What's in a win? The hot debate right now in baseball, thanks largely in part to Brian Kenny, is what to do about the win stat for pitchers. He's started this idea that we should "kill the win" because it means nothing. I won't go into his no-hitter nonsense because I find that to be nothing more than an attention grab. But this idea that the pitcher wins mean nothing is interesting. I'll be the first one to say it's probably the most unfair statistic when it comes to baseball. But the notion that we could just do away with it is beyond preposterous.
The win/loss column for pitchers would seem to tell you a lot about that player. This is simply not true. Take Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg for example. Kershaw is 7-5 this year, by all means, not impressive. Strasburg is an even less impressive 4-6 so far this season. But Strasburg's ERA is 2.24 and his ERA+ is 167. Kershaw is currently at 1.93 and 189! But their record indicates they're having seasons that by any measurement is poor to barely average. But reading just a little further proves that's simply not the case. Both guys have been incredibly effective when it comes to their job; getting hitters out.
Another important aspect of this debate is run support. We all know Max Scherzer is 13-0 right now. Quite impressive. But it certainly doesn't hurt that he leads all of MLB when it comes to getting runs at 6.82 per game. Guess who is last on that list. Yup, Strasburg 2.44 runs per game. So even if he throws a quality start he's still statistically likely to lose. Kershaw was actually getting the 2nd lowest runs per game until this week when the Dodgers exploded for 8 when they trounced the Rockies. Now he's getting the 11th fewest. A lot more goes into the game than just pitching. I'm not even going to bring up things like inherited runners or blown saves. This'll just get way too long if I talk about those. To put it bluntly, neither should effect the starting pitcher's win/loss record.
Remember back in 2010 when Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young Award? His record that year was 13-12. 1 win above .500, yet he was deemed the best pitcher in the American League. I thought for sure this would be a clear turning point for baseball. While the range of statistics that are talked about has become more and more popular, people still focus on the win. But why shouldn't they? The game is all about winning and losing right? You don't ask someone, "hey, who had the quality start last night." No, you ask them who won. It's understandable that people are going to look at pitcher win/loss records. Let's be honest here, the typical baseball fan doesn't understand WAR, ERA+, or even WHIP. Sure they're easily explained, but they're not concerned with all those fancy numbers. They want to know who won and who lost.
I don't mean to talk down to anyone or sound like I'm holier than thou. I'm just saying that the majority of people who fill the stands aren't sabermatricians. They're casual fans who like watching the game when they get a chance. But for those of us who obsess over this crazy game, something should be done. Focusing on wins for a pitcher for awards is just plain irresponsible. We've already seen the voters do it once, hopefully it becomes more prevalent. I'm in no way suggesting we "kill the win" as that would alienate a ton of fans and it's completely unnecessary. Pitchers have been "winning" games for over 100 years, that shouldn't change. The thought process on what makes a pitcher successful, at least statistically speaking, should.
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Friday, July 5, 2013
Thursday, June 6, 2013
Biogenesis: Bust Or Busted?
So this Biogenesis story keeps getting weirder huh? At first, and I mean at first as in this week, it sounded like Ryan Braun, ARod, and the rest of the players who are connected to the now-defunct Miami clinic were up the proverbial creek without a paddle. Turns out, that may not be the case.
It has now been revealed that Tony Bosch, founder of Biogenesis, struck a deal with MLB in order for his testimony against the players. Originally Bosch was facing a lawsuit from MLB. apparently he went to Alex Rodriguez and asked for money to aid in his legal defense. ARod, in his infinite wisdom (and I'm not really sure if I'm being sarcastic there or not), denied his request. Bosch then went to MLB and said that if they drop their lawsuit against him, he'll testify against the players. Not exactly what you'd call a credible witness. The player's union is going to have field day with this guy.
This whole thing brings up 3 big questions in my mind. One, do I care about these players who allegedly used performance enhancing drugs supplied by Bosch's clinic? Well, kinda. I'm fully convinced Ryan Braun took PEDs in his MVP year, we already know ARod has taken them in the past as he's admitted to it, and there are a handful of other guys that it's not really hard to believe did as well. But do I care? I guess I do. If they broke the rules they should be punished. But it doesn't really change my opinion of them. There is no one on the list that I really root for or follow. Like I said, if they did the crime they need to do the time, but it's not really shocking that there are MLB players using PEDs. There was a whole damn era named after it. We know that professional athletes in all sports, don't kid yourselves NBA and NFL fans (especially NFL), are going to do whatever they can to gain an edge. I'm not suggesting all or even the majority of them are, but it's blatantly clear that PED use isn't going to stop any time soon.
Secondly, will these suspensions actually happen? I'd like to think so, but I'm starting to seriously second guess it. If Bosch is the only witness MLB has and his only evidence is some notebooks and receipts, you have to like the player's chances. Guess what, I can write a bunch of stuff down that says Mariano Rivera has been on juice since 1994. That doesn't make it true. For the record, I'm not suggesting Rivera has ever taken anything illegal, it's just an example. Chill. What I'm getting at is without any positive tests it's going to incredibly difficult to make any suspensions stick. The player's union will fight that every step of the way and I'd have to believe they'd win. Hell, they got Braun's positive test from 2011 overturned because some FedEx guy left in the fridge too long. I'm still pissed about that if you couldn't tell. There's a reason the MLBPA is considered one of the strongest unions in the country, they're not going to take this lying down.
Lastly, where do we go from here? It's widely reported that the vast majority of players want PEDs out of the game. Fine, prove it. Tell the union reps that you want drug testing done several times a week, including blood, and I'll believe that. I guarantee every single team has a player either currently using something or seriously exploring the idea. Why not use HGH? They didn't start testing for it until this year. Not only that, is this list of 20 guys clearly didn't come up dirty and they're some of the biggest names in the game. So assuming they did use PEDs from Bosch's clinic, they obviously got away with it on the tests. And therein is MLB's problem in this case. None of these guys ever tested positive. How can you suspend someone for violating the drug policy when they didn't test positive for the drugs? Last time I checked it's not illegal to talk to a drug dealer.
The case that MLB had against these players took a major blow when the news broke about Bosch's attempted deal with ARod. There is no way that's the last leg of this story either. Instead of jumping to conclusions about who is going to be suspended and for how long, like I did initially, let's wait and see how this thing plays out. It's going to be a long summer.
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It has now been revealed that Tony Bosch, founder of Biogenesis, struck a deal with MLB in order for his testimony against the players. Originally Bosch was facing a lawsuit from MLB. apparently he went to Alex Rodriguez and asked for money to aid in his legal defense. ARod, in his infinite wisdom (and I'm not really sure if I'm being sarcastic there or not), denied his request. Bosch then went to MLB and said that if they drop their lawsuit against him, he'll testify against the players. Not exactly what you'd call a credible witness. The player's union is going to have field day with this guy.
This whole thing brings up 3 big questions in my mind. One, do I care about these players who allegedly used performance enhancing drugs supplied by Bosch's clinic? Well, kinda. I'm fully convinced Ryan Braun took PEDs in his MVP year, we already know ARod has taken them in the past as he's admitted to it, and there are a handful of other guys that it's not really hard to believe did as well. But do I care? I guess I do. If they broke the rules they should be punished. But it doesn't really change my opinion of them. There is no one on the list that I really root for or follow. Like I said, if they did the crime they need to do the time, but it's not really shocking that there are MLB players using PEDs. There was a whole damn era named after it. We know that professional athletes in all sports, don't kid yourselves NBA and NFL fans (especially NFL), are going to do whatever they can to gain an edge. I'm not suggesting all or even the majority of them are, but it's blatantly clear that PED use isn't going to stop any time soon.
Secondly, will these suspensions actually happen? I'd like to think so, but I'm starting to seriously second guess it. If Bosch is the only witness MLB has and his only evidence is some notebooks and receipts, you have to like the player's chances. Guess what, I can write a bunch of stuff down that says Mariano Rivera has been on juice since 1994. That doesn't make it true. For the record, I'm not suggesting Rivera has ever taken anything illegal, it's just an example. Chill. What I'm getting at is without any positive tests it's going to incredibly difficult to make any suspensions stick. The player's union will fight that every step of the way and I'd have to believe they'd win. Hell, they got Braun's positive test from 2011 overturned because some FedEx guy left in the fridge too long. I'm still pissed about that if you couldn't tell. There's a reason the MLBPA is considered one of the strongest unions in the country, they're not going to take this lying down.
Lastly, where do we go from here? It's widely reported that the vast majority of players want PEDs out of the game. Fine, prove it. Tell the union reps that you want drug testing done several times a week, including blood, and I'll believe that. I guarantee every single team has a player either currently using something or seriously exploring the idea. Why not use HGH? They didn't start testing for it until this year. Not only that, is this list of 20 guys clearly didn't come up dirty and they're some of the biggest names in the game. So assuming they did use PEDs from Bosch's clinic, they obviously got away with it on the tests. And therein is MLB's problem in this case. None of these guys ever tested positive. How can you suspend someone for violating the drug policy when they didn't test positive for the drugs? Last time I checked it's not illegal to talk to a drug dealer.
The case that MLB had against these players took a major blow when the news broke about Bosch's attempted deal with ARod. There is no way that's the last leg of this story either. Instead of jumping to conclusions about who is going to be suspended and for how long, like I did initially, let's wait and see how this thing plays out. It's going to be a long summer.
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Monday, June 3, 2013
10 Things I Think I Think So Far About The MLB Season
Sorry Peter King (yeah, like he'll ever see this) but I'm stealing your 10 things I think I think idea. Anyways, below you'll find 10 things that I think we can tell about the MLB season through 2 months. And away we go...
1-I think the Dodgers are in major trouble. Forget all the injuries, this just isn't a team built to win. The bullpen is nothing short of atrocious, they don't have a closer, and their offensive production outside of Adrian Gonzalez is simply not good. Unless it's Kershaw or Ryu on the mound going at least 8 innings, it's tough to have faith in the Dodgers winning.
2-I think the AL East is going to be a lot more fun than we expected. The Red Sox are currently in first place by 2.5 games over Baltimore. The Yankees and Rays are both 3 games back. Remember when everyone picked the Blue Jays to run away with the division? Yeah, I told you that wasn't going to happen. They're 10.5 games back and it doesn't look like things are going to turn around any time soon. The other 3 teams however have all been better than I expected. I didn't think the Red Sox pitching would be as good as it has been, I never expected the Yankees to compete this early on with so many injuries and a thin rotation, and while I did pick the Orioles to win the division I didn't think they'd be 7 games over .500 at this point in the season. The AL East is definitely going to be a lot of fun to watch this summer.
3-I think the Angels have once again dug themselves a hole they won't be able to get out of. They're 10.5 games out of the division lead, and only 1 game better than the Mariners and 5 games better than the pitiful Astros. Speaking of the Astros, the Angels can't beat them!! They have trouble scoring runs, they're bullpen is shaky at best, and other than Weaver and Wilson their starting rotation is ugly.
4-I think Miguel Cabrera is better than we thought. Seriously, can anything stop this guy? He's hitting .367 right now, best in the league, has 17 home runs which is the 2nd most in baseball, and he has 65 RBIs already which again is best in the league. He's absolutely tearing the cover off the ball. If he can keep up this torrid pace, and we saw last season that he's capable of doing just that, we might be talking about a 2nd Triple Crown. No one has ever done that. I know it's early to bring up such a thing, but it's hard not to right now.
5-I think we need some form of instant replay in baseball. Too many dumb mistakes have been made so far this season. Missed calls on home runs, plays at first base, and most recently a pickoff at 2nd that ended a game. I realize human error is a part of the game, and I like that. But it seems to me that umpires are getting lazy. Too many calls have been missed simply because the umpire has been out of position. My simple replay suggestion/solution. Have the crew chief wear a pager and another umpire in the booth or clubhouse or whatever watching on TV. If there is a questionable call, the umpire in the booth pages the crew chief to let him know he's looking at the play. Once he does he then pages the umpire to let him know if the call was correct or incorrect. I don't want strikes and balls to be a part of this, only safe or out, home runs, and fair or foul calls.
6-This one probably isn't going to be popular, but oh well. I think I'm sick of the Mariano Rivera farewell tour already. Yeah it was cool when he threw out the first pitch against the Mets and was honored in a pre-game ceremony. The only problem was this was a road game for the Yankees! What are the Mets thinking? Mo is by far the greatest closer of all time. They should just induct him into the Hall of Fame right now. He's a great pitcher and an even better person. But I'm tired of all the tributes. Let the man go out and do his job and celebrate him once he's actually retired. If you know me, you know I hate the Yankees. This has nothing to do with that. They should be honoring him every chance they get. I'm sick of all the other teams doing it. Plus it has be worried what's going to happen if Derek Jeter announces that he's going to play one more season and then retire.
7-I think the Nationals have no idea what they're doing. I'm not going to sit here and speculate on what might have been if Strasburg hadn't been shut down last year. But I am going to say that this latest injury scare should show them they need to just let him pitch. Careers can end in the blink of an eye. You don't play for next season or two seasons from now, you play for this year. They -26 in terms of run differential and are watching the Braves take the NL East with relative ease. There is no reason that they should be losing as much as they are and not scoring more runs than they are. Also, they have to learn how to play without Bryce Harper. Having a 20-year-old kid as the centerpiece of your team isn't going to work in any professional sport, but especially in baseball.
8-I think the NL Cy Young race is going to be as good this year as it ever has been, at least in recent memory. Patrick Corbin is 9-0 with a 2.06 ERA. Clayton Kershaw is 5-3 with a 1.85 ERA, and both of those stats would be better if the Dodgers aforementioned bullpen didn't allow a ridiculous number of inherited runners to score. Shelby Miller currently leads the NL in ERA at 1.82, and Matt Harvey is having a breakout season and is 5-0 right now with a 2.17 ERA. If all this keeps up, the NL Cy Young award could be just as big of a debate that the AL MVP was last year.
9-I think MLB has to do something about Jeffery Loria and the Marlins. If I was Giancarlo Stanton I'd do everything in my power to not play this year. That team is 16-41 so far this year, by far the worst in baseball, and they're not going to get any better. Loria clearly doesn't care about winning and built a brand new stadium under the guise of he was going to bring talent to Miami. Well he did, and when they didn't perform he sent them all away. I don't what, if anything, MLB can do. But something has to be done to get the Marlins a new owner.
10-I think I'm not drinking the Evan Gattis Kool-Aid just yet. The guys is clearly good and is going to hit a lot of home runs. He's currently on pace for 35 home runs, 93 RBIs, and a .922 OPS. If he does that, then yes, fill up my glass. But he's hitting .269 right now and his last 16 games have been against the Dodgers, Nationals, Blue Jays, Twins, and Mets. Those aren't exactly teams that strike fear in the hearts of opposing hitters except for Kershaw and Harvey. He did hit .317 for the month of May, and if he does that in June I'll definitely be a believer. But for right now, I'm just not convinced he's a guy who didn't just have a great month.
So there it is. 10 things I think I think about the MLB season so far. Depending on the reaction this gets I'll keep doing these. Hopefully the legal department at Sports Illustrated doesn't come hunt me down because I totally stole Peter King's idea. Then again, they're probably busy with something NFL-related. I'm not too worried.
Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports
1-I think the Dodgers are in major trouble. Forget all the injuries, this just isn't a team built to win. The bullpen is nothing short of atrocious, they don't have a closer, and their offensive production outside of Adrian Gonzalez is simply not good. Unless it's Kershaw or Ryu on the mound going at least 8 innings, it's tough to have faith in the Dodgers winning.
2-I think the AL East is going to be a lot more fun than we expected. The Red Sox are currently in first place by 2.5 games over Baltimore. The Yankees and Rays are both 3 games back. Remember when everyone picked the Blue Jays to run away with the division? Yeah, I told you that wasn't going to happen. They're 10.5 games back and it doesn't look like things are going to turn around any time soon. The other 3 teams however have all been better than I expected. I didn't think the Red Sox pitching would be as good as it has been, I never expected the Yankees to compete this early on with so many injuries and a thin rotation, and while I did pick the Orioles to win the division I didn't think they'd be 7 games over .500 at this point in the season. The AL East is definitely going to be a lot of fun to watch this summer.
3-I think the Angels have once again dug themselves a hole they won't be able to get out of. They're 10.5 games out of the division lead, and only 1 game better than the Mariners and 5 games better than the pitiful Astros. Speaking of the Astros, the Angels can't beat them!! They have trouble scoring runs, they're bullpen is shaky at best, and other than Weaver and Wilson their starting rotation is ugly.
4-I think Miguel Cabrera is better than we thought. Seriously, can anything stop this guy? He's hitting .367 right now, best in the league, has 17 home runs which is the 2nd most in baseball, and he has 65 RBIs already which again is best in the league. He's absolutely tearing the cover off the ball. If he can keep up this torrid pace, and we saw last season that he's capable of doing just that, we might be talking about a 2nd Triple Crown. No one has ever done that. I know it's early to bring up such a thing, but it's hard not to right now.
5-I think we need some form of instant replay in baseball. Too many dumb mistakes have been made so far this season. Missed calls on home runs, plays at first base, and most recently a pickoff at 2nd that ended a game. I realize human error is a part of the game, and I like that. But it seems to me that umpires are getting lazy. Too many calls have been missed simply because the umpire has been out of position. My simple replay suggestion/solution. Have the crew chief wear a pager and another umpire in the booth or clubhouse or whatever watching on TV. If there is a questionable call, the umpire in the booth pages the crew chief to let him know he's looking at the play. Once he does he then pages the umpire to let him know if the call was correct or incorrect. I don't want strikes and balls to be a part of this, only safe or out, home runs, and fair or foul calls.
6-This one probably isn't going to be popular, but oh well. I think I'm sick of the Mariano Rivera farewell tour already. Yeah it was cool when he threw out the first pitch against the Mets and was honored in a pre-game ceremony. The only problem was this was a road game for the Yankees! What are the Mets thinking? Mo is by far the greatest closer of all time. They should just induct him into the Hall of Fame right now. He's a great pitcher and an even better person. But I'm tired of all the tributes. Let the man go out and do his job and celebrate him once he's actually retired. If you know me, you know I hate the Yankees. This has nothing to do with that. They should be honoring him every chance they get. I'm sick of all the other teams doing it. Plus it has be worried what's going to happen if Derek Jeter announces that he's going to play one more season and then retire.
7-I think the Nationals have no idea what they're doing. I'm not going to sit here and speculate on what might have been if Strasburg hadn't been shut down last year. But I am going to say that this latest injury scare should show them they need to just let him pitch. Careers can end in the blink of an eye. You don't play for next season or two seasons from now, you play for this year. They -26 in terms of run differential and are watching the Braves take the NL East with relative ease. There is no reason that they should be losing as much as they are and not scoring more runs than they are. Also, they have to learn how to play without Bryce Harper. Having a 20-year-old kid as the centerpiece of your team isn't going to work in any professional sport, but especially in baseball.
8-I think the NL Cy Young race is going to be as good this year as it ever has been, at least in recent memory. Patrick Corbin is 9-0 with a 2.06 ERA. Clayton Kershaw is 5-3 with a 1.85 ERA, and both of those stats would be better if the Dodgers aforementioned bullpen didn't allow a ridiculous number of inherited runners to score. Shelby Miller currently leads the NL in ERA at 1.82, and Matt Harvey is having a breakout season and is 5-0 right now with a 2.17 ERA. If all this keeps up, the NL Cy Young award could be just as big of a debate that the AL MVP was last year.
9-I think MLB has to do something about Jeffery Loria and the Marlins. If I was Giancarlo Stanton I'd do everything in my power to not play this year. That team is 16-41 so far this year, by far the worst in baseball, and they're not going to get any better. Loria clearly doesn't care about winning and built a brand new stadium under the guise of he was going to bring talent to Miami. Well he did, and when they didn't perform he sent them all away. I don't what, if anything, MLB can do. But something has to be done to get the Marlins a new owner.
10-I think I'm not drinking the Evan Gattis Kool-Aid just yet. The guys is clearly good and is going to hit a lot of home runs. He's currently on pace for 35 home runs, 93 RBIs, and a .922 OPS. If he does that, then yes, fill up my glass. But he's hitting .269 right now and his last 16 games have been against the Dodgers, Nationals, Blue Jays, Twins, and Mets. Those aren't exactly teams that strike fear in the hearts of opposing hitters except for Kershaw and Harvey. He did hit .317 for the month of May, and if he does that in June I'll definitely be a believer. But for right now, I'm just not convinced he's a guy who didn't just have a great month.
So there it is. 10 things I think I think about the MLB season so far. Depending on the reaction this gets I'll keep doing these. Hopefully the legal department at Sports Illustrated doesn't come hunt me down because I totally stole Peter King's idea. Then again, they're probably busy with something NFL-related. I'm not too worried.
Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Oh Donny Boy
It's been awhile since there has been so much speculation about an MLB manager getting fired as there is right now about Don Mattingly. It seems like every writer, fan, and analyst thinks he should be giving his walking papers. While I don't necessarily disagree with them, it's not really all that easy.
Yes, the Dodgers are bad right now. They're in last in the NL West with a record of 19 and 26. They're team payroll is north of $200 million and they're simply not winning. But they're only 6 games out of first, and it's May. I know the expectations are high, but lets not freak out quite yet. Also, what has Mattingly done to deserve to get fired? Is it his fault the team isn't scoring runs? Not really, most of that blame should fall on the hitting coach. Is he to blame for their miserable bullpen? Nope, he didn't go out and spend millions upon millions of dollars on players that forced management to let veteran guys go. He didn't not sign a legit closer in the offseason. You certainly can't blame him for the multitude of injuries they have. So why is he getting the blame?
It's simple really, he's the manager. He's the one who does the press conferences, he's the guy they show in the dugout on TV. Mattingly is essentially the fall-guy. They could get rid of McGwire and Honeycutt but changing pitching and/or hitting coaches midseason hardly seems like a reasonable thing to do. They can't fire the players, so who is left? The manager.
Mattingly didn't do himself any favors on Wednesday when he benched Andre Ethier and then essentially called him for not being tough enough. I don't even know what that means to be honest. Does he think Ethier isn't trying to make plays and get on base? Odd thing to say. What it does tell me is that Mattingly is fed up and sounds like he's looking for a way out. He went from saying things like "we or us" when referring to the team and used "I and my." That just won't sit well. Not only did he criticize one of the team's most popular players, but he also went after the front office. You just can't do that these days. Is he right in saying they weren't able to keep experienced guys on the team because they spent so much in the offseason? Absolutely he is. But you just don't say it publicly. He criticized his employer and basically blamed them for the team's poor record. Not the brightest of ideas.
Look, I'm not saying Mattingly should be fired, but I think he has to be at this point. The Dodgers need to make a change, and right now that's the only change that can be made. The front office has to respond to what Mattingly said on Wednesday. They can't just let him criticize players and upper management without some sort of action. Several sources have said he'll be the manager at least until the start of the series with the Cardinals on Friday, but his future after that is unknown, at least to the public. Also, I don't think the Dodgers want to have a situation like there was in Boston last year. Bobby Valentine wasn't right for that team and for whatever reason they waited until after the season to let him go. It might not have changed much if anything, but it shows that the front office is paying attention to more than just dollar signs.
If the Dodgers continue to be cellar dwellers, Mattingly is gone. Actually, unless they win the World Series he's probably gone. His contract is up at the end of the season. Anything short of a miracle at this point won't save his job. What will be interesting is what happens with Ethier. I can't imagine he's too pleased by what was said about him on Wednesday and if they don't pick things up I won't be surprised if he's no longer wearing Dodger Blue by the trade deadline. Things are a mess in LA right now, and while they did win their series against the Brewers, I don't think that's going to turn their season around. Not suggesting that Mattingly getting fired will, but I can't imagine them winning a few games here and there will save his job.
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Yes, the Dodgers are bad right now. They're in last in the NL West with a record of 19 and 26. They're team payroll is north of $200 million and they're simply not winning. But they're only 6 games out of first, and it's May. I know the expectations are high, but lets not freak out quite yet. Also, what has Mattingly done to deserve to get fired? Is it his fault the team isn't scoring runs? Not really, most of that blame should fall on the hitting coach. Is he to blame for their miserable bullpen? Nope, he didn't go out and spend millions upon millions of dollars on players that forced management to let veteran guys go. He didn't not sign a legit closer in the offseason. You certainly can't blame him for the multitude of injuries they have. So why is he getting the blame?
It's simple really, he's the manager. He's the one who does the press conferences, he's the guy they show in the dugout on TV. Mattingly is essentially the fall-guy. They could get rid of McGwire and Honeycutt but changing pitching and/or hitting coaches midseason hardly seems like a reasonable thing to do. They can't fire the players, so who is left? The manager.
Mattingly didn't do himself any favors on Wednesday when he benched Andre Ethier and then essentially called him for not being tough enough. I don't even know what that means to be honest. Does he think Ethier isn't trying to make plays and get on base? Odd thing to say. What it does tell me is that Mattingly is fed up and sounds like he's looking for a way out. He went from saying things like "we or us" when referring to the team and used "I and my." That just won't sit well. Not only did he criticize one of the team's most popular players, but he also went after the front office. You just can't do that these days. Is he right in saying they weren't able to keep experienced guys on the team because they spent so much in the offseason? Absolutely he is. But you just don't say it publicly. He criticized his employer and basically blamed them for the team's poor record. Not the brightest of ideas.
Look, I'm not saying Mattingly should be fired, but I think he has to be at this point. The Dodgers need to make a change, and right now that's the only change that can be made. The front office has to respond to what Mattingly said on Wednesday. They can't just let him criticize players and upper management without some sort of action. Several sources have said he'll be the manager at least until the start of the series with the Cardinals on Friday, but his future after that is unknown, at least to the public. Also, I don't think the Dodgers want to have a situation like there was in Boston last year. Bobby Valentine wasn't right for that team and for whatever reason they waited until after the season to let him go. It might not have changed much if anything, but it shows that the front office is paying attention to more than just dollar signs.
If the Dodgers continue to be cellar dwellers, Mattingly is gone. Actually, unless they win the World Series he's probably gone. His contract is up at the end of the season. Anything short of a miracle at this point won't save his job. What will be interesting is what happens with Ethier. I can't imagine he's too pleased by what was said about him on Wednesday and if they don't pick things up I won't be surprised if he's no longer wearing Dodger Blue by the trade deadline. Things are a mess in LA right now, and while they did win their series against the Brewers, I don't think that's going to turn their season around. Not suggesting that Mattingly getting fired will, but I can't imagine them winning a few games here and there will save his job.
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Thursday, May 2, 2013
First Impressions
April has come and gone and the MLB season is in full swing. Now that there have been enough games played to show some real trends it's a good time to reflect on what we've seen so far. There have been some surprises, some disappointments, and some just as we expected. Not going to go team by team here, just going to point out my thoughts so far.
Biggest surprises-Have to go with the Red Sox and Rockies here. The Red Sox currently have the best record in baseball at 19-8 and the Rockies are 3rd best at 17-10. I said in my MLB preview that I thought the Sox would make the playoffs. I did not however expect them to look as good as they have. Their starting pitching has been much better than anyone anticipated, thank you very much John Farrell, and they have the best run differential in MLB right now at +47. If things continue the way April went, we could see Boston making a serious title run.
The Rockies have been equally surprising, if not more so. No one I saw had them anywhere above about 75 wins this year before the season began. That hasn't stopped them though. They've scored the second most runs out of any team and their team ERA is 10th in MLB. If they can stay healthy they could very easily be this year's 2012 Oakland A's. They're going to have a tough time with this as the Giants are clearly still very good and the Dodgers should pick things up if/when they get healthy. For now though, the Rockies are turning a lot of heads and rightly so.
And as much as I hate them, the Yankees deserved to be mentioned. They're way better than I think anyone anticipated. Kind of scary to think about the players they're going to get back later this season.
Biggest Disappointments-Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Angels. All three of these teams made big offseason acquisitions and all three haven't done squat with them. Granted the Dodgers are dealing with a ridiculous amount of injuries but they should be scoring more runs. They're second to last in batting average, runs, and 3rd worst in slugging percentage in MLB. That simply isn't going to win ball games. Add in the injuries to Greinke and Billingsley and this season could seriously be slipping away from them.
The Angels and their fans have to be sick of this. Their owner breaks the bank and signs guys to massive contracts only to have them fall flat on their faces in April. Josh Hamilton is so lost at the plate he couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat right now. They've only got 2 regular starters hitting over .300 right now and their team ERA is 4.91 which is next to last in MLB. They're simply not a good team right now. The scariest thing for Angels fans is there is no Mike Trout waiting in the wings to come rescue them this year. He's already there and he's only hitting .270 right now. Will he pick it up? Absolutely. But there is no way he's going to put up numbers like he did last year. And if he does, they should just enshrine him in Cooperstown right now. All of this and I didn't even mention their bullpen. Which is terrible. Their save percentage right now is 38%, 2nd worst in all of baseball.
Toronto has to be the biggest disappointment of all. Nearly everyone I saw picked them to win the AL East with relative ease. I'm not really sure why, the guys they got didn't do ANYTHING last year except for Dickey. But Dickey isn't a typical pitcher. It's not like they got a guy like Kershaw or Verlander. They got a guy who had an ERA lower than 4.62 only once before last year. He throws a completely unpredictable pitch and is therefore a completely unpredictable pitcher. The amount of pressure heaped on the Blue Jays doomed them from the time Spring Training started.
So what does this all mean? Nothing. It's only May, we still have a TON of games to play. But if these trends continue there are going to be a lot of analysts and experts in line for a nice crow dinner. Not to mention managers and GMs on the hot seat. You have to think Scioscia is worried about his job and Mattingly can't be too comfortable right now either. It's a long season, can't wait to see how the rest of it plays out.
Follow me on Twitter-@TwittinSports
Biggest surprises-Have to go with the Red Sox and Rockies here. The Red Sox currently have the best record in baseball at 19-8 and the Rockies are 3rd best at 17-10. I said in my MLB preview that I thought the Sox would make the playoffs. I did not however expect them to look as good as they have. Their starting pitching has been much better than anyone anticipated, thank you very much John Farrell, and they have the best run differential in MLB right now at +47. If things continue the way April went, we could see Boston making a serious title run.
The Rockies have been equally surprising, if not more so. No one I saw had them anywhere above about 75 wins this year before the season began. That hasn't stopped them though. They've scored the second most runs out of any team and their team ERA is 10th in MLB. If they can stay healthy they could very easily be this year's 2012 Oakland A's. They're going to have a tough time with this as the Giants are clearly still very good and the Dodgers should pick things up if/when they get healthy. For now though, the Rockies are turning a lot of heads and rightly so.
And as much as I hate them, the Yankees deserved to be mentioned. They're way better than I think anyone anticipated. Kind of scary to think about the players they're going to get back later this season.
Biggest Disappointments-Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Angels. All three of these teams made big offseason acquisitions and all three haven't done squat with them. Granted the Dodgers are dealing with a ridiculous amount of injuries but they should be scoring more runs. They're second to last in batting average, runs, and 3rd worst in slugging percentage in MLB. That simply isn't going to win ball games. Add in the injuries to Greinke and Billingsley and this season could seriously be slipping away from them.
The Angels and their fans have to be sick of this. Their owner breaks the bank and signs guys to massive contracts only to have them fall flat on their faces in April. Josh Hamilton is so lost at the plate he couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat right now. They've only got 2 regular starters hitting over .300 right now and their team ERA is 4.91 which is next to last in MLB. They're simply not a good team right now. The scariest thing for Angels fans is there is no Mike Trout waiting in the wings to come rescue them this year. He's already there and he's only hitting .270 right now. Will he pick it up? Absolutely. But there is no way he's going to put up numbers like he did last year. And if he does, they should just enshrine him in Cooperstown right now. All of this and I didn't even mention their bullpen. Which is terrible. Their save percentage right now is 38%, 2nd worst in all of baseball.
Toronto has to be the biggest disappointment of all. Nearly everyone I saw picked them to win the AL East with relative ease. I'm not really sure why, the guys they got didn't do ANYTHING last year except for Dickey. But Dickey isn't a typical pitcher. It's not like they got a guy like Kershaw or Verlander. They got a guy who had an ERA lower than 4.62 only once before last year. He throws a completely unpredictable pitch and is therefore a completely unpredictable pitcher. The amount of pressure heaped on the Blue Jays doomed them from the time Spring Training started.
So what does this all mean? Nothing. It's only May, we still have a TON of games to play. But if these trends continue there are going to be a lot of analysts and experts in line for a nice crow dinner. Not to mention managers and GMs on the hot seat. You have to think Scioscia is worried about his job and Mattingly can't be too comfortable right now either. It's a long season, can't wait to see how the rest of it plays out.
Follow me on Twitter-@TwittinSports
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Green Jacket Time
RJ Bell of Pregame.com just sent out his awesome rundown of odds for The Masters. Check it out, pretty interesting to see who the bookmakers think will win. Some cool prop bets too.
Big-Name Long shots:
(best score wins between two golfers)
Tiger Woods ($190 wins $100)
vs
Rory McIlroy ($100 wins $170)
Tiger Woods ($190 wins $100)
vs
Phil Mickelson ($100 wins $170
Phil Mickelson ($110 wins $100)
vs.
Rory McIlroy ($110 wins $100)
Masters Odds:
TIGER WOODS: 7/2 ($100 wins $350)
RORY McILROY: 12/1
PHIL MICKELSON: 15/1
JUSTIN ROSE: 22/1
LEE WESTWOOD: 25/1
KEEGAN BRADLEY: 25/1
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN: 25/1
CHARL SCHWARTZEL: 25/1B
BRANDT SNEDEKER: 30/1
DUSTIN JOHNSON: 30/1
ADAM SCOTT: 32/1
MATT KUCHAR: 33/1
LUKE DONALD: 35/1
BUBBA WATSON: 35/1
TIGER WOODS: 7/2 ($100 wins $350)
RORY McILROY: 12/1
PHIL MICKELSON: 15/1
JUSTIN ROSE: 22/1
LEE WESTWOOD: 25/1
KEEGAN BRADLEY: 25/1
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN: 25/1
CHARL SCHWARTZEL: 25/1B
BRANDT SNEDEKER: 30/1
DUSTIN JOHNSON: 30/1
ADAM SCOTT: 32/1
MATT KUCHAR: 33/1
LUKE DONALD: 35/1
BUBBA WATSON: 35/1
Big-Name Long shots:
SERGIO GARCIA: 50/1
JIM FURYK: 66/1E
ERNIE ELS: 125/1
VIJAY SINGH: 150/1
FRED COUPLES: 150/1
TOM WATSON: 2000/1
JIM FURYK: 66/1E
ERNIE ELS: 125/1
VIJAY SINGH: 150/1
FRED COUPLES: 150/1
TOM WATSON: 2000/1
Tiger Woods Props
Will Tiger Woods win Masters?
Yes: $100 wins $350 (22% chance)
No: $420 wins $100 (78% chance)
Will Tiger Woods OR Rory McIlroy win Masters?
Yes: $100 wins $250 (28% chance)
No: $300 wins $100 (72% chance)
Will Tiger Woods make the cut?
Yes: $1,400 wins $100 (91% chance)
No: $100 wins $1,000 (9% chance)
Lowest round by Tiger Woods: over/under 67.5
Highest round by Tiger Woods: over/under 72.5
Over/Under for Tiger Woods finish position: over/under 4.5 place
Will Tiger Woods win by 5 or more shots: $100 wins $1,200
Will Tiger Woods lead (or tie for lead) after all FOUR rounds: $100 wins $1,600
Will Tiger Woods have a hole-in-one? $100 wins $8,000
How many majors will Tiger Woods win in 2013?
Zero: $130 wins $100 (52% chance)
One: $100 wins $200 (31% chance)
Two: $100 wins $700 (11.5% chance)
Three: $100 wins $2,000 (4% chance)
Four: $100 wins $6,600 (1.5% chance)
Yes: $100 wins $350 (22% chance)
No: $420 wins $100 (78% chance)
Will Tiger Woods OR Rory McIlroy win Masters?
Yes: $100 wins $250 (28% chance)
No: $300 wins $100 (72% chance)
Will Tiger Woods make the cut?
Yes: $1,400 wins $100 (91% chance)
No: $100 wins $1,000 (9% chance)
Lowest round by Tiger Woods: over/under 67.5
Highest round by Tiger Woods: over/under 72.5
Over/Under for Tiger Woods finish position: over/under 4.5 place
Will Tiger Woods win by 5 or more shots: $100 wins $1,200
Will Tiger Woods lead (or tie for lead) after all FOUR rounds: $100 wins $1,600
Will Tiger Woods have a hole-in-one? $100 wins $8,000
How many majors will Tiger Woods win in 2013?
Zero: $130 wins $100 (52% chance)
One: $100 wins $200 (31% chance)
Two: $100 wins $700 (11.5% chance)
Three: $100 wins $2,000 (4% chance)
Four: $100 wins $6,600 (1.5% chance)
General Props
Winning Score: over/under 275.5
What age will the winner be: over/under 34.5 years old
Lowest round, any golfer: over/under 65
Will any golfer have a hole-in-one: Exactly 50% chance!
Over/Under for Phil Mickelson finish position: over/under 10.5 place
Winning Score: over/under 275.5
What age will the winner be: over/under 34.5 years old
Lowest round, any golfer: over/under 65
Will any golfer have a hole-in-one: Exactly 50% chance!
Over/Under for Phil Mickelson finish position: over/under 10.5 place
Big-Name Match-ups
(best score wins between two golfers)
Tiger Woods ($190 wins $100)
vs
Rory McIlroy ($100 wins $170)
Tiger Woods ($190 wins $100)
vs
Phil Mickelson ($100 wins $170
Phil Mickelson ($110 wins $100)
vs.
Rory McIlroy ($110 wins $100)
(Odds are a consensus from multiple Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. LVH deserves mention for being especially creative with golf odds)
While I don't think Tiger is going to win, I do like those odds. He's playing well and he knows now is the time. Other than that I really like the Over for the lowest round at 65, and I definitely like Tiger to beat Phil. I'd like to pick someone to win the whole thing, but I just don't know. There have been way too many first-time winners over the past 2 years in majors for me to make a confident pick. But like I said, if someone gave me $100 to put on one guy, it's hard to ignore the decent payout for picking Tiger. If it was my money, I'd focus strictly on the prop bets.
Again, big thanks must go out to RJ Bell of Pregame.com. He really is the best in the business when it comes to this stuff.
Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports
Monday, April 1, 2013
2013 MLB Predictions
I'm like a kid on Christmas Eve right now. Can't sleep because I know when I wake up, there is going to be presents under the tree, err, on the TV. Baseball is back. Finally. Here are my predictions for this season.
AL East-As much as it pains me, I'm going to go with the Orioles winning the division. I can see Boston getting a Wild Card spot, or at least being in contention late in the year. For all those singing the praises of the Blue Jays I have one question. How did all those guys do last year? They were awful. Just because they got traded doesn't mean they're going to regain their form. Plus Toronto has a new manager. I think they'll finish better than the Yankees (praying for a 65-win season out of them) but I don't think they'll be much of a threat to the playoffs. The Orioles got hot last year at the right time. I think that confidence boost will carry over.
AL Central-Tigers. Unless one of their key guys gets hurt, who in that division is better? No one, that's who. They're far and away the best team in the division.
AL West-This one is tricky. The numbers say go with the Angels. They said that last year too and they missed the playoffs. I don't think they'll win the division, but I do think they get a Wild Card spot. I think Texas takes the division this year. Yes they lost Hamilton but they have so many other guys that can help fill that void I don't think they'll miss him too much. The Angels will be tough, but they lack a decent bullpen. I also don't see much leadership on that team. No one seems to want to step in and be "that guy."
NL East-I think this one is going to come down to the final week of the season between Atlanta and Washington. What will Strasburg look like without a leash? Will Kimbrel be unstoppable this year? How will the Braves play without Chipper on the field? There are so many exciting story-lines in the NL East I can't wait to see those teams go at it. Apologies to Mets and Marlins fans, that's gotta suck. Either way, I have Atlanta and Washington both making the postseason.
NL Central-The Cardinals, I guess? Losing Carpenter would be a lot bigger if he'd been there last year. They know how to win without him. The Brewers could make some noise, but I just don't think they have the arms to get it done down the stretch.
NL West-Hopefully I not putting the jinx on my boys, but I'm going with Big Blue. I think this is the year the Dodgers put it all together. Yes, they spent a boatload of money. I'll be the first one to tell you that buying a championship is much more difficult now than it was 15 years ago. However, they already had a good amount of talent on that team, with established leaders, so I don't think bringing in the stars they did will have a negative impact. This is another race that I think will come down to the finals weeks. The Giants are still a very good team. They proved last year they know how to win even when Lincecum struggles. Cain is now the ace of that staff and with Romo anchoring the 'pen they are definitely a scary team. I'll say the Dodgers win the division and the Giants will take a Wild Card spot.
Awards
NL Cy Young-Kershaw. He's just too good. If he's healthy, I'll take him over anyone else in baseball right now.
NL MVP-Three names come to mind for this one. Joey Votto, Matt Kemp, and Andrew McCutchen. All three are already bonafide stars in the league. Kemp may have trouble because he has so much talent around him. 'Cutch will have trouble because the Pirates probably won't win enough games for him to receive the recognition he clearly deserves. Seriously, think about how bad they would be without him. Votto is my front-runner.
NL Rookie Of The Year- Travis D'Arnaud. He's probably going to be the guy that gives Mets fans hopes and dreams for the next few seasons.
AL Cy Young-Man it's hard to go against Verlander here, so I won't. He's filthy. He throws hard, he goes deep into games, and he's in a weak division that will inflate his win total and shrink his ERA. That's not to suggest he isn't good, he's amazing. Easily one of the top 5 pitchers in all of baseball.
AL MVP-Have to go with Mike Trout here. I argued last year that he should've been the MVP and I think this year he'll make it impossible not to vote for him. He's too good to have a sophomore slump and with more experience under his belt I can see him running away with this award.
AL Rookie Of The Year-I'm going with Jackie Bradley Jr. here. Yes I'm a homer. I know it, and I'll freely admit it. But you can't deny his talent. If he can put together a year where he hits about .280 with 20-25 home runs and 30-35 stolen bases, he can take this award. Plus, if the Red Sox can make the playoffs, it's going to hard to ignore his contributions. Again, I know I'm a homer. Get over it.
I'm going to say the Rangers win it all this year too. I think this is the year they finally get over the hump. If Yu Darvish can pitch consistently as well as we all know he can, that's going to be a tough team to beat 4 out of 7 games. However it shakes out though, I'm just thrilled baseball is back. So there ya go, my predictions for the MLB season. Agree? Disagree? Think I'm unworthy of watching baseball? Well, in the wise words of The Dude, "that's just, like, your opinion, man."
Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports
AL East-As much as it pains me, I'm going to go with the Orioles winning the division. I can see Boston getting a Wild Card spot, or at least being in contention late in the year. For all those singing the praises of the Blue Jays I have one question. How did all those guys do last year? They were awful. Just because they got traded doesn't mean they're going to regain their form. Plus Toronto has a new manager. I think they'll finish better than the Yankees (praying for a 65-win season out of them) but I don't think they'll be much of a threat to the playoffs. The Orioles got hot last year at the right time. I think that confidence boost will carry over.
AL Central-Tigers. Unless one of their key guys gets hurt, who in that division is better? No one, that's who. They're far and away the best team in the division.
AL West-This one is tricky. The numbers say go with the Angels. They said that last year too and they missed the playoffs. I don't think they'll win the division, but I do think they get a Wild Card spot. I think Texas takes the division this year. Yes they lost Hamilton but they have so many other guys that can help fill that void I don't think they'll miss him too much. The Angels will be tough, but they lack a decent bullpen. I also don't see much leadership on that team. No one seems to want to step in and be "that guy."
NL East-I think this one is going to come down to the final week of the season between Atlanta and Washington. What will Strasburg look like without a leash? Will Kimbrel be unstoppable this year? How will the Braves play without Chipper on the field? There are so many exciting story-lines in the NL East I can't wait to see those teams go at it. Apologies to Mets and Marlins fans, that's gotta suck. Either way, I have Atlanta and Washington both making the postseason.
NL Central-The Cardinals, I guess? Losing Carpenter would be a lot bigger if he'd been there last year. They know how to win without him. The Brewers could make some noise, but I just don't think they have the arms to get it done down the stretch.
NL West-Hopefully I not putting the jinx on my boys, but I'm going with Big Blue. I think this is the year the Dodgers put it all together. Yes, they spent a boatload of money. I'll be the first one to tell you that buying a championship is much more difficult now than it was 15 years ago. However, they already had a good amount of talent on that team, with established leaders, so I don't think bringing in the stars they did will have a negative impact. This is another race that I think will come down to the finals weeks. The Giants are still a very good team. They proved last year they know how to win even when Lincecum struggles. Cain is now the ace of that staff and with Romo anchoring the 'pen they are definitely a scary team. I'll say the Dodgers win the division and the Giants will take a Wild Card spot.
Awards
NL Cy Young-Kershaw. He's just too good. If he's healthy, I'll take him over anyone else in baseball right now.
NL MVP-Three names come to mind for this one. Joey Votto, Matt Kemp, and Andrew McCutchen. All three are already bonafide stars in the league. Kemp may have trouble because he has so much talent around him. 'Cutch will have trouble because the Pirates probably won't win enough games for him to receive the recognition he clearly deserves. Seriously, think about how bad they would be without him. Votto is my front-runner.
NL Rookie Of The Year- Travis D'Arnaud. He's probably going to be the guy that gives Mets fans hopes and dreams for the next few seasons.
AL Cy Young-Man it's hard to go against Verlander here, so I won't. He's filthy. He throws hard, he goes deep into games, and he's in a weak division that will inflate his win total and shrink his ERA. That's not to suggest he isn't good, he's amazing. Easily one of the top 5 pitchers in all of baseball.
AL MVP-Have to go with Mike Trout here. I argued last year that he should've been the MVP and I think this year he'll make it impossible not to vote for him. He's too good to have a sophomore slump and with more experience under his belt I can see him running away with this award.
AL Rookie Of The Year-I'm going with Jackie Bradley Jr. here. Yes I'm a homer. I know it, and I'll freely admit it. But you can't deny his talent. If he can put together a year where he hits about .280 with 20-25 home runs and 30-35 stolen bases, he can take this award. Plus, if the Red Sox can make the playoffs, it's going to hard to ignore his contributions. Again, I know I'm a homer. Get over it.
I'm going to say the Rangers win it all this year too. I think this is the year they finally get over the hump. If Yu Darvish can pitch consistently as well as we all know he can, that's going to be a tough team to beat 4 out of 7 games. However it shakes out though, I'm just thrilled baseball is back. So there ya go, my predictions for the MLB season. Agree? Disagree? Think I'm unworthy of watching baseball? Well, in the wise words of The Dude, "that's just, like, your opinion, man."
Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports
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