The time is upon us. After a 5-month layoff, baseball is back. It's been a fairly crazy offseason, which hopefully means we're in for an entertaining year. Instant replay will be used to a whole new extent, and collisions and home are now outlawed. Sort of. But before the lines are chalked and the umpires yell "play ball" I figured I might as well put my predictions in writing.
Division Winners
NL West- Have to go with the Dodgers here. I'm a whole lot less confident in this pick with the news that broke yesterday about Kershaw going on the DL, but I'm hoping it's nothing too serious. If he can come back and even be 80% of what he was last year, the Dodgers are set up to make another deep run in the playoffs. Their biggest concern is of course injuries. But if they can get and stay healthy, they match up with anyone across the league. And they should considering how much money they've spent recently
AL West- Quite possibly my favorite division in baseball. The teams spend money like it's going out of style, other than Oakland of course, but never get the desired results. Is this the year the Angels finally get what they're paying for? Can the A's continue out-playing their division rivals despite having the 6th lowest payroll in all of baseball? Will the Rangers get back to the playoffs? Honestly, I have no idea. I'm going to go with the A's again. They're scrappy, they good starting pitching, and they don't seem to pay attention to anyone's opinion of them. I love that.
NL Central- Cardinals. It's always the Cardinals. The Pirates were a nice surprise last year and I sincerely hope they build on the 2013 season, but I can't go against St. Louis. They're just too good.
AL Central- Much like the NL Central, the AL Central is dominated by one team. The Tigers have one of the best top-to-bottom lineups in baseball in a pretty mediocre division. The Royals could make some noise, and the Indians were certainly a pleasant surprise last year. But until someone dethrones the Tigers I see no reason to go against them.
NL East- The division should be decided between the Nationals and Braves. The Nationals have the same issue the Dodgers do, injuries. If they can stay healthy and perform at the level we all know they're capable of, they should take the division with relative ease. The Braves lost Hudson and McCann, two guys who were big parts of their success.
AL East- Easily the most stressful division. Can the Red Sox repeat? Will the Rays make yet another run? Sorry Yankees fans, but I don't believe in your ancient lineup. As for the Orioles, you never know what you'll get from them. I'm gonna be a homer and pick the Red Sox simply based on their pitching, but it won't surprise me one bit if the Rays end up taking the division.
Wildcards- In the National League the Braves and Pirates should both make the postseason again in 2014. It won't surprise me if either end up winning their division, but I don't have enough confidence to just pick them outright. As for the American League I'm going with the Rays (or Red Sox if the Rays end up winning the division) and the Angels. The Rays are yet again a very good team, and I think the Angels are finally going to get some results out of their ridiculous payroll.
World Series- Is this the year the Dodgers finally bring a title back to Los Angeles for the first time since 1988? They're certainly built to. They have an abundance of outfielders and a fantastic pitching staff. They should win the World Series. In fact, I'm predicting a rematch of the '88 Series. LA over Oakland, only this time in 6 games. I love the Red Sox, but being able to capture the magic they had last season again is nearly impossible. The Tigers were pushed to the brink by the A's last season in the ALDS and I think the experience the A's gained last year will only serve to push them over the top this year. But LA has the best shot at winning the World Series this year.
Individual Awards
NL Rookie of the Year- Billy Hamilton, Billy Hamilton, Billy Hamilton, Billy freakin' Hamilton. I think this guy is really going to be a game-changer. If he gets on base he's going to steal. There are no two ways about it. Between putting himself in scoring position and disrupting the pitcher's process, he can have a huge impact on the outcome of a game. I really think he's going to excel.
AL Rookie of the Year- Xander Bogaerts. We all saw what he did in the postseason last year. His slash line was .296/.412./.481 in the playoffs. His average in the ALCS was .500, against the Tigers. The guy can hit and he's sure-handed in the field.
NL Cy Young- Of course I had Kershaw penciled in here. He is the best pitcher in baseball. But this injury has me worried. He's never been on the DL before. So not only does he have to get healthy, but how will he respond when he does come back? I'm still picking him as the favorite to win the award.
AL Cy Young- Yu Darvish and Justin Verlander are the most popular picks by the "experts" but I'm going in a different direction. I'm going with Jon Lester. I think this will be the year he pitches as well in the regular season as he does in the postseason. Will I be surprised if Darvish or Verlander end up winning it? Of course not, but it's no fun picking the same person as everyone else.
NL MVP- I can't help but wonder why I see so many people picking Bryce Harper here. The kid is a fine ballplayer, but so far he hasn't been anything special at the plate. His lifetime, mind you that's only two seasons, average is .272 and he strikes out far too often in my mind. He did cut his strikeout total by nearly 30 last year compared to his rookie season, but his home run, RBI, stolen base, doubles, and triples all dropped as well and his total walks only went up by 5. He has a long way to go. Anyway, I'm going with Hanley Ramirez. He's in a contract year and if he can stay healthy and do what he did last season (.345/.402/.638) he could run away with the award.
AL MVP- Mike Trout. Definitely should've won it in 2012 and probably should've won it last year too. He's the best all-around player in the game. If the Angels make the playoffs he should be the clear winner. Finally.
There ya go. I have less confidence in these picks than any other predictions I've written about. This season should be ridiculous. Between Cano in Seattle, Jeter's farewell season, Puig's first full year, and everything else we can't predict, it's going to be a fun year.
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Showing posts with label Cardinals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cardinals. Show all posts
Sunday, March 30, 2014
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Red October: World Series Preview
I won't even try to suggest I'm not rooting for the Red Sox here. Obviously I am. That being said, I did some research and made my prediction based off that. Yes, I want the Red Sox to win. But that doesn't mean I'm too biased to ignore what the numbers say.
Wainwright and Wacha are clearly the two pitchers that the Cardinals are banking on, and with good reason. Wacha has been arguably the most impressive pitcher in the postseason and Wainwright is already a household name. They give St. Louis an immediate advantage in any series. However, St. Louis doesn't have the home field advantage, which could negate their aces. Wainwright's ERA on the road is nearly a run higher than at home, 3.36 compared to 2.53. I realize that's not much, but considering how evenly matched the two teams are, any edge is going to be huge for either team. Wacha's road ERA is over 2 runs higher than his home ERA, 4.34 compared to 2.15. Granted Wacha didn't pitch on the road in the NLCS, so it's doubtful he starts Game 2. I would assume that means the Red Sox will pitch Lackey in Game 2, who was excellent on the road in Game 3 of the ALCS and throughout the season was much better pitching at Fenway. I'm going to assume this means Buchholz throws Game 3 against Wacha, and I'll give him the edge even though he hasn't been nearly as sharp during the postseason as he was throughout the regular season.
I also have to give the edge to Boston when it comes to the bullpen. Their ERA is a full run lower than the St. Louis bullpen and they've thrown 2 more innings. Koji Uehara, the ALCS MVP, has been the most impressive reliever in MLB this year. He throws nearly nothing but strikes and has the stuff to get anyone out. Yes he did give up a walkoff home run to the Rays, but he hasn't looked back since. If the game is on the line, there is no one else in baseball I'd trust more than Koji.
The team batting stats also favor the Red Sox. They've hit .236/.325/.365 while the Cardinals have hit .210/.285/.325 throughout October. Both teams faced some of the best starting pitching in baseball in their Championship Series and the only offensive explosion was the Cardinals in Game 6. Even then they still trail the Red Sox in hitting.
The players I'm most interested in watching throughout the series are Carlos Beltran and Xander Bogaerts. One a 16-year veteran outfielder who is finally getting a taste of the World Series. The other a rookie who has a seemingly long, illustrious career ahead of him. Which one will rise to the occasion and which one will be outshined? It won't surprise me however it shakes out. Beltran has been a monster in the postseason throughout his career. His career batting average in the playoffs is .337, certainly something to be concerned with if you're the Sox. Xander actually reminds me of Beltran too. Kind of quiet, unassuming, but undeniable talent. His ability to get on base is a huge boost to Boston's lineup.
Lastly, the Red Sox ability to come from behind has been ridiculous. Two grand slams late in ALCS games, clutch bullpen pitching, and a never give up attitude pushed them into the World Series. The Cardinals didn't face adversity like that in the NLCS. They outmatched the Dodgers, as much as it pains me to say, I'm not so sure you can say that about the Red Sox. Yes, Boston deserved to win when it all boiled down, but beating the Tigers when they trotted out Scherzer twice and Verlander was amazing. I believe they have a mental edge over the Cardinals.
All in all, I have to pick the Red Sox. I highly doubt it's going to be easy, I'm thinking at least 6 games. But given the depth of their bench, bullpen, and the fact that they have home field advantage (thank you, AL All-Stars) I have to give them the edge. Should be a great Series, and I can't wait for it to start.
GO SOX
UPDATE-The Cardinals will send Wacha to the mound in Game 2, which is definitely not what I was anticipating. I think that game could be the pivotal one in the series. He's been their ace so far, but the pressure of the World Series and pitching in a place like Fenway has to be intimidating for the rookie. Will he step up and dominate like he did in the NLCS, or will he be hittable like he was during the regular season on the road?
Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports
Wainwright and Wacha are clearly the two pitchers that the Cardinals are banking on, and with good reason. Wacha has been arguably the most impressive pitcher in the postseason and Wainwright is already a household name. They give St. Louis an immediate advantage in any series. However, St. Louis doesn't have the home field advantage, which could negate their aces. Wainwright's ERA on the road is nearly a run higher than at home, 3.36 compared to 2.53. I realize that's not much, but considering how evenly matched the two teams are, any edge is going to be huge for either team. Wacha's road ERA is over 2 runs higher than his home ERA, 4.34 compared to 2.15. Granted Wacha didn't pitch on the road in the NLCS, so it's doubtful he starts Game 2. I would assume that means the Red Sox will pitch Lackey in Game 2, who was excellent on the road in Game 3 of the ALCS and throughout the season was much better pitching at Fenway. I'm going to assume this means Buchholz throws Game 3 against Wacha, and I'll give him the edge even though he hasn't been nearly as sharp during the postseason as he was throughout the regular season.
I also have to give the edge to Boston when it comes to the bullpen. Their ERA is a full run lower than the St. Louis bullpen and they've thrown 2 more innings. Koji Uehara, the ALCS MVP, has been the most impressive reliever in MLB this year. He throws nearly nothing but strikes and has the stuff to get anyone out. Yes he did give up a walkoff home run to the Rays, but he hasn't looked back since. If the game is on the line, there is no one else in baseball I'd trust more than Koji.
The team batting stats also favor the Red Sox. They've hit .236/.325/.365 while the Cardinals have hit .210/.285/.325 throughout October. Both teams faced some of the best starting pitching in baseball in their Championship Series and the only offensive explosion was the Cardinals in Game 6. Even then they still trail the Red Sox in hitting.
The players I'm most interested in watching throughout the series are Carlos Beltran and Xander Bogaerts. One a 16-year veteran outfielder who is finally getting a taste of the World Series. The other a rookie who has a seemingly long, illustrious career ahead of him. Which one will rise to the occasion and which one will be outshined? It won't surprise me however it shakes out. Beltran has been a monster in the postseason throughout his career. His career batting average in the playoffs is .337, certainly something to be concerned with if you're the Sox. Xander actually reminds me of Beltran too. Kind of quiet, unassuming, but undeniable talent. His ability to get on base is a huge boost to Boston's lineup.
Lastly, the Red Sox ability to come from behind has been ridiculous. Two grand slams late in ALCS games, clutch bullpen pitching, and a never give up attitude pushed them into the World Series. The Cardinals didn't face adversity like that in the NLCS. They outmatched the Dodgers, as much as it pains me to say, I'm not so sure you can say that about the Red Sox. Yes, Boston deserved to win when it all boiled down, but beating the Tigers when they trotted out Scherzer twice and Verlander was amazing. I believe they have a mental edge over the Cardinals.
All in all, I have to pick the Red Sox. I highly doubt it's going to be easy, I'm thinking at least 6 games. But given the depth of their bench, bullpen, and the fact that they have home field advantage (thank you, AL All-Stars) I have to give them the edge. Should be a great Series, and I can't wait for it to start.
GO SOX
UPDATE-The Cardinals will send Wacha to the mound in Game 2, which is definitely not what I was anticipating. I think that game could be the pivotal one in the series. He's been their ace so far, but the pressure of the World Series and pitching in a place like Fenway has to be intimidating for the rookie. Will he step up and dominate like he did in the NLCS, or will he be hittable like he was during the regular season on the road?
Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports
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