2015 March Madness Bracket Tips

As usual, RJ Bell of Pregame.com has put together a great list of tips for this year's March Madness tournament. You'll be hard-pressed to find a better list of tips, facts, odds, and information.

*** 2015 NCAA Tournament Action:

Over $12 BILLION worldwide expected to be wagered on NCAA Tournament
That’s MORE action combined than generated by the Super Bowl!
(it’s estimated that less than 1% of worldwide sports betting occurs in Nevada

Over 100 million people expected to take part in tournament BRACKET contests!

Vegas Grades Committee

Vegas strongly agrees with Committee.
Pro Bettor David Malinsky says NO TEAM left out of Tournament would be favored against ANY at-large selection!
Said another way, Vegas feels as if the Committee was literally PERFECT picking the teams to include in the field.

Also no mistakes with #1 seeds. No non-#1 seed would be favored against any of the #1 seeds.

*** Kentucky

Toughest Tourney game for Kentucky? Vegas consensus says Wisconsin.
Projected spread: Kentucky favored by 5.5 over Wisconsin

Bookmaker Bob Scucci says the 1991 UNLV team would be favored by 6 points over this year's Kentucky team

Vegas Consensus says the 2012 Kentucky championship team would be favored by 3.5 points over this year’s Kentucky team.

Great college team vs. worst pro team?
Vegas estimate: NY Knicks would be favored by 15 points over Kentucky (assuming game played under NBA rules)

Kentucky was a 50/1 longshot to go undefeated when the prop was first offered at the start of the season!

*** Perfect Bracket Odds:

There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible brackets (9.2 quintillion)
That's the number nine followed by 18 zeros!
That’s over ONE MILLION times bigger than 9 TRILLION!

Some examples of just how big this number is:

If one bracket per second were filled out, it would take 292 BILLION years to fill out all possible brackets (that's 20 times longer than the universe has existed).

If all the people on earth filled out one bracket per second, it would take over 42 YEARS to fill out every possible bracket.

If everyone on the planet each randomly filled out a bracket, the odds would be over ONE BILLION to 1 against any person having a perfect bracket.

All possible brackets on normal paper would circle the globe over 21 MILLION TIMES.

All possible brackets (on standard paper) would weigh over 184 TRILLION TONS (that’s over 500 MILLION times more than the Empire State Building weighs)

68 vs. 64 teams:
The calculations above assume a 64 team bracket – if expanded to consider 68 teams, multiple the figures by 16.

*** 14 Bracket Picking Rules from Vegas!
(records since modern era began in 1985 unless otherwise noted)

ROUND OF 64 picks:
TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose.
#16 seeds are 0 for 120
#15 seeds are 7 for 120

TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win.
At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 26 of 30 years
#13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games

TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds.
#12 seeds have won at least one game 24 of 26 years (won 3 of 4 last year)
#9 seeds have a winning record against #8 seeds

ROUND OF 32 picks:
TIP: Advance #1 seeds into Sweet 16 in almost all cases.
88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16

TIP: Keep advancing any #12 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
#12 seeds have won 20 of 44 times in Round Two
#12 seeds have the same number of Sweet 16 appearances overall as #7 seeds
A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 28 of 30 years

TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed.
Only ONCE in 30 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen

TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the Round of 32.
Only 9 of 480 teams (less than 2%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12

SWEET 16 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly THREE #1 seeds into the Elite 8.
70% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8
(that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!)

TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8
26 seeds worse than 11 have made it the Sweet 16
but only ONE Elite 8 team (out of a total of 240) has been seeded worse than #11

ELITE 8 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 24 of 30 years

TIP: Advance no team worse than a #9 seed to the Final Four.
Only 3 of 144 Final Four teams (since 1979) have been seeded worse than #9

FINAL FOUR round picks:
TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game.
Only TWO Championship games have had any team worse than a #6 seed (in last 29 years)

TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game
Since tournament seeding began in 1979
#1 seeds have face off in the finals only 6 times

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick:
TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all.
25 of 26 years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!
(last year was the exception!)

UPDATE: 

Kentucky: EVEN MONEY ($100 wins $100)
Wisconsin 8/1
Duke 8/1
Villanova 10/1
Arizona 10/1
Virginia 12/1
Gonzaga 22/1
Notre Dame 25/1
Iowa St 30/1
North Carolina 30/1
Baylor 45/1
Kansas 45/1
Maryland 60/1
Utah 60/1
Oklahoma 60/1
Michigan St 70/1
Louisville 80/1
SMU 80/1
Wichita St 80/1
Northern Iowa 85/1
West Virginia 90/1

Game Spreads
(listing of team with most favorable spread for each seed – a great guide for bracket picking)

#1 Villanova -22 over Lafayette (two 1/16 matchups without spreads due to play-in)
#2 Arizona -23 over Texas Southern
#3 Iowa St -13.5 over UAB
#4 North Carolina -9.5 over Harvard
#5 Arkansas -7.5 over Wofford
#6 SMU -3 over UCLA (two 6/11 matchups without spreads due to play-in)
#7 Wichita St -5 over Indiana
#8 San Diego St -2.5 over St John’s
#9 Purdue -1 over Cincinnati
#10 Ohio St -2.5 over VCU
#11 Texas -1.5 over Butler
#12 Buffalo +4 vs. West Virginia.
#13 Valparaiso +5 vs. Maryland
#14 Georgia St +8.5 vs. Baylor
#15 New Mexico St +11.5 vs. Kansas
#16 Coastal Carolina +20 vs. Wisconsin

Vegas Grades Committee

Pro Bettor David Malinsky says NO TEAM left out of Tournament would be favored against ANY at-large selection!
Said another way, Vegas feels as if the Committee was literally PERFECT picking the teams to include in the field.

Also no mistakes with #1 seeds. No non-#1 seed would be favored against any of the #1 seeds.

Two examples of disagreements among the teams selected:
#11 Texas -1.5 over #6 Butler
#10 Ohio St -2.5 over #7 VCU

*** Kentucky

20/1 payoff if Kentucky never trails in ANY Tournament game

6/1 payoff if Kentucky wins EVERY GAME by double digits

How many total minutes will Kentucky trail in the entire tournament? Over/under 25 minutes

Toughest Tourney game for Kentucky? Vegas consensus says Wisconsin
Projected spread: Kentucky favored by 5.5 over Wisconsin

Kentucky is projected to be NOT less than a DOUBLE DIGIT favorite until at least the Final Four.

Bookmaker Bob Scucci says the 1991 UNLV team would be favored by 6 points over this year's Kentucky team

Vegas Consensus says the 2012 Kentucky championship team would be favored by 3.5 points over this year’s Kentucky team.

Great college team vs. worst pro team?
Vegas estimate: NY Knicks would be favored by 15 points over Kentucky (assuming game played under NBA rules)

Kentucky was a 50/1 longshot to go undefeated when the prop was first offered at the start of the season!

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March Madness Bracket Tips

As usual, RJ Bell of Pregame.com put out his extensive list of bracket tips and trends. It's a comprehensive list that takes a bit of time to read, but he points out things that the common fan, and even some die-hards, might normally miss.

Let's start with some astonishing numbers that will put into perspective how unlikely a perfect bracket really is.

***2014 NCAA Tournament Action: Over $12 BILLION worldwide expected to be wagered on NCAA Tournament That’s more action combined than on the Super Bowl! Less than 1% of worldwide sports betting occurs in Nevada Over 100 million people expected to take part in tournament bracket contests! ***Perfect Bracket Odds: There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible brackets (9.2 quintillion) That's the number nine followed by eighteen zeros! That’s ONE MILLION times bigger than 9 TRILLION! Some examples of just how big this number is: If everyone on the planet each randomly filled out a bracket, the odds would be over ONE BILLION to 1 against any person having a perfect bracket. If one bracket per second was filled out, it would take 292 BILLION years to fill out all possible brackets (that's 20 times longer than the universe has existed). If all the people on earth filled out one bracket per second, it would take over 42 years to fill out every possible bracket. All possible brackets on normal paper would circle the globe over 21 MILLION TIMES. All possible brackets (on standard paper) would weigh over 184 TRILLION TONS (that’s over 500 MILLION times more than the Empire State Building weighs) Yeah, no wonder Warren Buffet is offering a billion dollars. Alright, on to the actual tips and trends for the tournament and your bracket. By the way, I expect a cut of the billion if you read this and end up striking gold. 68 vs. 64 teams: The calculations above assume a 64 team bracket – if expanded to consider 68 teams, multiple the figures by 4. *** 14 Bracket Picking Rules from Vegas! (all records since modern era began in 1985 unless noted) FIRST ROUND picks: TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose. #16 seeds are 0 for 116 #15 seeds are 7 for 116 TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win. At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 25 of 29 years #13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds. #12 seeds have won at least one game 23 of 25 years #9 seeds are 4 wins above .500 vs. #8 seeds SECOND ROUND picks: TIP: Advance #1 seeds into the 3rd round unless very good reason not to. 88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16 TIP: Keep advancing any #12 seeds you picked to win in Round One. #12 seeds win nearly half the time in Round Two #12 seeds have more Sweet 16 appearances overall than #7 seeds A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 27 of 29 years TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed. Only ONCE in 29 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the 2nd round. Only 9 of 464 teams (less than 2%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12 Sweet 16 round picks: TIP: Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8. 71% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8 (that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!) TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8 26 seeds worse than 11 have made it the Sweet 16 but only ONE (of 232) Elite 8 teams seeded worse than #11 Elite 8 round picks: TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four. The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 23 of 29 years TIP: Advance no team worse than a #9 seed to the Final Four. Only 3 of 140 Final Four teams (since 1979) have been seeded worse than #9 FINAL FOUR round picks: TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game. Only ONE team worse than #6 has made it in last 28 years TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game Since tournament seeding began 35 years ago (1979) only 6 times have two #1 seeds made the finals CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick: TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all. For 25 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or better! There you have it, I told you that was going to be a ton of information. But where else are you going to find that many tips and trends in one place? You aren't. Bell is simply the best at what he does and I'm grateful he shares this information with me so I can then pass it on to you. Good luck!!!! Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports

March Madness Is Here

Here's the most comprehensive information for March Madness that you'll find anywhere. Thanks to RJ Bell of Pregame.com. for providing me with this. 

Only TWO lower seeds favored:
(11) Minnesota -3 vs. (6) UCLA
(9) Missouri -3 vs. (8) Colorado State

Best first round point spread for each seed (i.e., best chance to win)
1: Gonzaga -21.5 vs. Southern
2: Duke -17.5 vs. Albany
3: Florida -20 vs. Northwestern St
4: Syracuse -14 vs. Montana
5: VCU -7 vs. Akron
6: Arizona -4 vs. Belmont
7: Creighton -3 vs. Cincinnati
8: Pitt -4.5 vs. Wichita St
9: Missouri -3 vs. Colorado State
10: Iowa St +1 vs. Notre Dame
11: Minnesota -3 vs. UCLA
12: Oregon +2.5 vs. Oklahoma St
13: New Mexico St +9 vs. St. Louis
14: Davidson +4 vs. Marquette
15: Pacific +12 vs. Miami-Fl
16: Western Kentucky +19.5 vs. Kansas

Best odds (seeds #1 through #8) to win TOURNAMENT:
1: Louisville 9/2
2: Duke, Miami-FL 8/1
3: Florida: 10/1
4: Michigan 18/1
5: Wisconsin 25/1
6: Arizona 50/1
7: Notre Dame, Creighton 100/1
8: North Carolina: 50/1

5 Teams with Strongest Early Round One Support
New Mexico St opened +10.5, now +9 vs. St. Louis
Albany opened +19, now +17.5 vs. Duke

Florida Gulf Coast opened +14.5, now +12.5 vs. Georgetown
San Diego St opened -1.5, now -3 vs. Oklahoma
Wisconsin opened -4, now -5.5 vs. Ole Miss

Odds to Win NCAA Title:
LOUISVILLE 9/2
INDIANA 7/1
DUKE 8/1
MIAMI FL 8/1
FLORIDA 10/1
KANSAS 10/1
GONZAGA 12/1
OHIO ST 15/1
MICHIGAN ST 18/1
MICHIGAN 18/1
GEORGETOWN 18/1
WISCONSIN 25/1
SYRACUSE 30/1
ST LOUIS 30/1
NEW MEXICO 30/1
MARQUETTE 40/1
ARIZONA 50/1
NORTH CAROLINA 50/1
VCU 60/1
NC STATE 60/1
KANSAS ST 60/1
PITTSBURGH 66/1
MISSOURI 100/1
MINNESOTA 100/1
NOTRE DAME 100/1
MEMPHIS 100/1
CREIGHTON 100/1
BUTLER 100/1
OREGON 100/1
OKLAHOMA ST 105/1
UCLA 105/1
UNLV 105/1
ILLINOIS 200/1
COLORADO 300/1
CINCINNATI 300/1
WICHITA ST 300/1
CALIFORNIA 300/1
SAN DIEGO ST 300/1
TEMPLE 500/1
VILLANOVA 500/1
IOWA ST 500/1
COLORADO ST 500/1
OKLAHOMA 500/1
OLE MISS 500/1
ST MARY'S 1000/1
DAVIDSON 1000/1
BELMONT 1000/1
LASALLE 1000/1
BOISE ST 1000/1
TEAM NOT LISTED 150/1

2012 NCAA Tournament Action:

Over $12 BILLION worldwide expected to be wagered on NCAA Tournament
That’s more action combined than on the Super Bowl!
Less than 1% of worldwide sports betting occurs in Nevada

Over 100 million people expected to take part in tournament bracket contests!

Perfect Bracket Odds:
There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible brackets (9.2 quintillion)
That's the number nine follow by eighteen zeros!
That’s ONE MILLION times bigger than 9 TRILLION!

Some examples of just how big this number is:

If everyone on the planet each randomly filled out a bracket, the odds would be over ONE BILLION to 1 against any person having a perfect bracket.

If one bracket per second was filled out, it would take 292 BILLION years to fill out all possible brackets (that's 20 times longer than the universe has existed).

If all the people on earth filled out one bracket per second, it would take over 43 years to fill out every possible bracket.

If all possible brackets were stacked on top of each other (on standard paper), the pile would reach from the moon and back over 1.1 million times.

All possible brackets (on standard paper) would weigh 90,000 times more than every man, women, and child on earth combined.

Even if a person had a 90% chance of winning each game he picked, his odds would still be 763 to 1 against picking a perfect bracket.

68 vs. 64 teams:
The calculations above assume a 64 team bracket – if expanded to consider 68 teams, multiple the figures by 4.

Bracket Picking Rules & Tips from Vegas!
(all records since modern era began in 1985 unless noted)

FIRST ROUND picks:
TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose.
#16 seeds are 0 for 112
#15 seeds are 6 for 112

TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win.
At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 24 of 28 years
#13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games

TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds.
#12 seeds have won at least one game 22 of 24 years
#9 seeds are 4 wins above .500 vs. #8 seeds

SECOND ROUND picks:
TIP: Advance #1 seeds into the 3rd round unless very good reason not to.
88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16

TIP: Keep advancing any #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
#10 and #12 seeds combined win about half the time in Round Two
#12 seeds have the same number of Sweet 16 appearances overall than #7 seeds
A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 26 of 28 years

TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed.
Only once in 28 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen

TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the 2nd round.
Only 7 of 448 teams (1.6%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12

Sweet 16 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8.
72% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8
(that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!)

TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8
26 have made it the Sweet 16, but only 1 has ever advanced

Elite 8 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 22 of 28 years

TIP: Advance no team worse than a #8 seed to the Final Four.
Only 3 of 112 Final Four teams have been seeded worse than #8

FINAL FOUR round picks:
TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game.
Only ONE team worse than #6 has made it in last 27 years

TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game
Since tournament seeding began 34 years ago (1979)
only 6 times have two #1 seeds made the finals

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick:
TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all.
For 24 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!

Thanks again to RJ Bell of Pregame.com for putting all of this together. I can't imagine how long it took, but I'm certainly grateful. There is a ton of good information here and some very helpful hints. Good luck to you all, unless of course you're in my bracket pool. If that's the case, disregard everything above.

Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports