The time is upon us. After a 5-month layoff, baseball is back. It's been a fairly crazy offseason, which hopefully means we're in for an entertaining year. Instant replay will be used to a whole new extent, and collisions and home are now outlawed. Sort of. But before the lines are chalked and the umpires yell "play ball" I figured I might as well put my predictions in writing.
Division Winners
NL West- Have to go with the Dodgers here. I'm a whole lot less confident in this pick with the news that broke yesterday about Kershaw going on the DL, but I'm hoping it's nothing too serious. If he can come back and even be 80% of what he was last year, the Dodgers are set up to make another deep run in the playoffs. Their biggest concern is of course injuries. But if they can get and stay healthy, they match up with anyone across the league. And they should considering how much money they've spent recently
AL West- Quite possibly my favorite division in baseball. The teams spend money like it's going out of style, other than Oakland of course, but never get the desired results. Is this the year the Angels finally get what they're paying for? Can the A's continue out-playing their division rivals despite having the 6th lowest payroll in all of baseball? Will the Rangers get back to the playoffs? Honestly, I have no idea. I'm going to go with the A's again. They're scrappy, they good starting pitching, and they don't seem to pay attention to anyone's opinion of them. I love that.
NL Central- Cardinals. It's always the Cardinals. The Pirates were a nice surprise last year and I sincerely hope they build on the 2013 season, but I can't go against St. Louis. They're just too good.
AL Central- Much like the NL Central, the AL Central is dominated by one team. The Tigers have one of the best top-to-bottom lineups in baseball in a pretty mediocre division. The Royals could make some noise, and the Indians were certainly a pleasant surprise last year. But until someone dethrones the Tigers I see no reason to go against them.
NL East- The division should be decided between the Nationals and Braves. The Nationals have the same issue the Dodgers do, injuries. If they can stay healthy and perform at the level we all know they're capable of, they should take the division with relative ease. The Braves lost Hudson and McCann, two guys who were big parts of their success.
AL East- Easily the most stressful division. Can the Red Sox repeat? Will the Rays make yet another run? Sorry Yankees fans, but I don't believe in your ancient lineup. As for the Orioles, you never know what you'll get from them. I'm gonna be a homer and pick the Red Sox simply based on their pitching, but it won't surprise me one bit if the Rays end up taking the division.
Wildcards- In the National League the Braves and Pirates should both make the postseason again in 2014. It won't surprise me if either end up winning their division, but I don't have enough confidence to just pick them outright. As for the American League I'm going with the Rays (or Red Sox if the Rays end up winning the division) and the Angels. The Rays are yet again a very good team, and I think the Angels are finally going to get some results out of their ridiculous payroll.
World Series- Is this the year the Dodgers finally bring a title back to Los Angeles for the first time since 1988? They're certainly built to. They have an abundance of outfielders and a fantastic pitching staff. They should win the World Series. In fact, I'm predicting a rematch of the '88 Series. LA over Oakland, only this time in 6 games. I love the Red Sox, but being able to capture the magic they had last season again is nearly impossible. The Tigers were pushed to the brink by the A's last season in the ALDS and I think the experience the A's gained last year will only serve to push them over the top this year. But LA has the best shot at winning the World Series this year.
Individual Awards
NL Rookie of the Year- Billy Hamilton, Billy Hamilton, Billy Hamilton, Billy freakin' Hamilton. I think this guy is really going to be a game-changer. If he gets on base he's going to steal. There are no two ways about it. Between putting himself in scoring position and disrupting the pitcher's process, he can have a huge impact on the outcome of a game. I really think he's going to excel.
AL Rookie of the Year- Xander Bogaerts. We all saw what he did in the postseason last year. His slash line was .296/.412./.481 in the playoffs. His average in the ALCS was .500, against the Tigers. The guy can hit and he's sure-handed in the field.
NL Cy Young- Of course I had Kershaw penciled in here. He is the best pitcher in baseball. But this injury has me worried. He's never been on the DL before. So not only does he have to get healthy, but how will he respond when he does come back? I'm still picking him as the favorite to win the award.
AL Cy Young- Yu Darvish and Justin Verlander are the most popular picks by the "experts" but I'm going in a different direction. I'm going with Jon Lester. I think this will be the year he pitches as well in the regular season as he does in the postseason. Will I be surprised if Darvish or Verlander end up winning it? Of course not, but it's no fun picking the same person as everyone else.
NL MVP- I can't help but wonder why I see so many people picking Bryce Harper here. The kid is a fine ballplayer, but so far he hasn't been anything special at the plate. His lifetime, mind you that's only two seasons, average is .272 and he strikes out far too often in my mind. He did cut his strikeout total by nearly 30 last year compared to his rookie season, but his home run, RBI, stolen base, doubles, and triples all dropped as well and his total walks only went up by 5. He has a long way to go. Anyway, I'm going with Hanley Ramirez. He's in a contract year and if he can stay healthy and do what he did last season (.345/.402/.638) he could run away with the award.
AL MVP- Mike Trout. Definitely should've won it in 2012 and probably should've won it last year too. He's the best all-around player in the game. If the Angels make the playoffs he should be the clear winner. Finally.
There ya go. I have less confidence in these picks than any other predictions I've written about. This season should be ridiculous. Between Cano in Seattle, Jeter's farewell season, Puig's first full year, and everything else we can't predict, it's going to be a fun year.
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Sunday, March 30, 2014
Monday, March 17, 2014
March Madness Bracket Tips
As usual, RJ Bell of Pregame.com put out his extensive list of bracket tips and trends. It's a comprehensive list that takes a bit of time to read, but he points out things that the common fan, and even some die-hards, might normally miss.
Let's start with some astonishing numbers that will put into perspective how unlikely a perfect bracket really is.
Let's start with some astonishing numbers that will put into perspective how unlikely a perfect bracket really is.
| ***2014 NCAA Tournament Action: Over $12 BILLION worldwide expected to be wagered on NCAA Tournament That’s more action combined than on the Super Bowl! Less than 1% of worldwide sports betting occurs in Nevada Over 100 million people expected to take part in tournament bracket contests! ***Perfect Bracket Odds:
Yeah, no wonder Warren Buffet is offering a billion dollars. Alright, on to the actual tips and trends for the tournament and your bracket. By the way, I expect a cut of the billion if you read this and end up striking gold. 68 vs. 64 teams: The calculations above assume a 64 team bracket – if expanded to consider 68 teams, multiple the figures by 4. *** 14 Bracket Picking Rules from Vegas! (all records since modern era began in 1985 unless noted) FIRST ROUND picks: TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose. #16 seeds are 0 for 116 #15 seeds are 7 for 116 TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win. At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 25 of 29 years #13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds. #12 seeds have won at least one game 23 of 25 years #9 seeds are 4 wins above .500 vs. #8 seeds SECOND ROUND picks: TIP: Advance #1 seeds into the 3rd round unless very good reason not to. 88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16 TIP: Keep advancing any #12 seeds you picked to win in Round One. #12 seeds win nearly half the time in Round Two #12 seeds have more Sweet 16 appearances overall than #7 seeds A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 27 of 29 years TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed. Only ONCE in 29 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the 2nd round. Only 9 of 464 teams (less than 2%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12 Sweet 16 round picks: TIP: Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8. 71% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8 (that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!) TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8 26 seeds worse than 11 have made it the Sweet 16 but only ONE (of 232) Elite 8 teams seeded worse than #11 Elite 8 round picks: TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four. The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 23 of 29 years TIP: Advance no team worse than a #9 seed to the Final Four. Only 3 of 140 Final Four teams (since 1979) have been seeded worse than #9 FINAL FOUR round picks: TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game. Only ONE team worse than #6 has made it in last 28 years TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game Since tournament seeding began 35 years ago (1979) only 6 times have two #1 seeds made the finals CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick: TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all. For 25 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or better! There you have it, I told you that was going to be a ton of information. But where else are you going to find that many tips and trends in one place? You aren't. Bell is simply the best at what he does and I'm grateful he shares this information with me so I can then pass it on to you. Good luck!!!! Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports |
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