Super Bowl Picks And Predictions

I've put this off long enough, it's time to make my Super Bowl predictions. I've looked at all the "experts" picks, all the stats I can find, and talked to my friends. I'm picking the San Francisco 49ers to beat the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.

This boiled down to one thing really. The Ravens have trouble stopping the run. They haven't played a team in the playoffs that has an above average ground game. San Francisco clearly has an above average rushing attack. Everyone keeps talking about how Kaepernick can't throw from the pocket, so all the Ravens have to do is contain him. Did anyone watch the 49ers beat the Falcons? There was only one play called that was a designed QB run. Kaepernick threw for 233 yards. That's not a ton, but the thing about the SF offense is they are versatile. In that game against Atlanta, Kap threw for a TD, Gore rushed for two, and LaMichael James rushed for two. Oh, and that TD that Kap threw was to Vernon Davis. So now in addition to having Crabtree and Moss, Kap has finally found Davis. This isn't an offense that can be stopped by playing one scheme. You have to be ready for anything and everything.

Now I'm not saying the Ravens defense isn't good. Lewis, Suggs, and Reed are all great. But I don't think they're fast enough to keep up with the SF offense. They stack the box to stop Gore, Kap either uses his legs or hits one of his 3 more than capable receivers. I just don't think the Ravens have seen anything like the 49ers offense. In fact, the two games they played against "running" quarterbacks, I prefer the term mobile but whatever, they lost. In week 2 they lost to the Eagles, giving up 371 yards in the air to Michael Vick. They contained him on the ground, but didn't do squat down the field. Yes that game was ages ago, but it's important. Also, they lost to the Redskins. This was in week 14, so much more recent. RGIII hit them for 242 yards in the air and 34 yards on the ground. Clearly they were more prepared for a mobile quarterback. Problem is, they gave up 129 yards on the ground to Alfred Morris, a rookie. That 'Skins offense is fairly similar to San Fran's. Baltimore had trouble against Washington, I have no reason to believe they won't have trouble against San Francisco.

If I was a gambling man, which I am 100%, my money is/will be on San Francisco. I like San Fran at -3.5 and I definitely like the over at 47.5, in fact I'd probably take the over if it was 51 or lower. My final score prediction is 34-24 and my MVP pick is of course Kaepernick.

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Hall of Fame Voters Toss A Shutout

The results everyone expected were confirmed Wednesday, no one has been elected to the baseball Hall of Fame this year. This was one of, if not the most controversial ballots in MLB history. Names like Clemens and Bonds appeared for the first time. Also making their inaugural appearance were Mike Piazza and Craig Biggio. But after the votes were counted, no one received enough votes to be enshrined in Cooperstown this year.

Like I said, coming into today it seemed as though this was going to be the outcome. Personally, I don't like it. I don't see how Biggio, who led all vote-getters with 68.2%, and Piazza, 57.8%, didn't get elected. Yes, I know they will eventually get in, but it only gets muddier from here. Guys like Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux will be eligible next year. They're sure to get take some votes away from Biggio and Piazza. That's not to mention guys like Jack Morris, who will be nearing the end of their time on the ballot.

The surprising result, to me at least, was the lack of a disparity between the amount of votes Clemens and Bonds got. Clemens got 37.6% and Bonds got 36.2% of votes. Even if you add their percentages together, they're still not eligible. For me, Bonds should never be enshrined, but I'd vote for Clemens.  Clemens never tested positive, and has never been convicted in anything related to performance enhancing drugs. The same can't be said for Bonds. I know that may be a thin line to some, but it's enough for me. That also means McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro, and when the time comes A-Rod would not get my vote. I simply don't think people who cheat should be honored with baseball's most prestigious individual honor.

I realize there are cheaters already in Cooperstown. The use of uppers, aka greenies, was rampant throughout baseball for decades. Sadly, there is nothing that can be done about that now. But electing more cheaters just because there are already people who cheated doesn't make it right. Like the old cliche says, two wrongs don't make a right. This isn't to suggest guys like Bonds weren't great. He was great. Perhaps one of the greatest hitters I'll ever see play the game. He put the bat on the ball amazingly well, and no amount of performance-enhancing drugs helped that. But I firmly believe his power numbers would've been nowhere near as high without PEDs, and that says to me he wouldn't have won as many awards.  The sad part in my mind is that Bonds would've been a Hall of Famer without using PEDs. There's no debate that he had an incredible amount of talent.

It is completely understandable why people think Bonds should be in the Hall of Fame. I'm not saying my way of thinking is right, it's just my opinion. I can argue for Bonds just as easily as I can argue against him. I do have one radical idea that will never happen. Cooperstown creates a wing that is just for cheaters. Members of the 1919 White Sox would be in there. Pete Rose would finally have a home. All of the steroid guys could go in. The selection process would be the same, but don't give them the induction ceremony. No speeches, no celebrations, just a plaque/bust/exhibit commemorating their achievements in the game and explaining why they are in this special wing of the Hall. Never going to happen, but I sure wouldn't be against something like this.

My ballot, if I had one, would've been-Biggio, Bagwell, Piazza, Clemens, Murphy, Morris, Schilling, and Edgar Martinez. If you filled out a ballot, who would you have voted for?

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A Tribute To Frank Pastore

Frank Pastore pitched 8 seasons in the Major Leagues. His best season was in 1980 when he won 13 games and posted a 3.27 ERA. For his career he won 48 games, lost 58, and his ERA was 4.29. By no means will his name ever grace Cooperstown, but his life was much more than baseball. 

He passed away Tuesday after a motorcycle accident in November left him in a coma.  I didn't see anything on Twitter, or Yahoo, or any major news website. I saw the story on the OC Register website, and immediately knew I'd be talking to my mom about it. She listened to his radio show for the past I don't know how many years, and frequently talked to me about him. I knew she would be upset about his passing, and she asked me to write a blog about him. Unfortunately I don't know much about the man, and I told her that if she wanted to write something, I'd be more than happy to post it. Here are her words. 

"I lost a friend yesterday. I didn't really know him, but I felt like I did. Frank Pastore died yesterday. After a month in a coma following a motorcycle accident, Frank succumbed to his injuries. I don't remember him as a baseball player, although he pitched for the Cincinatti Reds from 1979-1985, then for the Minnesota Twins in 1986. A line drive off the bat of Steve Sax at Dodger Stadium in 1984 shattered his pitching elbow and was the beginning of the end of his baseball career. Some of his teammates invited him to a BBQ after the elbow incident and asked him to stay for a Bible study. As a self proclaimed atheist, he voiced his criticism of Christianity and was challenged to read some books and critique the conclusions. After studying the books, he was unable to do so and knew his life was changed forever. He became the host of the Frank Pastore show in 2004 on KKLA-FM. That's when he became my friend. I learned of his baseball past by listening to his radio show. I learned about his path to Christianity from listening to his show. I grew to respect and admire him by listening to his show. He was open, honest and confident in his beliefs. He wanted the best for everyone, whether you agreed with him or not. This world needs more people like him. I already miss him."

Whether or not you're religious doesn't matter. We all make connections to people we've never met. For my mom, she had a connection with Frank Pastore.  This is why sports are so important to me. He had an effect on her life, just like John Wooden had an effect on mine. I remember exactly where I was the moment I heard Coach had died. I was at work and had to go in the back because I literally had tears running down my face. Even as I'm writing this it's hard not to get emotional. I never met Coach Wooden, but what I know about his life inspires me.  If it weren't for basketball, I'd probably never know about him.  Pastore is the same way. My mom learned from him on his show, a show he got in one way or another because he was a baseball player. There's a line from a song that comes to mind when I think about this that says, you'll always be here with me even when you're gone. I know I'll never forget about Coach Wooden and one day I'll tell my kids about him. Just like I know my mom will tell them about Frank Pastore.

It's Not That Easy

So Bob Costas and Jason Whitlock think handguns shouldn't be legal. During halftime of Sunday night's Cowboys/Eagles game, Costas quoted part of Whitlock's column concerning the tragedy caused by Jovan Belcher. ''In the coming days, Jovan Belcher's actions and their possible connection to football will be analyzed. Who knows? But here, wrote Jason Whitlock, is what I believe. If Jovan Belcher didn't possess a gun, he and Kasandra Perkins would both be alive today," Costas said while quoting Whitlock. This is incredibly irresponsible and inappropriate. 

First off, why is Costas on a soapbox during halftime of an NFL game? This isn't a news or opinion broadcast, this is a sports broadcast. He is certainly entitled to his opinion, but it was neither the time or the place for him to express it. One of the websites I contribute to has started a discussion forum about this very topic and already someone has brought up a great point; what about Chris Benoit? If you're unfamiliar, Benoit was a very popular professional wrestler who killed his wife, his son (age 7 at the time) and himself, all without the use of a firearm. So to say that Perkins and Belcher would be alive if he didn't have a gun is just wrong. He can't know that. You can't know that. I can't know that. Is it possible they'd both be alive? Absolutely it is. But it's just as possible that they would both still be gone.

I'm not going to hide the fact that I'm pro-gun. I'm a firearms enthusiast, but at the same time I can see the other side of the issue. I know guns are dangerous. They're not toys, they are tools. For that reason, I fully believe that anyone who is legally allowed to own a firearm should be able to if they so choose. It's a cliché, but if you outlaw guns, only outlaws will have guns. People who commit crimes don't care about the law, so outlawing guns won't stop them from owning, carrying, and using them. I'm not saying everyone should be armed to the teeth, but blaming guns isn't the answer. If guns commit crimes, then they also do a lot of good. Guns took out Bin Laden, not the heroes of Seal Team Six. You and I both know that's incorrect. A gun is a useless chunk of metal until it's in someone's hands.

Blaming the legality and availability of firearms isn't right. But it's not right to say that firearms had nothing to do with this either. Clearly Jovan Belcher was an irresponsible gun owner. I am curious as to whether or not he did legally purchase the gun he used, and if had it registered or a permit for it. That's not to suggest Belcher wouldn't have got his hands on a gun otherwise, or that if he didn't have a gun this horrible tragedy would still have happened. But to blame the gun, and not the man, as Costas and Whitlock did just isn't right. I feel bad for Perkins' friends and family, and I do for Belcher's. I feel the worst for the 3-month old baby who will grow up without either parent because of this. But placing the blame on an inanimate object? It's not that easy. There is far more to this horrific event than a gun. It's sad that NBC would allow Costas to make such a point.

I know everyone isn't going to agree with me on this. I realize there are people who are anti-gun, and that's fine. You're entitled to your opinion just as I am mine. If you'd like to discuss this further, I encourage you to comment. But if you're going to do so with a closed mind, save us both the time.

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The Big Mac In LA

Rumors are swirling all over the internet right now that the Dodgers and Mark McGwire are on the verge of a deal for him to become the hitting coach in LA. As you probably know, he's held the position in St. Louis for the past three seasons.

Nearly two months ago the Dodgers relieved Dave Hansen of his duties as hitting coach, and he has since moved on to the same position in Seattle. The Cardinals extended offers to all of their coaches, except their bullpen coach, but all of their contracts expired on October 31st. One report says McGwire has informed the Cardinals that he is going to accept the LA job, but there hasn't been anything from an official source.

My first reaction to this is that it's a great move. He's a proven hitter who worked well over the past few years with a lineup very similar to the Dodgers. I think Kemp and Ethier would benefit greatly from him, as would Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez. The Dodgers bats struggled mightily this year at times, and it became evident that Hansen had no answers. Yes this will bring even more attention on a franchise that is expected to not only contend for a division title, but is clearly aiming for a World Series ring NOW. The huge mid-season trade with Boston made it evident that the Dodgers new ownership group wants to win right away. They're not interested in a 5-year plan, at least not on the surface.

McGwire has long said that his family is very important to him, and since he lives in Orange County with his wife and 5 children, a move to a West Coast team makes sense. Stay tuned, I'll be sure to update this as soon as news becomes official.

UPDATE-The Dodgers have officially announced Mark McGwire as their new hitting coach. Not sure what took so long, but it doesn't matter. He's in LA and should definitely be an upgrade over Dave Hansen.

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"Sports" Illustrated

This is going to be a rant, so if you don't feel like listening to me complain, go ahead and just close the window now. I'm pissed off. I'm upset that Sports Illustrated is no longer the magazine I once loved. For the better part of the past decade I've had a subscription to Sports Illustrated, it's always been a birthday present from my parents. I looked forward each week to the new issue and reading stories from around the world of sports. Not anymore.

My love for SI first hit a bump earlier this year. I get my issue every Wednesday; always have, since day 1. However this year, right before March Madness began I didn't get it on Wednesday, I got it on Thursday. Normally not a big deal, but for someone who loves March Madness as much or more than the Super Bowl, I was upset. This is the issue that breaks down each team/region and gives you the pullout bracket you can fill in. Now it's entirely possible that this is because of the Post Office, but I thought I would bring it up to SI through their Twitter account. I voiced my displeasure/concern and they asked if I normally got my issue on Wednesday or Thursday. I said I've always gotten them in the past on Wednesday's, and their response was something to the effect of oh, well that stinks. Not exactly what you would call excellent customer service. But I brushed it off, not like there was anything they could do.

What really started this fire burning was when my Kings won the Stanley Cup. Their first Stanley Cup in the history of the organization. That would surely merit coverage and the cover of the most prominent sports publication in print journalism right? Nope. The covers of Sports Illustrated during July featured in order; Ken Caminiti, Josh Hamilton, Kevin Durant or LeBron, depending on where you live, LeBron again (this time attempting to dunk over Serge Ibaka, and if you didn't know any better you'd think he did, but in fact Ibaka totally stuffed him) and then to start off July LeBron was on the cover again. So depending where you live you might have received 3 straight issues with LeBron James on the cover. Wow. Talk about shoving it down our throats. The Stanley Cup is widely regarded as the most difficult trophy to win in North American professional sports, and it wasn't on the cover of Sports Illustrated. That's unacceptable. Not only that, but there was never a story written about the Kings winning the Cup. There was a story about Jonathan Quick that was great, but come on guys. I looked up covers to see when the last time the Stanley Cup Champions didn't appear on the cover, it was 2007 when the Ducks won. Apparently Southern California doesn't matter. What a joke.

The past two weeks have really made my blood boil when I've opened my mailbox on Wednesday. Last week Deron Williams was on the cover. I have no idea why. The NBA season is weeks away, the NFL season is in full swing, and the MLB playoffs were going on. Yet a player who is nowhere near the top 10 in the NBA on a team that finished 22-44 last year was on the cover. Not only that, but there was only 1 MLB story in the entire issue. This week, Tyrann Mathieu is on the cover. WHAT IS GOING ON?!?! Why is a player who had one good year, who isn't playing this year and isn't enrolled in school on the cover of a sports magazine? This makes absolutely no sense. Miguel Cabrera just won the Triple Crown. The Atlanta Falcons are 6-0 right now. The NHL is in the midst of yet another lockout. Even NASCAR is in the middle of their run towards the championship. But no, a college kid who got kicked off a team for drugs is on the cover. Disgusting. The major stories in this week's issue are college football (Alabama), college football (Mathieu, which really isn't college football seeing as he's NOT PLAYING THIS YEAR), Lance Armstrong and his legal troubles (better suited for Time magazine in my opinion), NFL (the Vikings punter is profiled, does anyone outside of Minnesota care?), and a baseball story that isn't related to the MLB playoffs. There is no mention of the playoffs except for the Leading Off section that shows some great pictures. But that's it. Football, football, football, and cycling. In the last two issues of Sports Illustrated there has been one story related to the MLB playoffs.

I looked up the cover and the stories in last year's Sports Illustrated from the same week. NASCAR superstar Jimmie Johnson was on the cover, and there were stories about the NFL, the MLB playoffs, college football, golf, and a little bit of basketball. Yes the NBA was in the middle of their lockout, so naturally coverage would be lighter. But still. Look at the difference between the two years. I'm sure it would be even worse if I dug through the issues I've saved (all of them) and looked at the diversity of stories from around the same time. Don't get me wrong, there are still things I love about SI. I love the Sign of the Apocalypse, the They Said It quote, By The Numbers, the back page article, and the Dan Patrick interview. I just want to be able to read stories from the world of sports, not just the world of football and basketball. Miguel Cabrera won the first Triple Crown in 45 years, how does that not merit some sort of story? I realize we'll probably get a feature story at some point in the next month or two, but come on guys. How is this not brought up without a story a page long or so?

Sports Illustrated used to be my go to source for sports information. You could find stats and stories that you wouldn't see or hear anywhere else. That's just not the case anymore. If it's not football or basketball, they just don't care. Yes there are baseball-centric issues, but they are so few and far between now that it's laughable. Hockey coverage is nearly non-existent, and forget soccer. I have no reason to ask for my subscription to be renewed. They don't cover the sports I'm most interested in. I realize the NFL and college basketball are the most popular sports in the country, but maybe that’s because the sports magazine with a circulation of over 3.2 million chooses to focus on them and nearly nothing else. The magazine no longer lives up to its name, the name Sports Illustrated is misleading.  It’s upsetting, but my wife will be thrilled that I won’t be getting more magazines I refuse to throw away, so at least there’s an upside.

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My AL MVP Vote Goes To....

I put this off for a while because I really wanted to gather as many statistics as I could before making a decision, and I apologize, this is going to be a long one. Living in Orange County, I saw a lot more of Mike Trout than I did Miguel Cabrera this season. Obviously I'm aware that Cabrera won the AL Triple Crown this year. Something that hadn't been done in 45 years, an amazing accomplishment for sure. But that shouldn't guarantee him the MVP award. It's Most Valuable Player, not Most Valuable Hitter. Trout set numerous rookie records and will undoubtedly win the AL Rookie of the Year award. But that too doesn't mean he deserves the MVP award. Let's dive into some numbers.

Defense-Simply looking at which player made more errors would be irresponsible. They play two completely different positions, so I went a little bit further than that. I went to overall fielding percentage. Trout had a total of 268 chances during the season, remember he was in the minors for the first month or so. Cabrera had 383 total chances. Clearly Cabrera is going to have more errors. He had more chances, and this was his first season playing 3rd base after moving from 1st. Cabrera's overall fielding percentage was .966 compared to Trout's which was .993 this year.

Another big stat in my mind is range factor. Range Factor is calculated by adding putouts and assists and then dividing that number by the total number of defensive innings played. To me, this gives a very accurate number on a player's defensive value. Trout's Range Factor was 2.70 and Cabrera's was 2.52. Again, I know they play different positions and Trout is going to have more chances to make putouts and Cabrera is going to have more assist opportunities. It's just one of the many things I considered when making my decision.

Offense- I don't think there is any reason to go over the big 3 statistical numbers. We all know Cabrera led the AL in home runs, batting average, and runs batted in. But it is worth mentioning that Trout was 2nd in average, .326 compared to .330. But let's extrapolate those numbers a bit. Cabrera struck out 98 times in 622 at-bats, Trout fanned 139 times in 559 trips to the plate this year. Cabrera also had 19 more extra base hits, but he also grounded into 28 double-plays compared to just 7 for Trout. Obviously it's easier for Cabrera to hit into double-plays since he's not a leadoff hitter and Trout is, but it's worth mentioning.

Also worth mentioning is the stat known as batting average on balls in play. Trouts BABIP this year lead the league at .378 while Cabrera checked in with a .322 average which is actually quite a bit lower than his .345 career average. This too can be attributed to Trout having significantly fewer at-bats than Cabrera, but to be honest, who knows how high it would have been for Trout had he played the full season.  Trout also lead the AL in stolen bases with 49 swipes while only being caught 5 times. Cabrera only stole 4 bases and was caught once this year. This again is a pretty unfair comparison because they are such different players, but it does need to be considered.

I hate the argument that Trout doesn't deserve the award because the Angels didn't make the the playoffs. Guess what, the Angels ended the year with a better record than Cabrera's Tigers did. Should Trout be "punished" because he played in a tougher division? That certainly doesn't seem fair. Think of this too, Trout played 50 games against AL West staffs that ranked 2nd, 4th, and 8th in AL ERA. Cabrera played 70 games against AL Central staffs that ranked 9th, 10th, 13th, and 14th in AL ERA. 

I also hate the argument that Trout's MLB leading 10.7 WAR automatically should give him the MVP award. Granted it's significantly higher than Caberera's 6.9 WAR, but it's not the end all be all. You can't argue with what Cabrera did at the plate this year. It's literally historic. We'll all be telling our kid's about his Triple Crown just like our parents told us about Yastrzemski's. But like I said earlier that shouldn't guarantee an MVP award. Ted Williams won two MVP's and two Triple Crowns, none of which happened in the same year.

If I had to vote, and I'm glad I don't, I'd vote for Cabrera. I feel he was overall more valuable to his team. This is what put me over the edge. While on the surface it looks like the Tigers would have more lineup protection for Cabrera, the stats tell me otherwise. As a team the Angels lead the AL in batting average while the Tigers were 3rd, .274 compared to .268. Not only that, but the Angels hit 24 more home runs than the Tigers did. I was fully prepared to vote for Trout until I saw these numbers. I thought his offensive output combined with his stellar defense gave him the overall value edge. But after considering all the aspects, Cabrera just eeks him out. People are saying that we should think about how bad the Angels would have been without Trout, and that's a great point. But think about how bad the Tigers would have been without Cabrera. In my mind, they both would have been much worse off, but the Tigers more so.

Like I said, I'm really happy I don't have a vote in this thing. In fact, I'd absolutely LOVE IT if they were named co-MVPs, but that isn't going to happen.... unless the Mayans really are right.

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