Wednesday, August 13, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football QB Rankings

By now we all know the NFL is quarterback league. Yes, the Seahawks won the Super Bowl last year in dominant form thanks to their defense and running game. However, they are the exception not the rule. The majority of the teams that made the playoffs have high-profile quarterbacks. When it comes to fantasy football, your quarterback can literally make or break your season. Yes, your running backs are insanely important but we'll get to those later. Here are my 2014 fantasy football qb rankings.

1. Peyton Manning- This guy made my season last year. Did I expect 55 TDs? Absolutely not. Nor do I expect him to come close to those numbers this year. Yes, he lost Decker but he's still got Welker, Thomas, and now he's got Emmanuel Sanders. Add into that equation TE Julius Thomas and a backfield featuring Montee Ball and Peyton has more than enough weapons. He's going to be the first quarterback drafted in your league, and he should be. If he's available in the first round it's going to be hard not to grab him. Granted, if you have one of the first four picks you're going to have to do some serious consideration. If your league is standard scoring, 4 points for passing TDs but 6 for rushing or receiving, I'd probably go with a running back. But if you're in a league where all TDs are worth 6, it's really not possible to take Peyton too early.

2. Drew Brees- This guy is a certified fantasy football stud. Had Peyton not had the absolutely ridiculous season he did, the season Brees had would stand out so much more. 39 TDs, over 5,000 yards passing, and he completed 68.6 percent of his passes, just a touch more than Peyton's 68.3 percent. Brees is in a pass-first offense and there is no reason to think he's not going to have yet another big season. In a 10-team league I'd consider him with 8th, 9th, or 10th pick, provided of course you think you'll still be able to snag a star running back in the second round.

3. Aaron Rodgers- Don't look at his totals for last year. His injury absolutely destroyed his fantasy stats, but don't let that dissuade you. Rodgers is very much a top-tier quarterback, and given what he can do with his legs he should garner serious consideration in your draft plans. Rodgers has more rushing TDs than any other quarterback since 2008 outside of Cam Newton. He's got a big arm, a great receiving corp, and with attention expected to be shown toward Eddie Lacy, Rodgers could see even more time in the pocket. As with Brees I'd be comfortable drafting him late in the first round if I was sure I could still get enough talent in the second.

4. Tom Brady- Here's where Matthew Berry and I start to differ. He has Stafford ranked as his 4th best qb, which is understandable given the season he had last year. I just don't think the Detroit offense is going to be throwing as much as they did in 2013. The Patriots on the other hand will probably be throwing even more. Their rookie receivers are no longer rookies and they should be getting Gronk back. We saw what Brady is capable of with less-than-stellar receivers last year down the stretch; he was 4th best in the NFL in terms of fantasy points per game for quarterbacks from week 9 through week 17. I'll admit taking him late in the first round is risky, but you've got to bet big to win big.

5. Matthew Stafford- Ok, more on Stafford. Megatron had a pretty lousy season by his standards, have to think that won't happen again. Golden Tate gives them a vertical threat, and Stafford has thrown an absurd amount of passes over the past three seasons. In fact, Stafford has thrown more passes, 2,024, over the past three years than any other quarterback has in NFL history for a three-year period. Like I said above, I don't think he'll be throwing quite as much as he has been, but there should definitely be an upgrade in the quality of his receivers. Stafford will probably be taken earlier than he should be, but he's a safe pick once you're into the third round. I wouldn't take him earlier than that simply because you need strong running backs in order to compete. Then again, it all depends on your league rules. If it's qb-heavy, he's a safe pick in the mid-to-late second.

6. Colin Kaepernick- I don't understand why so many people have him ranked so low. He had an awful start to the 2013 season, but remember he hadn't even played a full season as the starter yet. I'm chalking that up to a "sophomore" slump. Kaepernick is definitely a dual-threat qb as well. He ranked 4th among quarterbacks last year in rushing with 524 yards (with 4 TDs) and still threw 21 touchdown passes. I actually think Harbaugh is going to loosen the reins on him this year and we're going to see Kaepernick run even more. If he's available after the third round, which he should be but probably won't, he's definitely worth grabbing.

7. Cam Newton- If the Panthers could actually get some top-level talent around Newton he'd make a serious run at the MVP. We've already seen what he can do mediocre support and he's going to have to do it again this season. Like Kaepernick, Newton is another dual threat guy. Newton scored more fantasy points with his legs than any other qb in the league last year and that was with a balky ankle. Offseason surgery should have that all fixed up, so I expect him to eclipse the century mark in rushing points (he had 88 last season). Newton is another guy who will more than likely be taken earlier than he should be, but he's no scrub. He got a taste of the postseason last year and he's going to be eager to get back there. Losing Steve Smith is going to hurt, but not as much as you may think. Smith only had 4 TDs last year and didn't top 750 yards. Newton should be just fine.

8. Andrew Luck- I've probably got him too low on this list to be perfectly honest. He scored the fourth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks last year which is impressive by itself. Then remember he was without Reggie Wayne for nine games. The Colts get Wayne back and added Hakeem Nicks. Plus they've got T.Y. Hilton who announced his presence with authority last year. Luck has a great receiving corp, isn't a afraid to throw the deep ball, cut his interceptions in half compared to his rookie year, and scored 4 times with his legs. Luck is poised to have a great year, my only concern is the running game in Indy. Richardson bombed once he got there which will only lead to increased pressure. If the running game falters again, Luck is going to be asked to do pretty much everything, and opposing defenses are going to know it. Still, he's going to be a top-ten fantasy qb this year, maybe even a top-five.

9. Matt Ryan- Last year was terrible for Matt Ryan. The offensive line for the Falcons was basically non-existent and he lost Julio Jones for much of the season. Despite all this Ryan was still able to rank 14th among quarterbacks in fantasy points. Assuming Jones can stay healthy this year, and the improvements Atlanta made to their o-line are as good as advertised, we should see Ryan have a big bounce back year. He's durable, he's got a big arm, and he's smart. The Falcons allowed 44 sacks last year, tied for most in the NFL, yet Ryan still threw 26 TDs and amassed over 4,500 passing yards with 17 interceptions. I won't be surprised at all if those numbers increase and while his picks drop.

10. Tony Romo, Nick Foles, Jay Cutler- Really, these are all the same guy. These are all guys who are viable starting quarterbacks in fantasy, but aren't really going to light up the scoreboard. Yes, I realize Foles had a great year last year. I don't see that happening again. All three of these quarterbacks have their pros and cons. In fact, you can probably add Phillip Rivers and Russell Wilson to this list here as well. There are definitely better options available, but you could do so much worse as well. Don't get stuck with Eli Manning or Carson Palmer.

Not having a solid quarterback on your fantasy roster is one of the dumbest moves you can make. There's a reason so many playoff teams have an above average qb, both in the actual NFL and in fantasy football. Keep in mind you're going to need a backup for at least your bye week, but you need a top-level starter. Someone you can plug in week after week and not be worried about the matchup.

Up next in the series, the top 10 fantasy football running backs for 2014

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