*** 2015 NCAA Tournament Action:
Over $12 BILLION worldwide expected to be wagered on NCAA Tournament
That’s MORE action combined than generated by the Super Bowl!
(it’s estimated that less than 1% of worldwide sports betting occurs in Nevada
Over 100 million people expected to take part in tournament BRACKET contests!
Vegas Grades Committee
Vegas strongly agrees with Committee.
Pro Bettor David Malinsky says NO TEAM left out of Tournament would be favored against ANY at-large selection!
Said another way, Vegas feels as if the Committee was literally PERFECT picking the teams to include in the field.
Also no mistakes with #1 seeds. No non-#1 seed would be favored against any of the #1 seeds.
*** Kentucky
Toughest Tourney game for Kentucky? Vegas consensus says Wisconsin.
Projected spread: Kentucky favored by 5.5 over Wisconsin
Bookmaker Bob Scucci says the 1991 UNLV team would be favored by 6 points over this year's Kentucky team
Vegas Consensus says the 2012 Kentucky championship team would be favored by 3.5 points over this year’s Kentucky team.
Great college team vs. worst pro team?
Vegas estimate: NY Knicks would be favored by 15 points over Kentucky (assuming game played under NBA rules)
Kentucky was a 50/1 longshot to go undefeated when the prop was first offered at the start of the season!
*** Perfect Bracket Odds:
There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible brackets (9.2 quintillion)
That's the number nine followed by 18 zeros!
That’s over ONE MILLION times bigger than 9 TRILLION!
Some examples of just how big this number is:
If one bracket per second were filled out, it would take 292 BILLION years to fill out all possible brackets (that's 20 times longer than the universe has existed).
If all the people on earth filled out one bracket per second, it would take over 42 YEARS to fill out every possible bracket.
Over $12 BILLION worldwide expected to be wagered on NCAA Tournament
That’s MORE action combined than generated by the Super Bowl!
(it’s estimated that less than 1% of worldwide sports betting occurs in Nevada
Over 100 million people expected to take part in tournament BRACKET contests!
Vegas Grades Committee
Vegas strongly agrees with Committee.
Pro Bettor David Malinsky says NO TEAM left out of Tournament would be favored against ANY at-large selection!
Said another way, Vegas feels as if the Committee was literally PERFECT picking the teams to include in the field.
Also no mistakes with #1 seeds. No non-#1 seed would be favored against any of the #1 seeds.
*** Kentucky
Toughest Tourney game for Kentucky? Vegas consensus says Wisconsin.
Projected spread: Kentucky favored by 5.5 over Wisconsin
Bookmaker Bob Scucci says the 1991 UNLV team would be favored by 6 points over this year's Kentucky team
Vegas Consensus says the 2012 Kentucky championship team would be favored by 3.5 points over this year’s Kentucky team.
Great college team vs. worst pro team?
Vegas estimate: NY Knicks would be favored by 15 points over Kentucky (assuming game played under NBA rules)
Kentucky was a 50/1 longshot to go undefeated when the prop was first offered at the start of the season!
*** Perfect Bracket Odds:
There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible brackets (9.2 quintillion)
That's the number nine followed by 18 zeros!
That’s over ONE MILLION times bigger than 9 TRILLION!
Some examples of just how big this number is:
If one bracket per second were filled out, it would take 292 BILLION years to fill out all possible brackets (that's 20 times longer than the universe has existed).
If all the people on earth filled out one bracket per second, it would take over 42 YEARS to fill out every possible bracket.
If everyone on the planet each randomly filled out a bracket, the odds would be over ONE BILLION to 1 against any person having a perfect bracket.
All possible brackets on normal paper would circle the globe over 21 MILLION TIMES.
All possible brackets (on standard paper) would weigh over 184 TRILLION TONS (that’s over 500 MILLION times more than the Empire State Building weighs)
68 vs. 64 teams:
The calculations above assume a 64 team bracket – if expanded to consider 68 teams, multiple the figures by 16.
*** 14 Bracket Picking Rules from Vegas!
(records since modern era began in 1985 unless otherwise noted)
ROUND OF 64 picks:
TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose.
#16 seeds are 0 for 120
#15 seeds are 7 for 120
TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win.
At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 26 of 30 years
#13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games
TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds.
#12 seeds have won at least one game 24 of 26 years (won 3 of 4 last year)
#9 seeds have a winning record against #8 seeds
ROUND OF 32 picks:
TIP: Advance #1 seeds into Sweet 16 in almost all cases.
88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16
TIP: Keep advancing any #12 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
#12 seeds have won 20 of 44 times in Round Two
#12 seeds have the same number of Sweet 16 appearances overall as #7 seeds
A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 28 of 30 years
TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed.
Only ONCE in 30 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen
TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the Round of 32.
Only 9 of 480 teams (less than 2%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12
SWEET 16 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly THREE #1 seeds into the Elite 8.
70% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8
(that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!)
TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8
26 seeds worse than 11 have made it the Sweet 16
but only ONE Elite 8 team (out of a total of 240) has been seeded worse than #11
ELITE 8 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 24 of 30 years
TIP: Advance no team worse than a #9 seed to the Final Four.
Only 3 of 144 Final Four teams (since 1979) have been seeded worse than #9
FINAL FOUR round picks:
TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game.
Only TWO Championship games have had any team worse than a #6 seed (in last 29 years)
TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game
Since tournament seeding began in 1979
#1 seeds have face off in the finals only 6 times
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick:
TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all.
25 of 26 years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!
(last year was the exception!)
68 vs. 64 teams:
The calculations above assume a 64 team bracket – if expanded to consider 68 teams, multiple the figures by 16.
*** 14 Bracket Picking Rules from Vegas!
(records since modern era began in 1985 unless otherwise noted)
ROUND OF 64 picks:
TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose.
#16 seeds are 0 for 120
#15 seeds are 7 for 120
TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win.
At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 26 of 30 years
#13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games
TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds.
#12 seeds have won at least one game 24 of 26 years (won 3 of 4 last year)
#9 seeds have a winning record against #8 seeds
ROUND OF 32 picks:
TIP: Advance #1 seeds into Sweet 16 in almost all cases.
88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16
TIP: Keep advancing any #12 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
#12 seeds have won 20 of 44 times in Round Two
#12 seeds have the same number of Sweet 16 appearances overall as #7 seeds
A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 28 of 30 years
TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed.
Only ONCE in 30 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen
TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the Round of 32.
Only 9 of 480 teams (less than 2%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12
SWEET 16 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly THREE #1 seeds into the Elite 8.
70% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8
(that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!)
TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8
26 seeds worse than 11 have made it the Sweet 16
but only ONE Elite 8 team (out of a total of 240) has been seeded worse than #11
ELITE 8 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 24 of 30 years
TIP: Advance no team worse than a #9 seed to the Final Four.
Only 3 of 144 Final Four teams (since 1979) have been seeded worse than #9
FINAL FOUR round picks:
TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game.
Only TWO Championship games have had any team worse than a #6 seed (in last 29 years)
TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game
Since tournament seeding began in 1979
#1 seeds have face off in the finals only 6 times
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick:
TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all.
25 of 26 years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!
(last year was the exception!)
UPDATE:
Kentucky: EVEN MONEY ($100 wins $100)
Wisconsin 8/1
Duke 8/1
Villanova 10/1
Arizona 10/1
Virginia 12/1
Gonzaga 22/1
Notre Dame 25/1
Iowa St 30/1
North Carolina 30/1
Baylor 45/1
Kansas 45/1
Maryland 60/1
Utah 60/1
Oklahoma 60/1
Michigan St 70/1
Louisville 80/1
SMU 80/1
Wichita St 80/1
Northern Iowa 85/1
West Virginia 90/1
Game Spreads
(listing of team with most favorable spread for each seed – a great guide for bracket picking)
#1 Villanova -22 over Lafayette (two 1/16 matchups without spreads due to play-in)
#2 Arizona -23 over Texas Southern
#3 Iowa St -13.5 over UAB
#4 North Carolina -9.5 over Harvard
#5 Arkansas -7.5 over Wofford
#6 SMU -3 over UCLA (two 6/11 matchups without spreads due to play-in)
#7 Wichita St -5 over Indiana
#8 San Diego St -2.5 over St John’s
#9 Purdue -1 over Cincinnati
#10 Ohio St -2.5 over VCU
#11 Texas -1.5 over Butler
#12 Buffalo +4 vs. West Virginia.
#13 Valparaiso +5 vs. Maryland
#14 Georgia St +8.5 vs. Baylor
#15 New Mexico St +11.5 vs. Kansas
#16 Coastal Carolina +20 vs. Wisconsin
Vegas Grades Committee
Pro Bettor David Malinsky says NO TEAM left out of Tournament would be favored against ANY at-large selection!
Said another way, Vegas feels as if the Committee was literally PERFECT picking the teams to include in the field.
Also no mistakes with #1 seeds. No non-#1 seed would be favored against any of the #1 seeds.
Two examples of disagreements among the teams selected:
#11 Texas -1.5 over #6 Butler
#10 Ohio St -2.5 over #7 VCU
*** Kentucky
20/1 payoff if Kentucky never trails in ANY Tournament game
6/1 payoff if Kentucky wins EVERY GAME by double digits
How many total minutes will Kentucky trail in the entire tournament? Over/under 25 minutes
Toughest Tourney game for Kentucky? Vegas consensus says Wisconsin
Projected spread: Kentucky favored by 5.5 over Wisconsin
Kentucky is projected to be NOT less than a DOUBLE DIGIT favorite until at least the Final Four.
Bookmaker Bob Scucci says the 1991 UNLV team would be favored by 6 points over this year's Kentucky team
Vegas Consensus says the 2012 Kentucky championship team would be favored by 3.5 points over this year’s Kentucky team.
Great college team vs. worst pro team?
Vegas estimate: NY Knicks would be favored by 15 points over Kentucky (assuming game played under NBA rules)
Kentucky was a 50/1 longshot to go undefeated when the prop was first offered at the start of the season!
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