Saturday, August 31, 2013

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

Now that my drafts are over, meaning my friends who I play with can't learn/steal my strategy, I'll post this. I know it's pretty late, but just in case you haven't drafted for your fantasy league, here is how I go about drafting my team.

First off, know your league's rules. This is probably the most important aspect aside from actually drafting players. Is your league QB heavy? For instance, one of the leagues I play in gives you 6 points for every passing TD. This makes the QB the most "profitable" position. That being said, drafting a QB with the 1-5 pick still isn't all that advisable in this format. Running backs are going to be your bread and butter. Plus, the drop off between top tier RBs and 2nd tier is greater than that of QBs. In summation, know the rules. If you don't, you're doomed before you start. 

Now that you know the rules, which positions should you draft where? Regardless of the rules, if you have a pick in the top 5 or 6, you should be taking a running back. Like I said, these are the workhorses of Fantasy Football. However after that, you can theoretically get away with going for a QB. Think of it this way, if I'm drafting 7th out of 10 positions in the first round I'm probably drafting 4th in the 2nd round. By this point all of the huge name RBs are going to be gone. But I've got a shot at Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady. And if they're all gone that means there is still a star RB available, so draft him. Anyway, in our hypothetical situation I'm taking a top QB in the first round and then a RB in the second round. This is where a lot of guys make a mistake. You have to wait quite a few picks before making your 3rd round selection. In all likelihood most of your starting RBs are going to be gone. But you should have a good shot at a #1 wide receiver. Draft someone who is on the same team as your QB. If you can, get his favorite target. You do run the risk of having one or the other go cold, but the reward outweighs this in my mind.

The forgotten positions. Everyone says don't draft a kicker until the end and leave the Tight Ends for the later rounds. While you can certainly get a viable kicker late in the draft, you definitely don't need to wait until the last round. For instance, Blair Walsh was the top-scoring kicker in the league I run last year with 165 points. He outscored all but 8 TEs and only 22 RBs scored more points than that. Getting a top-tier kicker is one of those things that can put you over the top in a close week. That being said, only draft one. You will need a replacement during your kicker's bye week, but they're plentiful on the waiver wire. A 1-week replacement should be easily found. As far as TEs go, I'm a big advocate of their role in Fantasy Football. These guys are the unsung heroes of wins. They're often the safety valve for the QB and typically the go to Red Zone receiver. Don't draft one in the first 4 or 5 rounds, although I guarantee someone in your league will, but don't overlook them either. Once you have your starting QB, at least 3 of your 4 starting WRs/RBs, think about a TE. If there are still viable WRs and RBs available, go that route. But if you're into the backups now, go for a top TE. It's worth it. The top 10 TEs in my league last year scored 162 or more points. Having one of these guys instead of the 30th ranked RB (Marcel Reese-127 points) gives you an advantage. 

Offense wins games, defense wins championships. This one is tough. Someone in your league will draft a defense probably before the 10th round. This person will likely not make the playoffs. You can wait on this one too, but again, no reason to make it the last round. Again going back to my league last year, the top 10 D/STs scored 131 or more points. That's on average better than a low-tier RB/WR. Also the difference between D/STs is pretty big. Top D/ST last year scored 212 points, compared the #5 who netted 159. That's a huge gap, don't wait too long to take a D/ST.

Subs. Alright, you've got your weekly starting lineup filled, now for the bench. I always try to go with a lineup that will start every week except in the case of bye weeks or injuries. I value my bench, but not to a huge extent. You do need viable options to plug in, but you don't need try to draft top level guys for your bench. This is where backups, short-yardage guys, and handcuffs come in to play. For instance, if you get Matt Forte, think about Michael Bush. You're not going to start Bush on a week to week basis, but when one of your starters gets hurt (and they will) or is on a bye, Bush can be a decent plug in.

So there you go, some things to think about when you head in to your draft lobby. Also, look up rankings from guys like Matthew Berry. He may come off a little snobbish, but he does know what he's talking about. However don't take his word for gospel. He plays in leagues with guys who have been doing this for decades. They have their own theories on which positions to draft where because their league's rules are probably different than yours. Also, the draft kit from ESPN can help as well. But again, sometimes you have to go with your gut. For example, I'm not going to draft RGIII to be my starter. I'm not convinced his knee is going to be 100% and we all know about the sophomore slump, Cam Newton last year is a perfect example. But if he's available in the later rounds, he's worth a look as a back up. When it comes down to it, have some rankings in front of you when you're drafting but don't be afraid to take a risk.

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