Two Sentence Predictions For All 30 MLB Teams

Rather than write a long, comprehensive prediction blog for the 2016 MLB season, I'm going to give you two sentences about each team as we prepare for Opening Day.

AL West:

Astros- They're going to be even better than last year. As long as they can stay healthy they've got a shot at running away with the division. 

Rangers- The only serious contenders for the Astros. They should be in the mix for a wildcard spot. 

Angels- Mike Trout and Garrett Richards should be fun to watch, and the addition of Andrelton Simmons should help. They nearly made the playoffs last year, but I don't think they've gotten better and I don't think they'll be as close to the postseason this year.

Mariners- More of the same. I just don't see them passing the Astros or Rangers. 

  

Athletics- The only thing more embarrassing than the Coliseum is the Athletics. I'll be shocked if they finish above 75 wins. 

AL Central:

Royals- I don't expect the defending champs to have much of a drop off. That said, the projections aren't kind to them for a reason and the division is wide open. 

Tigers- Their lineup is still very good and they improved their starting pitching. They will definitely push the Royals for the division.

White Sox- Reason number 3 why the AL Central division race should be fun is the Pale Hose. They have more questions marks in the lineup than the Royals or Tigers, but should still contend.

Indians- The Tribe improved their lineup, but didn't really address their pitching issues. It's possible they can surprise everyone and challenge for the division, but I doubt it. 

Twins- They could surprise everyone and contend, I just don't see it happening. I don't think they did nearly enough to improve upon last year's team compared.

AL East:

Red Sox- Consecutive last place finishes and a $17 million dollar 3rd baseman riding the pine. The Sox weren't as bad as their record indicated last year, and actually made some good signings this offseason, I fully expect them to be in the postseason. 

Yankees- The best bullpen in baseball got even better, but other than that they didn't do much in the offseason. There are big questions about the rotation and an aging lineup for the Bronx bombers, but they'll still be in the mix for the division title. 

Blue Jays- They went all-in last year and it nearly paid off, they just ran into a Royals team that didn't know how to lose. If the offense can be 80% of what it was last season there's no reason to think they won't be in the hunt for the playoffs. 

Orioles- They're just not a very good team. They have some very good players but they don't have strong rotation and I can't imagine a lineup that would do consistent damage. 

Rays- They have a good starting rotation but other than that it's slim pickings. Their bullpen wasn't good last year and could be worse this year, and their lineup doesn't exactly inspire any confidence. 

NL West: 

Dodgers- Spring Training wreaked havoc when it comes to injuries. But their depth is ridiculous and they should absolutely contend for a 4th straight NL West title. 

Giants- It's an even year, so why should the rest of the league even bother playing this season? The Giants will be better than last year, but I'm not sold as far as their chances at a 4 title in 6 years. 

Diamondbacks- I don't see many people putting them in the playoff picture. They made big splashes in the offseason and I expect them to contend for at least a wildcard spot if not the division title. 

Padres- This is not a good baseball team, there are so many holes up and down the lineup it's actually sad. But Petco Park is one of the best places in the country to watch a game, so at least there's that. 

Rockies- How close are we to naming Nolan Arenado as Troy Tulowitzki 2.0? He's an incredible talent that’s being wasted on a terrible team. 

NL Central:

Cubs- Is this the year the curse is finally broken? I don't think so but it certainly wouldn't surprise me, this Cubs team is legitimately stacked.  

Cardinals- They're the Cardinals, of course they're going to be good. However, this is probably the most competitive division in baseball right now, so it'll be a fight for the division.

  

Pirates- Should be in the mix for the division, but I expect them to fade late in the season. Could very well surprise us all again though, they have the talent. 

Reds- Gonna be another rough year in Cincy. At least Joey Votto will be fun to watch. 

Brewers- Not good. I fully expect a fire sale from Milwaukee this summer. 

NL East:

Mets- Last year's run was improbable to say the least. I fully expect them to win the division again, though I think another World Series run is unlikely.  

Nationals- The only threat to the Mets in the division but I doubt they challenge all that much. I don't think they got better in the offseason and who knows what Dusty Baker is going to do. 

Phillies- Probably won't make much noise this year, but they're finally headed in the right direction. Could surprise us all, but it would take quite an effort.  

Marlins- They have true superstar talent in Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton, but not much else. They should consider this season a success if they can finish with a .500 record. 

Braves- A bad team last year that looks to have gotten worse during the offseason. 70 wins from this group would be a surprise. 

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6 Things To Know Before Your Fantasy Football Draft

Tis the season for fantasy football drafts. The NFL is right around the corner and to millions that means the return of fantasy football. For some fans, the only chance they have at seeing their team win a championship is in fantasy. I would know being a Cowboys fan, so I take fantasy football pretty seriously. Probably a little too seriously.

Anyway, if you're actually trying to win your league this year there are some steps you should take before your draft. I've put together 6 simple things you should know before your fantasy football draft that will give you a better chance at not being a loser this year.

Here's what you should know:

1: The Rules- You won't be successful if you don't know the scoring rules in the league you're in. Are passing TDs worth 4 points or 6? Is it a PPR league? Do kickers get 15 points for field goals of more than 35 yards? (I actually played in a league like that. Kickers routinely went for 50 points. It was ridiculous.) You can't put together a draft strategy until you're clear on what the rules for your league are. Know them inside and out before draft day.

2: The Projections- Matthew Berry said in his Draft Day Manifesto that over the past 3 years, teams that make the playoffs average 93 points per week. If you head in to your draft knowing what players are projected to do for the season, and then just divide that by 16, then you at least have an idea of what your team is going to do on a week-to-week basis. Is that an exact science? Not even a little bit. But if you draft with an idea of what players are going to average weekly you've got a better shot at making the playoffs.

3: The Schedules- That's great that you drafted Cam Newton, Adrian Peterson, Kelvin Benjamin, and Lamar Miller. That's a solid starting squad. Problem is all of them are on a bye in week 4. You need to stagger your lineup so your top QB, RB, and WR aren't all on byes the same week. Same goes for your bench. If you end up with multiple positions on byes in the same week, you're going to have to pray you find some waiver wire miracles. Take a look at the bye week schedule before the draft and have them handy while you're drafting.

4: The Depth Charts- No one expects you to know the depth chart for every team, but you need to have an idea of who the top targets are for WRs and who the handcuffs are for RBs. Otherwise you run the risk of having a whole team of guys who aren't going to see the majority of the action. Not only that, but if you know who the backups are, you can be prepared for when someone gets hurt. And someone always gets hurt. Having an idea of who is next up on the depth chart will help you get that waiver claim in as fast as you can.

5: Defense Matters- So many people wait until the final rounds to draft their defense. I like to call those people idiots. Last year, in a standard scoring ESPN league, the difference between the top scoring defense, Seattle with 187 points, and the 10th scoring defense, Baltimore with 109, was 78 points. We'll round up, so it works out to 5 points per week between the top defense and the 10th defense. Are you telling me you can afford to just give away 5 points per week? And that's assuming you get the 10th best defense by waiting until the last few rounds. You can wait on a kicker, The top kicker last year scored 138 points and the worst scored 101. We're talking about an average of 2 points per week. That's using every kicker from last year. The difference per week between the top kicker and the 20th kicker was less than 1.5 points per week.

6: The Date, Time and Location of your Draft- If you're not sure when and where your draft is, ask the commish. If it's an online draft you really have no excuse to be late. If you have to autodraft because of some extenuating circumstances, so be it. But if you autodraft because you forgot when the draft was, then you forfeit all bragging rights for the season. You don't get to gloat about wins because you didn't draft your team. Also, if the draft is being held at someone's house, don't show up empty handed. Bring some chips and dip. Or a 12-pack. Or both. Both is best.

There you go. 6 simple things you need to know before your fantasy football draft. Good luck this season, unless you're in a league with me.

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2015 March Madness Bracket Tips

As usual, RJ Bell of Pregame.com has put together a great list of tips for this year's March Madness tournament. You'll be hard-pressed to find a better list of tips, facts, odds, and information.

*** 2015 NCAA Tournament Action:

Over $12 BILLION worldwide expected to be wagered on NCAA Tournament
That’s MORE action combined than generated by the Super Bowl!
(it’s estimated that less than 1% of worldwide sports betting occurs in Nevada

Over 100 million people expected to take part in tournament BRACKET contests!

Vegas Grades Committee

Vegas strongly agrees with Committee.
Pro Bettor David Malinsky says NO TEAM left out of Tournament would be favored against ANY at-large selection!
Said another way, Vegas feels as if the Committee was literally PERFECT picking the teams to include in the field.

Also no mistakes with #1 seeds. No non-#1 seed would be favored against any of the #1 seeds.

*** Kentucky

Toughest Tourney game for Kentucky? Vegas consensus says Wisconsin.
Projected spread: Kentucky favored by 5.5 over Wisconsin

Bookmaker Bob Scucci says the 1991 UNLV team would be favored by 6 points over this year's Kentucky team

Vegas Consensus says the 2012 Kentucky championship team would be favored by 3.5 points over this year’s Kentucky team.

Great college team vs. worst pro team?
Vegas estimate: NY Knicks would be favored by 15 points over Kentucky (assuming game played under NBA rules)

Kentucky was a 50/1 longshot to go undefeated when the prop was first offered at the start of the season!

*** Perfect Bracket Odds:

There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible brackets (9.2 quintillion)
That's the number nine followed by 18 zeros!
That’s over ONE MILLION times bigger than 9 TRILLION!

Some examples of just how big this number is:

If one bracket per second were filled out, it would take 292 BILLION years to fill out all possible brackets (that's 20 times longer than the universe has existed).

If all the people on earth filled out one bracket per second, it would take over 42 YEARS to fill out every possible bracket.

If everyone on the planet each randomly filled out a bracket, the odds would be over ONE BILLION to 1 against any person having a perfect bracket.

All possible brackets on normal paper would circle the globe over 21 MILLION TIMES.

All possible brackets (on standard paper) would weigh over 184 TRILLION TONS (that’s over 500 MILLION times more than the Empire State Building weighs)

68 vs. 64 teams:
The calculations above assume a 64 team bracket – if expanded to consider 68 teams, multiple the figures by 16.

*** 14 Bracket Picking Rules from Vegas!
(records since modern era began in 1985 unless otherwise noted)

ROUND OF 64 picks:
TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose.
#16 seeds are 0 for 120
#15 seeds are 7 for 120

TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win.
At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 26 of 30 years
#13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games

TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds.
#12 seeds have won at least one game 24 of 26 years (won 3 of 4 last year)
#9 seeds have a winning record against #8 seeds

ROUND OF 32 picks:
TIP: Advance #1 seeds into Sweet 16 in almost all cases.
88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16

TIP: Keep advancing any #12 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
#12 seeds have won 20 of 44 times in Round Two
#12 seeds have the same number of Sweet 16 appearances overall as #7 seeds
A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 28 of 30 years

TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed.
Only ONCE in 30 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen

TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the Round of 32.
Only 9 of 480 teams (less than 2%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12

SWEET 16 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly THREE #1 seeds into the Elite 8.
70% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8
(that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!)

TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8
26 seeds worse than 11 have made it the Sweet 16
but only ONE Elite 8 team (out of a total of 240) has been seeded worse than #11

ELITE 8 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 24 of 30 years

TIP: Advance no team worse than a #9 seed to the Final Four.
Only 3 of 144 Final Four teams (since 1979) have been seeded worse than #9

FINAL FOUR round picks:
TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game.
Only TWO Championship games have had any team worse than a #6 seed (in last 29 years)

TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game
Since tournament seeding began in 1979
#1 seeds have face off in the finals only 6 times

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick:
TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all.
25 of 26 years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!
(last year was the exception!)

UPDATE: 

Kentucky: EVEN MONEY ($100 wins $100)
Wisconsin 8/1
Duke 8/1
Villanova 10/1
Arizona 10/1
Virginia 12/1
Gonzaga 22/1
Notre Dame 25/1
Iowa St 30/1
North Carolina 30/1
Baylor 45/1
Kansas 45/1
Maryland 60/1
Utah 60/1
Oklahoma 60/1
Michigan St 70/1
Louisville 80/1
SMU 80/1
Wichita St 80/1
Northern Iowa 85/1
West Virginia 90/1

Game Spreads
(listing of team with most favorable spread for each seed – a great guide for bracket picking)

#1 Villanova -22 over Lafayette (two 1/16 matchups without spreads due to play-in)
#2 Arizona -23 over Texas Southern
#3 Iowa St -13.5 over UAB
#4 North Carolina -9.5 over Harvard
#5 Arkansas -7.5 over Wofford
#6 SMU -3 over UCLA (two 6/11 matchups without spreads due to play-in)
#7 Wichita St -5 over Indiana
#8 San Diego St -2.5 over St John’s
#9 Purdue -1 over Cincinnati
#10 Ohio St -2.5 over VCU
#11 Texas -1.5 over Butler
#12 Buffalo +4 vs. West Virginia.
#13 Valparaiso +5 vs. Maryland
#14 Georgia St +8.5 vs. Baylor
#15 New Mexico St +11.5 vs. Kansas
#16 Coastal Carolina +20 vs. Wisconsin

Vegas Grades Committee

Pro Bettor David Malinsky says NO TEAM left out of Tournament would be favored against ANY at-large selection!
Said another way, Vegas feels as if the Committee was literally PERFECT picking the teams to include in the field.

Also no mistakes with #1 seeds. No non-#1 seed would be favored against any of the #1 seeds.

Two examples of disagreements among the teams selected:
#11 Texas -1.5 over #6 Butler
#10 Ohio St -2.5 over #7 VCU

*** Kentucky

20/1 payoff if Kentucky never trails in ANY Tournament game

6/1 payoff if Kentucky wins EVERY GAME by double digits

How many total minutes will Kentucky trail in the entire tournament? Over/under 25 minutes

Toughest Tourney game for Kentucky? Vegas consensus says Wisconsin
Projected spread: Kentucky favored by 5.5 over Wisconsin

Kentucky is projected to be NOT less than a DOUBLE DIGIT favorite until at least the Final Four.

Bookmaker Bob Scucci says the 1991 UNLV team would be favored by 6 points over this year's Kentucky team

Vegas Consensus says the 2012 Kentucky championship team would be favored by 3.5 points over this year’s Kentucky team.

Great college team vs. worst pro team?
Vegas estimate: NY Knicks would be favored by 15 points over Kentucky (assuming game played under NBA rules)

Kentucky was a 50/1 longshot to go undefeated when the prop was first offered at the start of the season!

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There's Nothing Like It- Some Advice For Richard Sherman

This week news came out that Richard Sherman's girlfriend might go into labor during the Super Bowl. He was asked what he would do, and rightfully he didn't give a straight answer. Earlier today I saw a post saying his girlfriend said he should play in the game. As a brand new dad, I can say without hesitation that there is no way he should play if his child is being born.

First off, how do you explain that to you kid later in life? "Sorry, son. Dad wasn't there because he was playing a football game." Granted, it's a huge game, but in the grand scheme of life, it's still a game. Not only that, but I'd assume Sherman will have more than one child, and chances are he'll be at those births. How is that going to make your firstborn child feel?

As a former athlete, I get the mindset. Not to toot my own horn but during my athletic career teams I was on won multiple Junior Olympic medals and played in 2 National Championship games, winning one of them. While those are amazing memories that I will never forget, they are nothing compared to the first time I held my daughter. People keep asking me what that experience was like and I'm truly at a loss for words. I realize some Jr. Olympic Medals and a National Championship pale in comparison to a Super Bowl, but I can't imagine anything being on the same level as being in the room when your first child is born. When my daughter was about 4 minutes old, getting all her measurements taken and crying, she grabbed my finger. It's a moment that absolutely rocked my world and something I will never forget. Even writing about it brings a tear to my eye. I wouldn't trade that for anything.

If Richard Sherman was playing in the last game of his career, or was the keystone player on his team, I could understand him wondering if he should play in the game. But all signs point to him having long career, and while he's very good, I highly doubt he'll be the difference maker tomorrow. Not that he couldn't be, I just don't see the defense struggling if he's not there.

Go ask Hunter Mahan about it. Back in 2013 he left a PGA event he was leading so he could be at the birth of his child. Had he stayed he likely would've won and pocketed a million dollars. The guy literally gave up a shot at a million dollars to be in the room when his daughter was born. That's how special this is.

So from a new dad to someone about to become a dad- Richard, if your son decides he wants to be born tomorrow, go to the hospital. You've won a Super Bowl, you know what that's like already. You have no idea how happy you'll be when your child is born. Plus, if you go and your team wins you'll be a hero. If you stay and they win you'll be the guy who missed his kid's birth because of a game. If you stay and they lose, you'll be vilified even more than you are now. If you go and they win, you'll be the inspirational hero. Do the right thing.

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Super Bowl 49 Prop Bet Odds

As usual, RJ Bell of Pregame.com put together a fantastic list of prop bets and odds for the Super Bowl. He consistently provides the best and most thorough information in the sports betting industry. Here's what he sent out earlier today:

Super Bowl Props

MVP
($100 wins …)

Tom Brady +180
Russell Wilson +350
Marshawn Lynch +500
Rob Gronkowski +900
LeGarrette Blount +1500
Richard Sherman +3000
Julian Edelman +3000
Darrelle Revis +3800
Earl Thomas +4000

Player Stats

Passing Yards
Tom Brady: o/u 262.5 yards
Russell Wilson: o/u 221.5 yards

Rushing Yards
Seahawks: o/u 143.5 yards
Patriots: o/u 95.5 yards
Marshawn Lynch: o/u 91.5 yards
LeGarrette Blount: o/u 62.5 yards
Russell Wilson: o/u 43.5 yards

Receiving Yards
Rob Gronkowski: o/u 79.5 yards
Julian Edelman: o/u 68.5 yards
Doug Baldwin: o/u 54.5 yards
Brando LaFell: o/u 53.5 yards
Jermaine Kearse: o/u 42.5 yards
Luke Willson: o/u 32.5 yards
Shane Vereen: o/u 27.5 yards
Danny Amendola: o/u 23.5 yards

Longshots

+140 if Tom Brady does NOT throw an INT

+160 if there IS a Special Teams or Defensive TD

+220 if any quarter is scoreless

+250 if Patriots score in EVERY quarter

+250 if Darrelle Revis intercepts a pass

6/1 if Tom Brady throws 4 or more TD passes

6/1 if there’s a safety

6/1 if there’s a blocked punt

7/1 if game goes into OT

7/1 if Patriots win by more than 17 points

8/1 if ZERO turnovers in game

9/1 if there’s a kickoff return TD

9/1 if Tom Brady throws for 400+ passing yards

10/1 if an offensive lineman scores a TD

15/1 if Marshawn Lynch gains 150+ rushing yards

15/1 if either team wins by 37+ points

18/1 if Rob Gronkowski gains 150+ receiving yards

20/1 if first score of the game is a safety

20/1 if LaGarrette Blount gains 150+ rushing yards

20/1: ZERO sacks in game

30/1 if Russell Wilson throws for 350+ passing yards

40/1 if Revis has two or more INTs

40/1 if any fake punt gains First Down or a TD

100/1 if no TDs in game

Fun Props

Will Bill Belichick smile during the game on camera? +140 if YES

Will Al Michaels refer to odds at any point during telecast? +150 if YES

Will Marshawn Lynch “grab his crotch” after scoring TD? +400 if YES

Will Katy Perry be showing cleavage during halftime show? +500 if YES

What Color will Belichick’s hoodie be?
Grey: -150
Blue: +175
Red: +700

What Color Gatorade will be dumped on winning coach?
Orange +150
Clear +300
Yellow +400
Red +700
Blue +750
Purple +900
Green +1200

How many times will “Deflated” Balls be said during the game?
Over/Under 3 times

How many times will Gisele Bundchen be shown during game?
Over/Under 1.5 times

Cross-Sport Props

Will Dwayne Wade score more points Sunday OR Marshawn Lynch gain more receiving yards?

Will Sidney Crosby score more points or Russell Wilson throw more TD passes?

LeBron James points favored by 3.5 over Tom Brady Completions

Ten 50/50 Props (odds say either side of these props has exactly a 50% chance)
Great fun for radio hosts to battle or to print out and have party guests make picks.
(Odds over 1000/1 against getting all ten correct!)

Heads or Tails – Coin Toss

Over/Under: 2 minutes and 1 second for Idina Menzel to sing National Anthem?

Yes/No: Will the first Coach’s Challenge be overturned?

Yes/No: Will the game be tied again after 0-0?

Yes/No: Will every quarter have over 3.5 points of scoring?

Over/Under: 47.5 total points for the game

Over/Under: 44.5 yards for the game’s longest Field Goal

Over/Under: 44.5 yards for the game’s longest TD

Over/Under: 1.5 yards for game’s shortest TD

Over/Under: 14 points for largest lead by any team in game

Game Information

Patriots favored by 1 point over Seattle

Deflated football controversy has had NO EFFECT on the betting market

Only 5 prior Super Bowls have been so close that the spread was LESS THAN a field goal.

Vegas favorite has won 33 of 48 Super Bowls (69%)

Underdog 6-1 ATS in last 7 Super Bowls

Winner of turnover battle in Super Bowl history has won 36 of 39 games!

Game Trends:

(Patriots) NFL teams scoring 40+ points in the playoffs are on a 4-23 Against The Spread losing run their next game

Patriots 4-11 ATS their last 15 playoff games

Last 20 times Seattle an underdog, lost against the spread only THREE TIMES

Seattle: 34-15-1 ATS last 50 games overall

Seattle in December or later: 19-5-1 ATS (last four seasons)

Seattle: 20-7-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record

ACTION

An estimated $10 BILLION is projected to be bet on Super Bowl XLIX worldwide!
Over HALF of adult Americans are expected to have some money at risk on the game.
Less than 1% of the total amount bet is expected to be wagered legally in Nevada.

90% of overall SB 49 action in Las Vegas will come from recreational (non-professional) bettors.
This is highest percentage of recreational bettors for any American sporting event.

Vegas Wins 92% of the Time!
Nevada has kept separate Super Bowl accounting for 24 years:
Vegas has won money (in net) 22 years, with bettors winning money only twice.

COIN TOSS

48 prior Super Bowls: exactly 24 heads; 24 tails!

NFC has won 15 of the last 17 coin tosses

Bettors favors Heads so much that some sportsbooks are actually making it cheaper to bet Tails in an effort to the even action.

--

[odds above are a consensus of multiple Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. Bovada and sportsbook.ag the main source for many of the unusual props listed]

Here's what I like-

A bet on Gronk or Earl Thomas for MVP is just too enticing to pass up. Easily worth throwing $20 on. I love the Over on the mentions of "deflated balls" being 3. I think they'll pass that in the first quarter easily. I definitely think Katy Perry will be showing some cleavage, I mean, has anyone seen her perform? I'd be shocked if she didn't have the girls on display at least a little bit.

So there ya go. More Super Bowl props than you could ever begin to consider. Good luck this weekend, everyone. And if you hit it big, don't forget me.


And as always, a big thanks to RJ Bell for putting this all together. He is by far the best in the business.

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Jim Harbaugh To Michigan

According to John U. Bacon, Jim Harbaugh will be named the head coach for the Michigan Wolverines football team. He says the announcement could come as early as Monday. Terms have not been released.

As soon as Brady Hoke was fired I said Harbaugh was going to end up at Michigan. It just made too much sense. His style just isn't made for the NFL. He's a very good coach, that's obvious. But his approach doesn't fly with grown men. Not only that, but he'll be an absolute GOD in the football world if he can bring Michigan back to national prominence.

As much as I hate the Wolverines, and I do, I hope he's successful there. College football is better when Michigan is part of the conversation rather than being a punchline.

Will update as more info becomes available.

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JJ Watt For MVP

Seriously, he deserves it. Watt is clearly the defensive player of the year this season, but he should be the overall MVP as well. Here's why.

Put JJ Watt on any team in the NFL and that team instantly gets better. He has no equal. The same cannot be said for anyone else in the league. Take Aaron Rodgers, who is likely to win the award, and put him on the Broncos or Patriots. Those teams might be better, but in all likelihood they're in the same position. Same goes for DeMarco Murray. He's had an incredible year. But there are quite a few running backs who would have performed just as well as he has had they been given the volume of work he's received.

Look, I know it's a quarterback league. I know the NFL desperately wants the award to go to Rodgers, Brady, or Manning. I know those guys get 10x the amount of coverage Watt gets. Granted, Watt has seen a lot more attention this year, and rightfully so. Imagine how bad the Texans defense would be without him. The impact he has every week is astonishing. Coming in to this week he had 17.5 sacks, 1 interception (that he returned 80 yards for a TD, 3 forced fumbles, and 5 fumble recoveries (1 of which he returned for a TD). Oh yeah, he has 3 receiving TDs this year as well.

Just stop. Give him the award. No one in the NFL has had that kind of impact this season.

JJ Watt should be the NFL MVP this year.


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Nelson Cruz Is Proof PEDs Will Always Be A Part Of MLB

On August 5th 2013, Nelson Cruz was suspended for 50 games by Major League Baseball for his connection to the Biogensis Scandal. To put it more bluntly, he was caught taking performance enhancing drugs.

Now we can go back and forth about the actual benefits of performance enhancing drugs and never end up anywhere close to an agreement. But that's not what matters here. What matters is PEDs are a violation of the rules. Not only that, but using PEDs is a violation that on the surface seems to carry a fairly stiff penalty. Herein lies the issue. The penalty is stiff but doesn't do much to dissuade players from using. Nelson Cruz is a perfect example of this.

After being reinstated it wasn't exactly easy for Cruz to find work. He did eventually sign an $8 million deal with the Orioles for 2014 and helped them win the AL East. This contract was lower than what he could have made had he accepted the Rangers' $14 million qualifying offer. Sounds like the punishment worked right? Received a suspension and had to take a pay cut. Definitely an incentive to not use PEDs.

However, reports have come out today that Cruz is in agreement with the Mariners on a 4-year deal worth $57 million. The vast majority of baseball writers, reporters, tweeters, "experts," and so on are saying they're clearly over-paying for him. It's entirely possible that's the case, but it's also the climate of baseball right now.

My issue is the fact that he clearly benefited from taking PEDs. His punishment really didn't matter. Think of it this way. If you were caught taking illegal drugs at your work, you'd likely be fired. Not only that, but you'd have a tough time getting a job in that field again. I realize baseball is different, but something has to be done. If you're an average player who is on the verge of breaking out, what's stopping you from taking PEDs? A 50-game suspension clearly isn't doing the trick. If MLB wants to actually rid itself of PEDs, the penalties need to be stiffened.

I'd like to see the punishment for PED use to be go from 3 strikes to 2. First time caught gets a 100-game suspension and the second offense would be a lifetime ban. Now you're effecting a massive part of one season, or a good portion of two. That would make guys think twice about breaking the rules. Only being able to play in 62 games rather than 112 is going to seriously impact a performance and therefore future contracts. Or not being eligible for the end of one season and the beginning of another.

Yes, it's a great PR move to suspend these guys for 50 games. But it ultimately has no effect on them. If MLB truly wants to address the issue of PEDs, the penalties needed to be increased to the point where they will impact the player's future contracts.

Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports

NFL Week 5 Betting Trends

It's been a strange NFL season so far. There are only two undefeated teams through 4 weeks, the Cardinals and Bengals. The Patriots looks downright awful, the Cowboys look competent, the Packers went from looking terrible to looking pretty good in the matter of about a week, and the Saints are a huge question mark. All of this combines to make it rather difficult to have a great deal of confidence when it comes to putting money down on some games. But fear not, RJ Bell of Pregame.com has sent out his week 5 betting trends, and there are some good ones in there. 

• Bengals: the away team has covered only 4 of last 22 Cincinnati games
• Bills: the home team in Buffalo games 17-4 ATS
• Broncos: Peyton Manning off a bye has won 8 straight ATS
• Chiefs on road: lost only 1 of last 11 ATS
• Cowboys off a win, then favored the next game: 2-13 ATS
• Cowboys as home favorite: covered only 6 of last 25
• Eagles at home: covered only 7 of last 30
• Falcons off a loss by 6 or more points: 20-4 ATS
• Lions off a win: covered the next game only 5 of 19
• Patriots: home underdog for only second time since 2005
• Patriots: off a loss as a favorite, then an underdog the next week: 17-2 ATS
• Patriots: off a loss as a favorite, then playing a winning team the next week: 14-1 ATS
• Saints (with Payton coaching): have not lost a game at home against the spread since the 2010 
• season! (18-0-1 ATS)
• Saints (with Payton coaching) when favored by more than a touchdown: 14-2 ATS
• Saints off a road loss: 21-4 ATS the next game
• Steelers as a road favorite of 6 or more points: lost 10 straight ATS
• Titans have not covered a game at home in over one calendar year (0-7 ATS since 9/29/13)

There's a lot of good information in there, but some of it has to be taken with a grain of salt. The Patriots for example, would you put any money on them this week? Sure, teams bounce back after bad losses all the time. But those teams typically have an impressive offense who just ran into a better defense. Impressive is not a word you'll hear anyone use when describing the Pats offense. I do like the Saints this weekend. They're -10 at home against the Bucs and they need a big win after last week's dismantling in Dallas. I also really like the Steelers this weekend despite the trend. They're -6.5 on the road, but they're in Jacksonville. I'm fairly certain you could take the top 50 college players and they'd be able to give the Jaguars a decent game right now, the Jags are that bad. 

Once again, thanks to RJ Bell of Pregame.com for taking the time to put this information together. 

Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports

Free NFL Survivor League- $200 To The Winner

For the past few years I've either run or been a member of an NFL Survivor league. It's a fun way to stay involved outside of just fantasy football and it's really easy. You pick one winner each week and if you win you move on. If you lose twice, you're out. But the catch is you can't pick a team more than once. So for instance if you pick the Patriots to beat the Dolphins in Week 1 you cannot pick the Patriots again at any time. Interested?

Here's the deal, I'm not actually running a Survivor league this year but I'm part of one that is open to the public. Best of all, this league is free to join. The winner will receive $200 and if you have a perfect season that will be doubled to $400. Survivor leagues are fun, profitable, but can be insanely stressful. Trying to gauge when you should pick teams like the Broncos or Packers isn't as easy as it sounds.

Like I said, this year's NFL Survivor league is open to the public. All you have to do is sign up on ViceHood then go to this forum and enter your pick. All the official rules can be found there as well. No double entries are allowed and your pick must be in before the Thursday game kicks off each week, except for week 1.

Please feel free to invite anyone who you think would be interested in this and if you have any questions just hit me up on Twitter.

2014 Fantasy Fooball TE Rankings

Most leagues will be drafting in the next few days. If you haven't already started doing your homework you're behind. Unless you're in a league with a bunch of rookies, you need to do some research. Learn your league rules, do some position ranking, and actually think about what you're going to do if you draft first or last. Continuing my series on ranking players by position, here are my 2014 fantasy football TE rankings. And no, you cannot be successful in fantasy football and overlook the TE position. 

1. Jimmy Graham- This should be obvious. No one compares to Jimmy Graham. Put it this way, in my league last year Graham went for 260.5 points. The second-highest scoring TE was Vernon Davis with 189 points. In fact, there were only six position players in my league who scored more than Graham last season- Jamal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Josh Gordon, Calvin Johnson, and Demaryius Thomas. All of those players, save for Gordon, should be drafted before Graham. However no one is going to blame you if you draft Graham low in the first round. If he's somehow available in the second round, take him.

2. Rob Gronkowski- This actually worries me a little bit. We still don't know if Gronk is going to be medically cleared for Week 1, though my feeling is he will. More than that, we don't know what all that missed time is going to do to Gronk's game. When he's at his best he's pretty much unstoppable and his fantasy value is ridiculous. Gronk is definitely one of the best TE in the game when he's on the field. His injury history does worry me, but the good outweighs the bad. I wouldn't take him before the third round, but don't be surprised if someone does. 

3. Julius Thomas- Oh Peyton, my Peyton. Without Peyton and that ridiculous offense in Denver I doubt Julius Thomas would be on this list. But he is, and for good reason. He missed 2 games last season and still found the endzone 12 times. He's a top-option for Peyton in the redzone, and in a pass-happy offense he's going to see a ton of targets. I like Thomas in the mid-to-late third round. 

4. Greg Olsen- I honestly feel bad for Cam Newton. The Panthers just won't give the guy a solid receiving corp to work with. However this likely will benefit Greg Olsen this season. The receivers in Carolina are new to the team, Olsen is not. Granted he doesn't light up the scoreboard like the guys I've listed above him, but I won't be surprised at all if he improves on his 2013 numbers of 816 yards and 6 TDs. That being said, I wouldn't draft him before the 7th round. You need to fill in your big spots before taking a non-star TE. 

5. Vernon Davis- Why did the TE who scored the second-most points in fantasy last year slip this far? Michael Crabtree. Crabtree missed 11 games last season which freed up a ton of opportunities for Davis. With Crabtree healthy, it's almost guaranteed Davis is going to see fewer balls thrown his way. That being said, don't be surprised if he comes close to double digits in TDs again. He and Olsen are pretty interchangeable in terms of where they're drafted, in fact I'd expect Davis to be drafted before Olsen just because of his production last year. But I wouldn't draft him before the 7th round. 

6. Jason Witten- Oh great, here comes this idiot with another homer Cowboys player. Look, I watched every Cowboys game last year and saw how his production dropped. Nothing frustrated me more than seeing Witten get overlooked, other than the Cowboys complete ineptitude on defense and reluctance to run the ball. I see Witten having a big bounceback year. Their new offensive coordinator should be looking to stretch the field, which is going to open up Witten over the middle. I'd be happy if Witten fell to me in mid-to-late 7th round and gladly scoop him up. 

7. Jordan Cameron- He had a fantastic 2013 season, but I don't expect him to come close replicating those numbers. A new head coach and an ongoing quarterback controversy/competition in Cleveland is going to make things tough for Cameron. However, he's still a good mid-draft option. I'd take him around the 10th round and feel very good about it. 

8. Dennis Pitta- I've got him lower than a lot of the experts do, but that doesn't mean I don't have as much confidence in his abilities. As ESPN puts it, "New offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak is famous for featuring athletic tight ends out of the slot, and Pitta's connection with Joe Flacco is strong." However Flacco also now has Steve Smith opposite Torrey Smith and the Ravens added Owen Daniels. Pitta could end up being a top-five TE this season, I just don't think it's worth the risk of taking him super high. He got hurt last year, playing only the last four games of the season and scoring only once. He's another TE I'd be very comfortable taking in the middle or late rounds of the draft as my starter. 

9. Kyle Rudolph- This one is definitely a gamble. However, it's an educated gamble. Rudolph was nothing short of awful last season, except for week 6 against Carolina when he caught 9 passes for 97 yards and a TD. Over the nine games he played, Rudolph scored a total of 52.7 points. That's not good enough to warrant being a starter. However Norv Turner is now in Minnesota, and if any offensive coordinator loves TE it's Turner. Look what he did for Antonio Gates and last year with Jordan Cameron. Rudolph has the athletic skills to be a great TE, he just needs to use them. 

10. Jordan Reed, Martellus Bennett, and Delanie Walker- All of these guys are capable of being near the top 10 of the league in terms of fantasy points. However, they're not really in a system that benefits their scoring opportunities. All three of these guys had weeks where they went off last season and all three had weeks where they scored 1.5 fantasy points or fewer. They're definitely feast or famine. If you end up with a TE like this you're going to need to make up the points elsewhere. 

Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports

2014 Fantasy Football WR Rankings

Part III in this series will cover my top 10 wide receivers for the 2014 fantasy football season. There are a lot of things to consider when drafting your wideouts. First, where are they on the depth chart? You need to have at least one top weapon. You will not make the playoffs with a team of second options. Sure, you'll get some wins and some big games, but the consistency won't be there. Another thing to keep in mind is your league rules. If you're in a PPR league it should change where you're taking your WRs and who your backups are going to be.

1. Calvin Johnson- Who else. Megatron had a down year last year and was still the 2nd highest-scoring, or third depending on your league, wide receiver. He's damn-near impossible to defend and his combination of size and speed makes him an absolute monster. Contributing to his "down year," which still saw him go for nearly 1,500 yards and 12 TDs, were injuries to his knee and finger. Both of those were addressed with offseason surgery. He is the best wide receiver in the NFL and should probably be taken in the first round of the draft. I wouldn't take him before the fifth pick, but anytime after that is perfectly fine.

2. Demaryius Thomas- Have you met Peyton Manning? Thomas put up the same amount of points in fantasy as Calvin Johnson last year, at least in my league, and there is no reason to think he won't have another monster year. He's a beast when it comes to yardage after the catch, 1,225 yards last year which was best in the league, and he caught 14 TDs. What makes him so dangerous is Peyton looks for him in short-yardage situations too. He scored 9 of his 14 TDs on short throws. Is he a first-rounder? He certainly could be, but I'd expect him to go early in the second.

3. AJ Green- While he doesn't have a great QB throwing to him, he gets a ton of opportunities. In fact, Green saw more targets, 178, than any other wide receiver last year. He's quick, tall, and has great hands. This makes him a great vertical threat and a prime redzone target. As I mentioned, he does have Andy Dalton pitching to him which doesn't exactly inspire confidence. But Green makes up for Dalton's shortcomings and he's a very safe pick. I wouldn't take him in the first round, but I'd be thrilled if I could get my hands on him later on.

4. Brandon Marshall- Marshall has more targets since becoming a Bear than anyone in the NFL. He found the endzone 12 times last year and nearly hit the 1,300-yard mark. Yes, you will see Alshon Jeffery get looks that will take away chances for Marshall. But considering he still saw more than 140 balls thrown his way last year I wouldn't really worry about it. Plus, if you can handcuff Marshall and Jeffery you've got a great combo. I'd look for Marshall in the late second round. If he's still available in the third I'd definitely jump at the chance to take him.

5. Dez Bryant- I know, another Cowboy on the list. Hear me out though. When he's not yelling at his teammates on the sideline, Dez puts in work. He had 13 scores last year and over 1,200 yards. The biggest drop for Dez last year was the number of deep balls he saw. However I expect that to change this season. Scott Linehan is the new offensive coordinator in Dallas and I think they're going to stretch the field with Dez a lot more in 2014. Granted he's still got Romo under center, which can be stressful, but Romo does have the arm to get the ball downfield. Plus, Romo loves throwing to Dez in the endzone. Late in the second is where Dez should be drafted, but I expect him to go higher in most leagues. Not a first-rounder or an early second-rounder, but definitely a safe pick early in the draft.

6. Julio Jones- Jones missed 11 games last year with a broken foot. When he got hurt he was on pace to top 1,800 yards and score 6 times. You and I both know he would have found the endzone more than half a dozen times if he played those 11 games. The re-tooled offensive line in Atlanta should give Matt Ryan some more time to find his top option. Roddy White is still going to get some attention, but Jones is clearly the number one receiver. Plus Tony Gonzalez retired, so Ryan's redzone safety net will likely be Jones as well. I'm very comfortable taking him in the latter half of the second round.

7. Jordy Nelson- No one missed Aaron Rodgers more. "Nelson ranked fourth among WRs in fantasy points on vertical throws (118) and tied for 31st on short ones (47)," according to ESPN. When Rodgers got hurt, Nelson's value plummeted. He's a deep threat who is going to find the endzone. Despite Rodgers abscence, Nelson was still able to put up 8 TDs on just over 1,300 yards. I fully expect him to hit double digits in scores and get at least that many yards this season. You can feel confident taking Nelson very late in the second round if you have a star running back, otherwise look for him in the third to compliment your first two picks.

8. Victor Cruz- If you owned Cruz last year you probably think I'm nuts. But just look what he went through in 2013. He got hurt, the Giants had no one to take attention away from him, and Eli was an interception machine. Much like the Cowboys the Giants have a revamped offense. They clearly still have their issues, but they should be much better than last season. Look at what Cruz did in the first 4 games of the season last year and use that as your indicator of how good he really is. Over those four games he averaged a touchdown and 106 yards. That includes a stinker in Carolina where he only 3 balls for 25 yards. Cruz is a solid third round pick.

9. Antonio Brown- Remember what I said about drafting guys who were the number one option? That's Brown. Emmanuel Sanders is now in Denver clearing the way for Brown to have a big year. He caught 110 passes last season for nearly 1,500 yards and scored 8 times. While I'm not sure his yardage numbers will increase, I'd be shocked if he doesn't find the endzone at least 10 times. Roethlisberger looked to Brown on both short and deep balls, expect that to happen again.

10. Alshon Jeffery, Pierre Garcon, Randall Cobb- With the exception of Garcon these guys are all strong number two wideouts. They're all very viable receivers, they just have guys in front of them. That makes them fantastic handcuffs and great value picks. Garcon is different because he is a number one. But that was before the Redskins had DeSean Jackson and who knows what RG3 is going to do.

Looking at what Josh Gordon did last year you probably want to know why he isn't on this list. Simply put, he's likely not going to play this year. He was already facing a season-long suspension for testing positive for marijuana, then he got a DWI. Gordon is a great receiver, albeit on a crappy team. If he's able to play, he's probably a mid to late second-rounder. However drafting him before knowing his status is beyond risky. It's not worth it to me to use anything other than a very late pick on him.

Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports

2014 Fantasy Football RB Rankings

The 2nd part of my fantasy rankings is going to rank my top 10 running backs for the 2014 NFL season. Some people didn't agree with my QB rankings, which is totally fine. I don't expect everyone to go along with what I say. It's important to remember with running backs that you need two guys who are going to get a lot of carries. You need to consider the offense, the other weapons on the team, and who gets the goal-line carries.

1. Adrian Peterson- C'mon, who else would it be? The Vikings aren't a great team, they don't have many offensive weapons, and Adrian Peterson is an absolute beast. He's scored at least 10 touchdowns in each of his 7 seasons and finished with less than 1,400 yards only once. He's an absolute workhorse. Injuries are worrisome, but that goes with every single player on your roster. If you have the first overall pick in your draft you can take AP with confidence.

2. LeSean McCoy- I may be a Cowboys fan and hate the Eagles with a passion, but I'm not an idiot. The only running back with more fantasy points than McCoy over the past three years is AP. He won the rushing title last year by more than 260 yards and that was in his first year in Chip Kelly's new system. There is no reason to expect him to fall off this year. While you may take some crap if you draft McCoy first overall, it's certainly not a terrible idea. The Eagles do have more options than the Vikings, so you probably won't see McCoy getting as many opportunities as Peterson, but they're both going to be fantasy monsters.

3. Jamal Charles- His 19 touchdowns last year was tops for running backs last year and he did it on just 259 carries. For comparison McCoy had 314 carries and Peterson had 279 (in 15 games). However Charles did see more work in the passing game, he had 70 receptions. Charles will once again be a big part of the KC offense, and with Alex Smith at QB I don't expect a ton of deep balls. The West Coast offense is a bit concerning, but Charles is good enough to make taking him high in the draft totally reasonable. I wouldn't take him first overall, but at second or third you're getting a ton of value.

4. Marshawn Lynch- Beast mode. Lynch leads all running backs over the last three years with 35 touchdowns and carries since 2011. He's the definition of a workhorse on a team absolutely committed to the run. While the trend for running backs like Lynch is to break down, at 28 it's not likely to happen to him this year (hopefully I didn't just jinx him). You should have no concerns drafting him if he's available to you in the first round.

5. Matt Forte- I'm cautiously optimistic with Forte. He had the best year of his career last year, but he also played more snaps than any other RB in the league. However, "each of the past three rushers who've led the position in snaps has failed to register a top-nine fantasy campaign the following season," according to ESPN. That is concerning, but it's also something that Forte is certainly capable of putting to rest. He's incredibly fast, powerful, and has great hands. If you're going to take Forte with such a high pick you need to make sure you've got at least two other stars at other positions.

6. Montee Ball- With Knowshon Moreno now in Miami, there is no one standing in Ball's way other than himself. His blocking was what kept him off the field last year, which allowed Moreno to become the featured back. Ball will now reap the benefits of playing beside Peyton. He's likely to get a ton of looks in the passing game, at the goal line, and become a key piece in the Denver offense. He's a risky pick in the first round, but not so much in the second round if you've taken another star RB or QB. However, if you think you can grab him late in the first and still find exceptional talent in the second, don't hesitate.

7. Eddie Lacy- I'm honestly worried about ranking him this high. I know he was the offensive ROY in 2013, and I know the experts have him as high as 4th. But I also know how players fall off in their sophomore season. Lacy was great last year, there's no denying that. But does one season make him a legit fantasy star? I wouldn't take him in the first round, but I'd be fine taking him in the second. Another worry is how well he played without Aaron Rodgers. He had to carry the Packers last year when Rodgers was hurt, but will he be as needed this year if Rodgers is healthy?

8. Demarco Murray- I know, I know. He's a Dallas Cowboy. But he also averaged 5.2 yards per carry last year, 3rd best in the NFL, and got more than 21 touches per game down the stretch in 2013. The biggest concern is injuries though. Murray has had plenty of them, but when he's healthy he's exactly what you want in a running back. Not a guy I'd take in the first round, but definitely a second rounder.

9. Arian Foster- Another guy who has injury issues. Foster missed nine games last year, and isn't on a great offensive team. That may actually help him though. Outside of Andre Johnson there isn't another big name in the Houston offense other than Foster. When healthy he's one of the best in the league. Also, with the upgrades to the Houston defense, they may not be playing from behind (at least not as far as behind) as often this season so he could see a good amount of work. Also, with Ben Tate no longer in the picture, the talent drop-off between Foster and his backup is much larger.

10. Zac Stacy, Giovanni Bernard, Alfred Morris- All three of these guys are going to be solid running backs. None of them however are going to be fantasy superstars. They're all guys you can plug in week after week with confidence, but don't expect them to light up the scoreboard. They're all very safe second round picks, but aren't on great teams and/or aren't the featured offensive weapon on their team. Other names to put here are Reggie Bush, Le'Veon Bell, and Doug Martin.

As I said before, you need two starting running backs in your lineup every week. You're not going to have AP and McCoy, unless you're in a league that is nothing but embarrassing, so you need to plan on having a star and a starter you'll find later in your draft. Running backs are the lifeblood of a successful fantasy team, don't wait until the later rounds to take your starters, that's a death sentence. The drop-off between good fantasy RBs and decent ones is massive. Take a running back in the first or second round, then find your second starter a few rounds later.

Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports

2014 Fantasy Football QB Rankings

By now we all know the NFL is quarterback league. Yes, the Seahawks won the Super Bowl last year in dominant form thanks to their defense and running game. However, they are the exception not the rule. The majority of the teams that made the playoffs have high-profile quarterbacks. When it comes to fantasy football, your quarterback can literally make or break your season. Yes, your running backs are insanely important but we'll get to those later. Here are my 2014 fantasy football qb rankings.

1. Peyton Manning- This guy made my season last year. Did I expect 55 TDs? Absolutely not. Nor do I expect him to come close to those numbers this year. Yes, he lost Decker but he's still got Welker, Thomas, and now he's got Emmanuel Sanders. Add into that equation TE Julius Thomas and a backfield featuring Montee Ball and Peyton has more than enough weapons. He's going to be the first quarterback drafted in your league, and he should be. If he's available in the first round it's going to be hard not to grab him. Granted, if you have one of the first four picks you're going to have to do some serious consideration. If your league is standard scoring, 4 points for passing TDs but 6 for rushing or receiving, I'd probably go with a running back. But if you're in a league where all TDs are worth 6, it's really not possible to take Peyton too early.

2. Drew Brees- This guy is a certified fantasy football stud. Had Peyton not had the absolutely ridiculous season he did, the season Brees had would stand out so much more. 39 TDs, over 5,000 yards passing, and he completed 68.6 percent of his passes, just a touch more than Peyton's 68.3 percent. Brees is in a pass-first offense and there is no reason to think he's not going to have yet another big season. In a 10-team league I'd consider him with 8th, 9th, or 10th pick, provided of course you think you'll still be able to snag a star running back in the second round.

3. Aaron Rodgers- Don't look at his totals for last year. His injury absolutely destroyed his fantasy stats, but don't let that dissuade you. Rodgers is very much a top-tier quarterback, and given what he can do with his legs he should garner serious consideration in your draft plans. Rodgers has more rushing TDs than any other quarterback since 2008 outside of Cam Newton. He's got a big arm, a great receiving corp, and with attention expected to be shown toward Eddie Lacy, Rodgers could see even more time in the pocket. As with Brees I'd be comfortable drafting him late in the first round if I was sure I could still get enough talent in the second.

4. Tom Brady- Here's where Matthew Berry and I start to differ. He has Stafford ranked as his 4th best qb, which is understandable given the season he had last year. I just don't think the Detroit offense is going to be throwing as much as they did in 2013. The Patriots on the other hand will probably be throwing even more. Their rookie receivers are no longer rookies and they should be getting Gronk back. We saw what Brady is capable of with less-than-stellar receivers last year down the stretch; he was 4th best in the NFL in terms of fantasy points per game for quarterbacks from week 9 through week 17. I'll admit taking him late in the first round is risky, but you've got to bet big to win big.

5. Matthew Stafford- Ok, more on Stafford. Megatron had a pretty lousy season by his standards, have to think that won't happen again. Golden Tate gives them a vertical threat, and Stafford has thrown an absurd amount of passes over the past three seasons. In fact, Stafford has thrown more passes, 2,024, over the past three years than any other quarterback has in NFL history for a three-year period. Like I said above, I don't think he'll be throwing quite as much as he has been, but there should definitely be an upgrade in the quality of his receivers. Stafford will probably be taken earlier than he should be, but he's a safe pick once you're into the third round. I wouldn't take him earlier than that simply because you need strong running backs in order to compete. Then again, it all depends on your league rules. If it's qb-heavy, he's a safe pick in the mid-to-late second.

6. Colin Kaepernick- I don't understand why so many people have him ranked so low. He had an awful start to the 2013 season, but remember he hadn't even played a full season as the starter yet. I'm chalking that up to a "sophomore" slump. Kaepernick is definitely a dual-threat qb as well. He ranked 4th among quarterbacks last year in rushing with 524 yards (with 4 TDs) and still threw 21 touchdown passes. I actually think Harbaugh is going to loosen the reins on him this year and we're going to see Kaepernick run even more. If he's available after the third round, which he should be but probably won't, he's definitely worth grabbing.

7. Cam Newton- If the Panthers could actually get some top-level talent around Newton he'd make a serious run at the MVP. We've already seen what he can do mediocre support and he's going to have to do it again this season. Like Kaepernick, Newton is another dual threat guy. Newton scored more fantasy points with his legs than any other qb in the league last year and that was with a balky ankle. Offseason surgery should have that all fixed up, so I expect him to eclipse the century mark in rushing points (he had 88 last season). Newton is another guy who will more than likely be taken earlier than he should be, but he's no scrub. He got a taste of the postseason last year and he's going to be eager to get back there. Losing Steve Smith is going to hurt, but not as much as you may think. Smith only had 4 TDs last year and didn't top 750 yards. Newton should be just fine.

8. Andrew Luck- I've probably got him too low on this list to be perfectly honest. He scored the fourth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks last year which is impressive by itself. Then remember he was without Reggie Wayne for nine games. The Colts get Wayne back and added Hakeem Nicks. Plus they've got T.Y. Hilton who announced his presence with authority last year. Luck has a great receiving corp, isn't a afraid to throw the deep ball, cut his interceptions in half compared to his rookie year, and scored 4 times with his legs. Luck is poised to have a great year, my only concern is the running game in Indy. Richardson bombed once he got there which will only lead to increased pressure. If the running game falters again, Luck is going to be asked to do pretty much everything, and opposing defenses are going to know it. Still, he's going to be a top-ten fantasy qb this year, maybe even a top-five.

9. Matt Ryan- Last year was terrible for Matt Ryan. The offensive line for the Falcons was basically non-existent and he lost Julio Jones for much of the season. Despite all this Ryan was still able to rank 14th among quarterbacks in fantasy points. Assuming Jones can stay healthy this year, and the improvements Atlanta made to their o-line are as good as advertised, we should see Ryan have a big bounce back year. He's durable, he's got a big arm, and he's smart. The Falcons allowed 44 sacks last year, tied for most in the NFL, yet Ryan still threw 26 TDs and amassed over 4,500 passing yards with 17 interceptions. I won't be surprised at all if those numbers increase and while his picks drop.

10. Tony Romo, Nick Foles, Jay Cutler- Really, these are all the same guy. These are all guys who are viable starting quarterbacks in fantasy, but aren't really going to light up the scoreboard. Yes, I realize Foles had a great year last year. I don't see that happening again. All three of these quarterbacks have their pros and cons. In fact, you can probably add Phillip Rivers and Russell Wilson to this list here as well. There are definitely better options available, but you could do so much worse as well. Don't get stuck with Eli Manning or Carson Palmer.

Not having a solid quarterback on your fantasy roster is one of the dumbest moves you can make. There's a reason so many playoff teams have an above average qb, both in the actual NFL and in fantasy football. Keep in mind you're going to need a backup for at least your bye week, but you need a top-level starter. Someone you can plug in week after week and not be worried about the matchup.

Up next in the series, the top 10 fantasy football running backs for 2014

Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports

Daniel Cormier Gets A Title Shot

The much-anticipated Jon Jones/Alexander Gustafsson will have to wait. The UFC announced late Wednesday "The Mauler" has suffered an injury in training this week. Jones was scheduled to take on Gustafsson for the 2nd time at UFC 178 in September. Their first fight pushed Jones further than any other in his career thus far, with many thinking the champion should have lost the fight. He won via unanimous decision.

Stepping into Gustafsson's spot is Daniel Cormier. Cormier is unbeaten and a two-time Olympian who has been yearning for a shot at Jones for some time now. Back in May after beating Dan Henderson, Cormier told Joe Rogan "“Jon Jones, you can’t run away from me forever.I’m the kid at the wrestling tournament that is always in your bracket. No matter where you go, I’m coming. You better hurry because I’m getting better.”

The announcement is actually probably pleasing to the reigning champion. Jones expressed his interest in fighting Cormier before the rematch with Gustafsson was announced. When people called him out for making the remarks he responded by saying, "asking for an undefeated Olympic wrestler, Strikeforce champion makes me somehow a coward?”

Now, I'll be the first to admit I'm a huge Jones fan. Have been since he came onto the scene. I'm also a big Cormier fan though. That being said, I'll be pulling for Jones in this fight. More than that, I'm hoping for a good fight. However, I don't think they match up very well. Cormier has cinderblocks for hands but I'm not sure he's going to be able to get close enough to use them. Jones is going to utilize that ridiculous reach and keep him outside. Cormier's best shot is to take the fight to the ground and we already know how good Jones is at stopping takedowns. Then again, I don't think he's faced anyone who has the wrestling skills Cormier does. 

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