Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Kings Win Game 1

Ok, now that my heart rate has finally returned to normal, I can write about Game 1 of the 2012 Stanley Cup Finals, and what a game it was.

First off, there were more missed chances and strange bounces in this game than in any other game I've watched this postseason. Even the Devils goal was an oddity. After looking at the replays multiple times, it sure looks like the puck glanced off of Voynov's shoulder and past Quick. Whatever happened, it was a strange play and it tied the game. The first goal of the series was a clean one though. Fraser snapped a quick shot past Brodeur and the Kings were out to a 1-0 lead. LA had plenty more opportunities, but after that Brodeur was locked in. I thought for sure the Kings were going to score on at least 2 chances, but it just didn't happen. Both goaltenders carried their teams into the 3rd period with the score tied.

The 3rd period was very different from the first two. The Devils looked like they were on a mission, and nothing was going to stop them. Somehow the Kings survived. After looking fairly dominant in the first 2 periods, they looked tired in the 3rd. Luckily Quick was able to come up with some HUGE saves and the bounces went LA's way. I was so sure the Kings were going to give up a goal, but they didn't and forced OT.

Then, sure enough, in overtime, the Devils continued pouring on the offense. But Quick stood strong, as did Brodeur when the Kings got their chances. All of sudden though, on a broken play, and thanks to a strong behind the back pass, Anze Kopitar found himself with the puck and only Brodeur between him and the goal. He put those quick hands to work, deked Marty out of his pads, and slipped the puck under his leg and into the goal. Game over. Nothing against Brodeur, the guy has had an amazing career, but Kopitar made him look bad. It was a gorgeous goal, and one that could really give the Kings a lot of momentum.

The Kings confidence should be very high after winning yet another road playoff game. They still haven't lost away from the Staples Center in the playoffs, and Game 1 proved they aren't slowing down now. While it wasn't the prettiest of wins, it was a win nonetheless, and that's what matter. Quite a few analysts thought the week-long layoff was going to be a problem for the Kings, and to be honest, it looked like it was in the 3rd period. But they fought back and survived long enough to get the game winner. Hopefully they won't be as nervous on Saturday when the puck drops for Game 2, and they'll play all three periods in dominant fashion.

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Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Lets See That Again

Seeing as the subject of instant replay in baseball just won't go away, I figured why not throw my 2 cents out there. But first there is one thing you must know about me and my baseball addiction.

I'm a baseball purist. I hate pitch counts, ties in the All-Star Game, and interleague play. There isn't much about the game that I would change. I think it's pretty much perfect the way it is.

That being said, it's time for baseball to introduce expanded instant replay. I don't want the game taken over by robots, I just want calls to be made correctly. I realize that human error is a part of the game, that's fine. I don't want to see balls and strikes be a part of instant replay. But safe/out and fair/foul are both easily reviewable and  potentially game changing.

Don't give me any garbage about how instant replay would make the games even longer.  How hard would it be to add one more umpire to each crew, and his job was to sit in the press box or some other dedicated area and have the game on TV? For that matter, he doesn't even have to be in the stadium. With the amount of cameras trained on each game, there could be a crew of 6-10 guys in a room somewhere and their sole job was to wait for a page to come in and then look at the replay. Actually, this could probably be accomplished with 2 or 3 trained umpires. As for the time it would take, I sure would be willing to sacrifice 3-5 minutes (and it wouldn't take that long in probably 99% of the cases) in order to get the call correct. In most cases, it would take maybe 1-2 minutes.

As for how it would be decided when instant replay would be used, I suggest giving each manager 3 "challenges" to an umpire's call. Not only would this apply instant replay, but it would also significantly cut down on long drawn out, and utterly pointless arguments and in turn ejections. So the manager comes out, he tells the umpire he wants to challenge the ruling on the field, the crew chief radios the replay umpire, he reviews the call, radios back his decision, and the game resumes. I know it's much easier said than done, but I just don't see how a system like this would be difficult to implement.

Here is my biggest gripe when it comes to umpires. They aren't required to acknowledge their mistakes. Most, if not all umpires review the game after it has been played. Very few umpires who have blatantly blown calls have ever addressed it. That's what made Jim Joyce's apology when he totally tanked what would've been the final out of Armando Galarraga's perfect game that wasn't, such a big deal. He owned it. This is such a rarity in baseball, and it's embarrassing. We all make mistakes, it happens. But for these umpires to never have to answer or address anything that happens during the game is just ridiculous.

Some people think instituting replay for safe/out and fair/foul calls will just make umpires lazy. While this is an understandable notion, I don't agree. Would you call any of the NFL or NHL refs lazy? I sure wouldn't. Those guys have a reputation to uphold, and if their job is to get every call correct, wouldn't they want to prove themselves right?  Now I'm sure umpires are also hesitant to back instant replay because they don't want to eventually be replaced by technology. That's a perfectly logical thought, I just don't see that ever happening.

If we learned anything from last season from watching the Braves and the Red Sox, we learned that every game truly matters. If either of those teams had won just one more game, they would've made the playoffs. For the Sox, who knows what that could've meant. For the Braves, it would have kept the Cardinals out of the playoffs and therefore out of the World Series. So when one blown call leads to a run in a game that ends up being a one-run ballgame, it's a pretty big deal. It's time for baseball to step into modern times and adopt an expanded instant replay system.

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Monday, May 28, 2012

Kings Devils Stanley Cup Preview And Predictions

Well it all comes down to this. 4 wins stand between the Devils and the Kings for the coveted Lord Stanley's Cup. There has been no hotter team in the playoffs than the Kings, but the Devils haven't been cold either. Let's take a look at the stats and see if they can shed a little light on who has the advantage in this championship series.

Regular Season-New Jersey finished 7th overall in the NHL for the regular season with a record of 48-28-6 while the Kings ended up 17th with a 40-27-15 record. So right away, we can see the Kings lost one fewer game than the Devils, but won 5 fewer as well. This comes from the ridiculous amount of overtime games Los Angeles played in, which they were actually tied for 3rd most in the league. To me, this says the Kings are used to playing in very tight, close, pressure packed games, so I'm giving them the edge in the mental toughness area.

I've already gone over how inefficient the offense functioned for the Kings in the regular season. They were 2nd to last in goals per game throughout the regular season with a rate of 2.29. The Devils were in the middle of the pack, literally, they were 15th in the league in goals per game at 2.63.  So not a huge disparity, but the Devils were obviously better goal scorers over the course of the regular season. Goals against is a different story though. Again, I've gone over how good the Kings goaltending was this season, 2nd best in the league, 2.02 goals against per game. The Devils weren't bad by anyone's standards, 2.50 goals per game, good for 9th best in the NHL.

But to be perfectly honest, the regular season means nothing at this point. Yes it's nice to look back at statistics and hope they can tell you something, but really, it's the past few weeks that truly matter.

Post Season Stats-Unless you've been living under a rock somewhere, you know how good the Kings have been. They're 12-2 in the postseason so far, they're scoring 2.93 goals per game, and only allowing 1.93. The Devils are scoring 2.83 goals per game on average, so not much less than the Kings, but they're also allowing 2.33 goals per game. Yes Brodeur is a great goalie, but he's also 40 years old. The Kings goalie, Jonathan Quick is 26.  While he may not have the experience, he's got age on his side.  Father time is undefeated, and Quick has him in his corner.

Also, everyone knows that the Kings powerplay scoring percentage is atrocious, and the Devils is pretty good. But the Kings penalty kill has also been amazing, killing off 91.2 percent of penalties, and the Devils only kill off 74.2 percent. I think this favors the Kings. All three of the Kings earlier playoff opponents had a much better penalty kill unit than the Devils do. So I wouldn't be surprised if they Kings raise their powerplay goal count in this series and for the Devils to have their powerplay goal scoring dip.

The Kings are more rested, their younger, and they've been the hotter team. I just can't pick against those 3 things. They're peaking at the perfect time, and they aren't tired. I'm not suggesting the Devils are hot as well, but they've had to play 4 more games than the Kings to get to this point. That's 4 more games of taking hits, skating, practicing, and traveling that the Kings haven't had to endure. When it's all said and done, I'm predicting the Kings will win their first Stanley Cup in franchise history in 5 games. I know the popular pick is Kings in 6, but I don't think they'll lose twice in this series. If they show up like they did in Games 1 and 2 of their first 3 playoff series, and they should come back to LA with a 2 game lead, and be in familiar territory.

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Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Red Sox Gaining Momentum

While it's tough to say a team like the Red Sox who had such high pre-season expectations are gaining momentum when their record is .500 it's not completely untrue. They've won 10 of their last 13 and have taken the series against two different division leaders in the process. Are they where they need to be? No, but at least it looks like they're on the right track now.

The Sox are currently 3rd in team batting average and 2nd in runs scored in all of baseball. Granted their on-base percentage isn't that high, 8th overall, but if they keep hitting the way they are, there is no doubt that is going to rise. But to be honest, the offense isn't high on my list of concerns.

You can probably tell where this is going, I'm still concerned about the pitching staff. I already went over my issues with Buchholz, so I won't rehash that. And I know I've written about Daniel Bard and how I don't think he's a starter, but Wednesday's game proved it even further. Yes he picked up the win, but he's just not efficient enough. Especially with the way Buchholz has come to rely on the bullpen. Bard threw 90 pitches in 5.1 innings on Wednesday, 49 of which went for strikes. He walked 4, struck out 2, and gave up 2 earned runs.  These just aren't starting pitching numbers.  Between Bard and Buchholz, the bullpen is getting worked to death.

The starting staff has an ERA of 5.10, which is 3rd worst in all of baseball. Thankfully the bullpen has an ERA of 3.80, which while it isn't great, considering it was 5.54 during the month of April, it's definitely an improvement. I still think it would benefit the Red Sox if they moved Bard to the closer's spot, Aceves to the set up, and Padilla to the 5th spot in the rotation. Even keeping Aceves as the closer and putting Bard back into his 8th inning role would be beneficial.

All in all, I'm cautiously optimistic about the Red Sox right now.  Lester and Beckett are pitching much better, the offense is firing as we thought it would, and the bullpen has drastically improved. Also, at some point, the Sox are going to get Ellsbury, Crawford, Ross, Bailey, and Dice-K back.  Hopefully they can continue to build on this momentum, and be within striking distance of the division lead when the team gets healthy.

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Kingdom Come- Kings Advance To Stanley Cup Finals

For just the 2nd time in the 44 year history of the Los Angeles Kings, they will be playing for Lord Stanely's Cup. LA defeated the Phoenix Coyotes 4-3 in overtime on Tuesday night to clinch the series 4 games to 1.  It was undoubtedly one of the most exciting and stressful hockey games I've ever watched.

The Kings looked terrible to start the game. I was legitimately worried the series was turning to favor the Coyotes. Phoenix was outworking LA and getting all of the fortuitous bounces. Then Drew Doughty cranked a shot in that Anze Kopitar deflected past Mike Smith. It looked like things were turning around. Then the Kings got unlucky and had two goals slip past Quick that Phoenix didn't really earn. What I mean by that is they didn't set up a play or anything. The Kings just kind of "derped" and the Coyotes were able to capitalize. At the end of regulation, which consisted of 3 of the hardest fought periods I've seen all year, the score was tied at 3.

By far the biggest story that will come out of the game will be Dustin Brown's hit on Michal Rozsival just before Penner buried the series-clinching goal. Did he absolutely clobber him? Yes, no argument. But for those who are saying he meant to drive the top of his knee into the side of Rozsival's knee, I ask you this. Do you really think in the 2 seconds before they came together, Brown had enough time to think, "Hey, if I come in at this angle I'll be able to take out his knee"?  It's just not possible, the play happened too fast.  Also, if you watch the replay, it looks pretty clear that he was leading with his shoulder, not his knee. It was an unfortunate occurrence, but hey, that's hockey. Coyotes goalie Mike Smith was quoted as saying, "if Raffi Torres gets 25 game then he ought to be out forever." This really illustrates how dumb Smith must be. Headhunting a defenseless goalie behind the net is nowhere near the same as an open ice check. I understand that Smith is emotional and everything, but come on man. Think about how ridiculous that statement is. But then again, he flops like crazy and whacks guys in the back of their knees with his stick, so I'm not really surprised. Have fun golfing tomorrow Mike.

The Kings will face either the Rangers or the Devils for the Stanley Cup which will start on May 30th.  Currently their series is tied at 2 games apiece. Whoever LA faces, they are going to have to play better than they did tonight. If they can play like they did against the Canucks, Blues, or even the first 2 games of the Western Conference Finals, they have a very serious chance of bringing home the Stanley Cup for the first time in franchise history.

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Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Not Sure What To Do About Clay Buchholz

Every year it seems there is a pitcher who just doesn't get the job done, yet somehow ends up with a decent record. Right now, that pitcher is Clay Buchholz. His ERA is 7.84 yet his record is 4-2. This is thanks to the massive amount of run support he's received, which is actually the most of any starting pitcher in baseball to this point.  But obviously, something isn't right.

In 2010 Buchholz threw 173.2 innings, finished with a 17-7 record, and had an ERA of 2.33. It's obvious why the Red Sox saw him as an emerging star and rewarded him with a 4-year contract extension worth nearly $30 million. He had what many thought was that special quality you only see in a few young pitchers. But then, 2011 wasn't so kind to him. He only threw 82.2 innings as his season was cut short due to injury. What was even more alarming than his injury, was that his ERA ballooned to 3.48, more than a full run higher than the previous year. Obviously the injury played into this, but something just was off. He gave up 9 home runs in all of 2010, in his very short 2011 season, he gave up 10. The 2012 season has pretty much continued where he left off in 2011, which isn't a good thing obviously.

So far in 2012, Buchholz has already given up 11 home runs, 43 earned runs, walked 27 batters, and struck out 27. As it sits right now, opponents are hitting .330 against him. This is all in 49.1 innings pitched. It's a miracle he's won 4 games. He's pitched in 9 games so far this season, and has only one outing in which he gave up less than 3 earned runs. He's only made it to the 7 innings mark once. He just isn't right. I don't know what exactly it is, but his command is just gone. In 2010 he had a strikeout to walk ratio of nearly 1.8, that ratio is now 1/1. It doesn't take a genius or a baseball nerd (yes, like me) to figure out there is something wrong.

The only major change, other than his injury, has been the departure of John Farrell. Farrell left his post as the Red Sox pitching coach to become the manager of Blue Jays. Whatever magic he worked with Buchholz apparently left as well. As it sits right now, I dread seeing Buchholz's name as the starter.  You know instantly that not only will the offense have to carry him, but the bullpen is going to be worked hard.  He's just not a viable option at this point, especially seeing as he's supposed to be the number 3 starter. With the rumors of Roy Oswalt working out for Boston and Dice-K seemingly on his way back, Buchholz's spot in the rotation may be in serious jeopardy. Do I like the idea of keeping Bard in the starting rotation and having to move Buchholz to the bullpen or even worse, down to the minors? Absolutely not, but right now, he just isn't helping the team.

It really sucks too, I like Buchholz, a lot. I will never forget where I was when he threw his no-hitter, and I remember thinking, man, this kid is going to be an ace. Then in 2010 it really looked like it was his time to shine. But 2011 just didn't work out, I wasn't worried though. Injuries are a part of baseball, he had a ton of time to recover and regain his form, or so I thought.  Maybe he's still feeling the effects from that stress fracture in his back, who knows. Either way, he isn't really helping the team right now, and something is going to have to be done about it. It's not fair to the bullpen or the rest of the team to have to constantly be picking up his slack.

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Thursday, May 17, 2012

Kings Take Another 3-0 Series Lead

Stop me if you've heard this one before. The LA Kings are up 3 games to zero in a playoff series. It sounds familiar because it's happened in every series so far for the Kings in the playoffs this year. They beat the Phoenix Coyotes 2-1 on Thursday night, and don't show any signs of slowing down now.

To be honest, I was a little worried after the first period in Thursday's game. The Kings looked sluggish, weren't passing well, and looked very nervous when they had the puck in the Phoenix zone. Then when the Coyotes took a lead shortly after the 2nd period started, I really became worried. But Anze Kopitar put those worries to bed rather quickly. He tied the game on a breakaway and the momentum clearly swung in the Kings favor. They absolutely dominated the 3rd period, with Phoenix barely being able to cross into the Kings zone. They played good disciplined hockey, and just like it has for the whole playoffs, it payed off.

Sunday the Kings go for the sweep. Think about that. If the Kings win Sunday, they'll be in the Stanley Cup Finals having only lost 1 game so far in the playoffs. While there were some ESPN analysts who predicted they would make it that far before the season started, no one would have guessed they would be this dominant in the postseason.  They're peaking at the absolute perfect time, and everyone is contributing. Quick is standing on his head, the defense is playing great, and the offense is clicking. They're just playing really, really good hockey, and I'm enjoying every minute of it.

It's worth noting that Hanzal will be back for the Coyotes on Sunday, and since it's literally do or die for them, I expect a crazy game. Hopefully I'll have some good pictures to post.

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