March Madness Is Here

Here's the most comprehensive information for March Madness that you'll find anywhere. Thanks to RJ Bell of Pregame.com. for providing me with this. 

Only TWO lower seeds favored:
(11) Minnesota -3 vs. (6) UCLA
(9) Missouri -3 vs. (8) Colorado State

Best first round point spread for each seed (i.e., best chance to win)
1: Gonzaga -21.5 vs. Southern
2: Duke -17.5 vs. Albany
3: Florida -20 vs. Northwestern St
4: Syracuse -14 vs. Montana
5: VCU -7 vs. Akron
6: Arizona -4 vs. Belmont
7: Creighton -3 vs. Cincinnati
8: Pitt -4.5 vs. Wichita St
9: Missouri -3 vs. Colorado State
10: Iowa St +1 vs. Notre Dame
11: Minnesota -3 vs. UCLA
12: Oregon +2.5 vs. Oklahoma St
13: New Mexico St +9 vs. St. Louis
14: Davidson +4 vs. Marquette
15: Pacific +12 vs. Miami-Fl
16: Western Kentucky +19.5 vs. Kansas

Best odds (seeds #1 through #8) to win TOURNAMENT:
1: Louisville 9/2
2: Duke, Miami-FL 8/1
3: Florida: 10/1
4: Michigan 18/1
5: Wisconsin 25/1
6: Arizona 50/1
7: Notre Dame, Creighton 100/1
8: North Carolina: 50/1

5 Teams with Strongest Early Round One Support
New Mexico St opened +10.5, now +9 vs. St. Louis
Albany opened +19, now +17.5 vs. Duke

Florida Gulf Coast opened +14.5, now +12.5 vs. Georgetown
San Diego St opened -1.5, now -3 vs. Oklahoma
Wisconsin opened -4, now -5.5 vs. Ole Miss

Odds to Win NCAA Title:
LOUISVILLE 9/2
INDIANA 7/1
DUKE 8/1
MIAMI FL 8/1
FLORIDA 10/1
KANSAS 10/1
GONZAGA 12/1
OHIO ST 15/1
MICHIGAN ST 18/1
MICHIGAN 18/1
GEORGETOWN 18/1
WISCONSIN 25/1
SYRACUSE 30/1
ST LOUIS 30/1
NEW MEXICO 30/1
MARQUETTE 40/1
ARIZONA 50/1
NORTH CAROLINA 50/1
VCU 60/1
NC STATE 60/1
KANSAS ST 60/1
PITTSBURGH 66/1
MISSOURI 100/1
MINNESOTA 100/1
NOTRE DAME 100/1
MEMPHIS 100/1
CREIGHTON 100/1
BUTLER 100/1
OREGON 100/1
OKLAHOMA ST 105/1
UCLA 105/1
UNLV 105/1
ILLINOIS 200/1
COLORADO 300/1
CINCINNATI 300/1
WICHITA ST 300/1
CALIFORNIA 300/1
SAN DIEGO ST 300/1
TEMPLE 500/1
VILLANOVA 500/1
IOWA ST 500/1
COLORADO ST 500/1
OKLAHOMA 500/1
OLE MISS 500/1
ST MARY'S 1000/1
DAVIDSON 1000/1
BELMONT 1000/1
LASALLE 1000/1
BOISE ST 1000/1
TEAM NOT LISTED 150/1

2012 NCAA Tournament Action:

Over $12 BILLION worldwide expected to be wagered on NCAA Tournament
That’s more action combined than on the Super Bowl!
Less than 1% of worldwide sports betting occurs in Nevada

Over 100 million people expected to take part in tournament bracket contests!

Perfect Bracket Odds:
There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible brackets (9.2 quintillion)
That's the number nine follow by eighteen zeros!
That’s ONE MILLION times bigger than 9 TRILLION!

Some examples of just how big this number is:

If everyone on the planet each randomly filled out a bracket, the odds would be over ONE BILLION to 1 against any person having a perfect bracket.

If one bracket per second was filled out, it would take 292 BILLION years to fill out all possible brackets (that's 20 times longer than the universe has existed).

If all the people on earth filled out one bracket per second, it would take over 43 years to fill out every possible bracket.

If all possible brackets were stacked on top of each other (on standard paper), the pile would reach from the moon and back over 1.1 million times.

All possible brackets (on standard paper) would weigh 90,000 times more than every man, women, and child on earth combined.

Even if a person had a 90% chance of winning each game he picked, his odds would still be 763 to 1 against picking a perfect bracket.

68 vs. 64 teams:
The calculations above assume a 64 team bracket – if expanded to consider 68 teams, multiple the figures by 4.

Bracket Picking Rules & Tips from Vegas!
(all records since modern era began in 1985 unless noted)

FIRST ROUND picks:
TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose.
#16 seeds are 0 for 112
#15 seeds are 6 for 112

TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win.
At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 24 of 28 years
#13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games

TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds.
#12 seeds have won at least one game 22 of 24 years
#9 seeds are 4 wins above .500 vs. #8 seeds

SECOND ROUND picks:
TIP: Advance #1 seeds into the 3rd round unless very good reason not to.
88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16

TIP: Keep advancing any #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
#10 and #12 seeds combined win about half the time in Round Two
#12 seeds have the same number of Sweet 16 appearances overall than #7 seeds
A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 26 of 28 years

TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed.
Only once in 28 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen

TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the 2nd round.
Only 7 of 448 teams (1.6%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12

Sweet 16 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8.
72% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8
(that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!)

TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8
26 have made it the Sweet 16, but only 1 has ever advanced

Elite 8 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 22 of 28 years

TIP: Advance no team worse than a #8 seed to the Final Four.
Only 3 of 112 Final Four teams have been seeded worse than #8

FINAL FOUR round picks:
TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game.
Only ONE team worse than #6 has made it in last 27 years

TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game
Since tournament seeding began 34 years ago (1979)
only 6 times have two #1 seeds made the finals

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick:
TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all.
For 24 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!

Thanks again to RJ Bell of Pregame.com for putting all of this together. I can't imagine how long it took, but I'm certainly grateful. There is a ton of good information here and some very helpful hints. Good luck to you all, unless of course you're in my bracket pool. If that's the case, disregard everything above.

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