First Impressions

April has come and gone and the MLB season is in full swing. Now that there have been enough games played to show some real trends it's a good time to reflect on what we've seen so far. There have been some surprises, some disappointments, and some just as we expected. Not going to go team by team here, just going to point out my thoughts so far.

Biggest surprises-Have to go with the Red Sox and Rockies here. The Red Sox currently have the best record in baseball at 19-8 and the Rockies are 3rd best at 17-10.  I said in my MLB preview that I thought the Sox would make the playoffs. I did not however expect them to look as good as they have. Their starting pitching has been much better than anyone anticipated, thank you very much John Farrell, and they have the best run differential in MLB right now at +47. If things continue the way April went, we could see Boston making a serious title run.

The Rockies have been equally surprising, if not more so. No one I saw had them anywhere above about 75 wins this year before the season began.  That hasn't stopped them though. They've scored the second most runs out of any team and their team ERA is 10th in MLB.  If they can stay healthy they could very easily be this year's 2012 Oakland A's. They're going to have a tough time with this as the Giants are clearly still very good and the Dodgers should pick things up if/when they get healthy. For now though, the Rockies are turning a lot of heads and rightly so.

And as much as I hate them, the Yankees deserved to be mentioned. They're way better than I think anyone anticipated. Kind of scary to think about the players they're going to get back later this season.

Biggest Disappointments-Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Angels. All three of these teams made big offseason acquisitions and all three haven't done squat with them. Granted the Dodgers are dealing with a ridiculous amount of injuries but they should be scoring more runs. They're second to last in batting average, runs, and 3rd worst in slugging percentage in MLB. That simply isn't going to win ball games. Add in the injuries to Greinke and Billingsley and this season could seriously be slipping away from them.

The Angels and their fans have to be sick of this. Their owner breaks the bank and signs guys to massive contracts only to have them fall flat on their faces in April. Josh Hamilton is so lost at the plate he couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat right now. They've only got 2 regular starters hitting over .300 right now and their team ERA is 4.91 which is next to last in MLB. They're simply not a good team right now. The scariest thing for Angels fans is there is no Mike Trout waiting in the wings to come rescue them this year. He's already there and he's only hitting .270 right now. Will he pick it up? Absolutely. But there is no way he's going to put up numbers like he did last year. And if he does, they should just enshrine him in Cooperstown right now. All of this and I didn't even mention their bullpen. Which is terrible. Their save percentage right now is 38%, 2nd worst in all of baseball.

Toronto has to be the biggest disappointment of all.  Nearly everyone I saw picked them to win the AL East with relative ease. I'm not really sure why, the guys they got didn't do ANYTHING last year except for Dickey. But Dickey isn't a typical pitcher. It's not like they got a guy like Kershaw or Verlander. They got a guy who had an ERA lower than 4.62 only once before last year. He throws a completely unpredictable pitch and is therefore a completely unpredictable pitcher.  The amount of pressure heaped on the Blue Jays doomed them from the time Spring Training started.

So what does this all mean? Nothing. It's only May, we still have a TON of games to play. But if these trends continue there are going to be a lot of analysts and experts in line for a nice crow dinner. Not to mention managers and GMs on the hot seat. You have to think Scioscia is worried about his job and Mattingly can't be too comfortable right now either. It's a long season, can't wait to see how the rest of it plays out.

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Green Jacket Time

RJ Bell of Pregame.com just sent out his awesome rundown of odds for The Masters. Check it out, pretty interesting to see who the bookmakers think will win. Some cool prop bets too.

Masters Odds:

TIGER WOODS: 7/2 ($100 wins $350)
RORY McILROY: 12/1
PHIL MICKELSON: 15/1
JUSTIN ROSE: 22/1
LEE WESTWOOD: 25/1
KEEGAN BRADLEY: 25/1
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN: 25/1
CHARL SCHWARTZEL: 25/1B
BRANDT SNEDEKER: 30/1
DUSTIN JOHNSON: 30/1
ADAM SCOTT: 32/1
MATT KUCHAR: 33/1
LUKE DONALD: 35/1
BUBBA WATSON: 35/1

Big-Name Long shots:

SERGIO GARCIA: 50/1
JIM FURYK: 66/1E
ERNIE ELS: 125/1
VIJAY SINGH: 150/1
FRED COUPLES: 150/1
TOM WATSON: 2000/1

Tiger Woods Props

Will Tiger Woods win Masters?
Yes: $100 wins $350 (22% chance)
No: $420 wins $100 (78% chance)

Will Tiger Woods OR Rory McIlroy win Masters?
Yes: $100 wins $250 (28% chance)
No: $300 wins $100 (72% chance)

Will Tiger Woods make the cut?
Yes: $1,400 wins $100 (91% chance)
No: $100 wins $1,000 (9% chance)

Lowest round by Tiger Woods: over/under 67.5

Highest round by Tiger Woods: over/under 72.5

Over/Under for Tiger Woods finish position: over/under 4.5 place

Will Tiger Woods win by 5 or more shots: $100 wins $1,200

Will Tiger Woods lead (or tie for lead) after all FOUR rounds: $100 wins $1,600

Will Tiger Woods have a hole-in-one? $100 wins $8,000

How many majors will Tiger Woods win in 2013?
Zero: $130 wins $100 (52% chance)
One: $100 wins $200 (31% chance)
Two: $100 wins $700 (11.5% chance)
Three: $100 wins $2,000 (4% chance)
Four: $100 wins $6,600 (1.5% chance)

General Props

Winning Score: over/under 275.5

What age will the winner be: over/under 34.5 years old

Lowest round, any golfer: over/under 65

Will any golfer have a hole-in-one: Exactly 50% chance!

Over/Under for Phil Mickelson finish position: over/under 10.5 place

Big-Name Match-ups

(best score wins between two golfers)

Tiger Woods ($190 wins $100)
vs
Rory McIlroy ($100 wins $170)

Tiger Woods ($190 wins $100)
vs
Phil Mickelson ($100 wins $170

Phil Mickelson ($110 wins $100)
vs.
Rory McIlroy ($110 wins $100)

(Odds are a consensus from multiple Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. LVH deserves mention for being especially creative with golf odds)

While I don't think Tiger is going to win, I do like those odds. He's playing well and he knows now is the time. Other than that I really like the Over for the lowest round at 65, and I definitely like Tiger to beat Phil. I'd like to pick someone to win the whole thing, but I just don't know. There have been way too many first-time winners over the past 2 years in majors for me to make a confident pick. But like I said, if someone gave me $100 to put on one guy, it's hard to ignore the decent payout for picking Tiger. If it was my money, I'd focus strictly on the prop bets. 

Again, big thanks must go out to RJ Bell of Pregame.com. He really is the best in the business when it comes to this stuff.

Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports

2013 MLB Predictions

I'm like a kid on Christmas Eve right now. Can't sleep because I know when I wake up, there is going to be presents under the tree, err, on the TV. Baseball is back. Finally. Here are my predictions for this season.

AL East-As much as it pains me, I'm going to go with the Orioles winning the division. I can see Boston getting a Wild Card spot, or at least being in contention late in the year. For all those singing the praises of the Blue Jays I have one question. How did all those guys do last year? They were awful. Just because they got traded doesn't mean they're going to regain their form. Plus Toronto has a new manager. I think they'll finish better than the Yankees (praying for a 65-win season out of them) but I don't think they'll be much of a threat to the playoffs. The Orioles got hot last year at the right time. I think that confidence boost will carry over.

AL Central-Tigers. Unless one of their key guys gets hurt, who in that division is better? No one, that's who. They're far and away the best team in the division.

AL West-This one is tricky. The numbers say go with the Angels. They said that last year too and they missed the playoffs. I don't think they'll win the division, but I do think they get a Wild Card spot. I think Texas takes the division this year. Yes they lost Hamilton but they have so many other guys that can help fill that void I don't think they'll miss him too much. The Angels will be tough, but they lack a decent bullpen. I also don't see much leadership on that team. No one seems to want to step in and be "that guy."

NL East-I think this one is going to come down to the final week of the season between Atlanta and Washington. What will Strasburg look like without a leash? Will Kimbrel be unstoppable this year? How will the Braves play without Chipper on the field? There are so many exciting story-lines in the NL East I can't wait to see those teams go at it. Apologies to Mets and Marlins fans, that's gotta suck. Either way, I have Atlanta and Washington both making the postseason.

NL Central-The Cardinals, I guess? Losing Carpenter would be a lot bigger if he'd been there last year. They know how to win without him. The Brewers could make some noise, but I just don't think they have the arms to get it done down the stretch.

NL West-Hopefully I not putting the jinx on my boys, but I'm going with Big Blue. I think this is the year the Dodgers put it all together. Yes, they spent a boatload of money. I'll be the first one to tell you that buying a championship is much more difficult now than it was 15 years ago. However, they already had a good amount of talent on that team, with established leaders, so I don't think bringing in the stars they did will have a negative impact. This is another race that I think will come down to the finals weeks. The Giants are still a very good team. They proved last year they know how to win even when Lincecum struggles. Cain is now the ace of that staff and with Romo anchoring the 'pen they are definitely a scary team. I'll say the Dodgers win the division and the Giants will take a Wild Card spot.

Awards

NL Cy Young-Kershaw. He's just too good. If he's healthy, I'll take him over anyone else in baseball right now.

NL MVP-Three names come to mind for this one. Joey Votto, Matt Kemp, and Andrew McCutchen. All three are already bonafide stars in the league. Kemp may have trouble because he has so much talent around him. 'Cutch will have trouble because the Pirates probably won't win enough games for him to receive the recognition he clearly deserves. Seriously, think about how bad they would be without him. Votto is my front-runner.

NL Rookie Of The Year- Travis D'Arnaud. He's probably going to be the guy that gives Mets fans hopes and dreams for the next few seasons.

AL Cy Young-Man it's hard to go against Verlander here, so I won't. He's filthy. He throws hard, he goes deep into games, and he's in a weak division that will inflate his win total and shrink his ERA. That's not to suggest he isn't good, he's amazing. Easily one of the top 5 pitchers in all of baseball.

AL MVP-Have to go with Mike Trout here. I argued last year that he should've been the MVP and I think this year he'll make it impossible not to vote for him. He's too good to have a sophomore slump and with more experience under his belt I can see him running away with this award.

AL Rookie Of The Year-I'm going with Jackie Bradley Jr. here. Yes I'm a homer. I know it, and I'll freely admit it. But you can't deny his talent. If he can put together a year where he hits about .280 with 20-25 home runs and 30-35 stolen bases, he can take this award. Plus, if the Red Sox can make the playoffs, it's going to hard to ignore his contributions. Again, I know I'm a homer. Get over it.

I'm going to say the Rangers win it all this year too. I think this is the year they finally get over the hump. If Yu Darvish can pitch consistently as well as we all know he can, that's going to be a tough team to beat 4 out of 7 games. However it shakes out though, I'm just thrilled baseball is back. So there ya go, my predictions for the MLB season. Agree? Disagree? Think I'm unworthy of watching baseball? Well, in the wise words of The Dude, "that's just, like, your opinion, man."

Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports

March Madness Is Here

Here's the most comprehensive information for March Madness that you'll find anywhere. Thanks to RJ Bell of Pregame.com. for providing me with this. 

Only TWO lower seeds favored:
(11) Minnesota -3 vs. (6) UCLA
(9) Missouri -3 vs. (8) Colorado State

Best first round point spread for each seed (i.e., best chance to win)
1: Gonzaga -21.5 vs. Southern
2: Duke -17.5 vs. Albany
3: Florida -20 vs. Northwestern St
4: Syracuse -14 vs. Montana
5: VCU -7 vs. Akron
6: Arizona -4 vs. Belmont
7: Creighton -3 vs. Cincinnati
8: Pitt -4.5 vs. Wichita St
9: Missouri -3 vs. Colorado State
10: Iowa St +1 vs. Notre Dame
11: Minnesota -3 vs. UCLA
12: Oregon +2.5 vs. Oklahoma St
13: New Mexico St +9 vs. St. Louis
14: Davidson +4 vs. Marquette
15: Pacific +12 vs. Miami-Fl
16: Western Kentucky +19.5 vs. Kansas

Best odds (seeds #1 through #8) to win TOURNAMENT:
1: Louisville 9/2
2: Duke, Miami-FL 8/1
3: Florida: 10/1
4: Michigan 18/1
5: Wisconsin 25/1
6: Arizona 50/1
7: Notre Dame, Creighton 100/1
8: North Carolina: 50/1

5 Teams with Strongest Early Round One Support
New Mexico St opened +10.5, now +9 vs. St. Louis
Albany opened +19, now +17.5 vs. Duke

Florida Gulf Coast opened +14.5, now +12.5 vs. Georgetown
San Diego St opened -1.5, now -3 vs. Oklahoma
Wisconsin opened -4, now -5.5 vs. Ole Miss

Odds to Win NCAA Title:
LOUISVILLE 9/2
INDIANA 7/1
DUKE 8/1
MIAMI FL 8/1
FLORIDA 10/1
KANSAS 10/1
GONZAGA 12/1
OHIO ST 15/1
MICHIGAN ST 18/1
MICHIGAN 18/1
GEORGETOWN 18/1
WISCONSIN 25/1
SYRACUSE 30/1
ST LOUIS 30/1
NEW MEXICO 30/1
MARQUETTE 40/1
ARIZONA 50/1
NORTH CAROLINA 50/1
VCU 60/1
NC STATE 60/1
KANSAS ST 60/1
PITTSBURGH 66/1
MISSOURI 100/1
MINNESOTA 100/1
NOTRE DAME 100/1
MEMPHIS 100/1
CREIGHTON 100/1
BUTLER 100/1
OREGON 100/1
OKLAHOMA ST 105/1
UCLA 105/1
UNLV 105/1
ILLINOIS 200/1
COLORADO 300/1
CINCINNATI 300/1
WICHITA ST 300/1
CALIFORNIA 300/1
SAN DIEGO ST 300/1
TEMPLE 500/1
VILLANOVA 500/1
IOWA ST 500/1
COLORADO ST 500/1
OKLAHOMA 500/1
OLE MISS 500/1
ST MARY'S 1000/1
DAVIDSON 1000/1
BELMONT 1000/1
LASALLE 1000/1
BOISE ST 1000/1
TEAM NOT LISTED 150/1

2012 NCAA Tournament Action:

Over $12 BILLION worldwide expected to be wagered on NCAA Tournament
That’s more action combined than on the Super Bowl!
Less than 1% of worldwide sports betting occurs in Nevada

Over 100 million people expected to take part in tournament bracket contests!

Perfect Bracket Odds:
There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible brackets (9.2 quintillion)
That's the number nine follow by eighteen zeros!
That’s ONE MILLION times bigger than 9 TRILLION!

Some examples of just how big this number is:

If everyone on the planet each randomly filled out a bracket, the odds would be over ONE BILLION to 1 against any person having a perfect bracket.

If one bracket per second was filled out, it would take 292 BILLION years to fill out all possible brackets (that's 20 times longer than the universe has existed).

If all the people on earth filled out one bracket per second, it would take over 43 years to fill out every possible bracket.

If all possible brackets were stacked on top of each other (on standard paper), the pile would reach from the moon and back over 1.1 million times.

All possible brackets (on standard paper) would weigh 90,000 times more than every man, women, and child on earth combined.

Even if a person had a 90% chance of winning each game he picked, his odds would still be 763 to 1 against picking a perfect bracket.

68 vs. 64 teams:
The calculations above assume a 64 team bracket – if expanded to consider 68 teams, multiple the figures by 4.

Bracket Picking Rules & Tips from Vegas!
(all records since modern era began in 1985 unless noted)

FIRST ROUND picks:
TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose.
#16 seeds are 0 for 112
#15 seeds are 6 for 112

TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win.
At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 24 of 28 years
#13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games

TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds.
#12 seeds have won at least one game 22 of 24 years
#9 seeds are 4 wins above .500 vs. #8 seeds

SECOND ROUND picks:
TIP: Advance #1 seeds into the 3rd round unless very good reason not to.
88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16

TIP: Keep advancing any #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
#10 and #12 seeds combined win about half the time in Round Two
#12 seeds have the same number of Sweet 16 appearances overall than #7 seeds
A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 26 of 28 years

TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed.
Only once in 28 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen

TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the 2nd round.
Only 7 of 448 teams (1.6%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12

Sweet 16 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8.
72% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8
(that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!)

TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8
26 have made it the Sweet 16, but only 1 has ever advanced

Elite 8 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 22 of 28 years

TIP: Advance no team worse than a #8 seed to the Final Four.
Only 3 of 112 Final Four teams have been seeded worse than #8

FINAL FOUR round picks:
TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game.
Only ONE team worse than #6 has made it in last 27 years

TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game
Since tournament seeding began 34 years ago (1979)
only 6 times have two #1 seeds made the finals

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick:
TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all.
For 24 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!

Thanks again to RJ Bell of Pregame.com for putting all of this together. I can't imagine how long it took, but I'm certainly grateful. There is a ton of good information here and some very helpful hints. Good luck to you all, unless of course you're in my bracket pool. If that's the case, disregard everything above.

Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports

UFC 158 Preview

Let's be honest, the title fight for UFC 158 is the only fight we really care about. Georges St. Pierre, the current Welterweight champ, is facing off against Nick Diaz. This fight has been in the works for the better part of two years and there is no shortage of bad blood between these two guys.

We all know about Diaz by now. He's a hothead, a trash talker, a guy who has been suspended for testing positive for marijuana, and a former Strikeforce, WEC, and IFC Welterweight champion. He's got great hands, probably some of the best in the division, but I don't see him doing a whole lot of damage to GSP. St. Pierre answered a lot of questions when he beat Condit and I don't see him having any trouble with Diaz. Sure Diaz has the potential to put him to sleep with one punch, that's undeniable. But GSP is too smart to just walk in and get caught.

This is a fight that will probably end up being boring compared to all the build up. I can see the majority of this fight taking place on the ground and GSP dominating. Diaz just doesn't have the ground game that GSP has, and I don't think he can defend himself against what GSP is so great at doing. I want to say I'll be surprised if it ends up being a submission, I think GSP would rather ground and pound him for 5 rounds, but if the opportunity presents itself GSP won't hesitate to choke him out.

Diaz has a puncher's chance in this fight, but that's about it. He doesn't have the ground game and GSP loves to fight on the mat. Game over if you ask me. It also won't surprise me if Diaz ends up getting cut from the UFC after this unless he has a great performance. Dana White has to be sick of dealing with him and his antics, maybe that'll serve as some extra inspiration for Diaz. Then again, I'm sure GSP would love to be the guy who gets Diaz cut. So it works both ways.

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UFC 157 Preview and Predictions

It's finally here. The first female fight in UFC history will go down tonight. Ronda Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche is going to not only be a historic fight because of their gender, but this fight has the chance to do for the UFC what Forrest Griffin and Stephan Bonnar did back in 2005.

The viewership won't be as high as the Griffin/Bonnar fight was, but the potential implications are just as high if not higher. MMA is dominated by men and the audience is almost 100% male. Rousey and Carmouche are breaking down a barrier and could lead the UFC into a whole new demographic. Like Jemele Hill said on Around The Horn, she's not a UFC fan, but she is ordering this fight because of the main event. That has to be music to Dana White's ears.

Alright, enough off that, prediction time. I can't stand Josh Koscheck as a person, but he is a damn good fighter. I think he outclasses Robbie Lawler quite easily. Court McGee vs. Josh Neer should be an interesting fight. McGee has dropped down to 170lbs. which is probably a better fighting weight for him. As much as I like Neer, I think McGee imposes his will and gets the victory.

Urijah Faber vs. Ivan Menjivar has the potential to be great or a total snoozer. I really like Faber and can see him dominating this fight start to finish. Hopefully he gets an early submission and moves on. Admittedly I don't know much about Menjivar, but I know how good Faver can be and when he's on his game he's tough to beat. Machida vs. Henderson is the fight I'm most interested in on this card. Machida's whole career has been based around not getting hit. But he's slowed down quite a bit over the last few years. While Hendo is old now, at least by MMA standards at 42, he's still got cinder blocks for hands. I'll take Hendo by knockout.

Like I said earlier, the main event has all the potential in the world to break down doors for the UFC. However, I don't see this fight going past the first round. Rousey has won all of her professional fights by armbar in the first round. She's much more experienced with all the hype, the big stage, and MMA in general. That's not to say Carmouche can't win this fight. All it takes is one punch, and she can definitely punch. I just think Rousey's judo background is too much for Carmouche to overcome.

So there are my thoughts, what do you think? Do you agree with my picks? Are you interested in the title fight?

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Brains Over Braun

Alright Ryan Braun, now what? You've already tested positive for performance enhancing drugs, though the results were dismissed and you were exonerated based on a technicality. Now your name has shown up on two documents that seem to implicate other PED users. You've had excuses for the first two instances, what's it going to be this time?

As stated above, Braun's positive test was dismissed based on the handling of the sample he gave. What stands out to me though, and always will, was that when he addressed the situation publicly, he said, "People are going to have different opinions. Most of them don't know the real story. It's tough sometime to base your opinion or formulate a decision when you don't know what happened. Overall, everybody has been real supportive." So what is the real story? Why has he only told his teammates what really happened? After doing a fair amount of digging, I was still unable to find the real story. What doesn't make sense to me is the supposed gray area here. He either took PEDs or he didn't. 

Earlier this year, Braun's name popped up on a document created by Anthony Bosch, who founded the Biogenesis of America clinic. Among the names on that list were known PED users such as Alex Rodriguez and Melky Cabrera. Braun's explanation for his name being on that document was that he consulted with Bosch during his eventual successful appeal. Possible explanation? Sure. Heck, that's even probable. It seems a bit odd, but whatever. It's plausible enough to be accepted.

Today, it has been reported that Braun's name is on yet another document, along with A-Rod, Cabrera, and Francisco Cervelli, that seems to suggest he still owes Bosch money. The original document with his name said that he had already paid for whatever he got from Bosch, be it consultation/advice or whatever, but this one doesn't. This one shows the player's names, the amount owed, and a plus sign that is either circled or not. According to sources, the circles were for when payment was made. Braun's plus sign is not circled. The ESPN post about this, (which can be found here) says that the list "was a list of players who received PEDs, and that there is no other reason to be on that paper." I'm not the smartest man in the world, by any stretch, but even I can connect the dots. 

How many times does Braun have to be connected with PEDs before we just accept the fact that he used them? He can't say he never tested positive, because he did. Three times now he's been connected to the use of performance enhancing drugs. Twice he's wriggled his way away from the connections. Does he have another trick up his sleeve, or is this the connection that will ultimately be his downfall?

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