The 2nd part of my fantasy rankings is going to rank my top 10 running backs for the 2014 NFL season. Some people didn't agree with my QB rankings, which is totally fine. I don't expect everyone to go along with what I say. It's important to remember with running backs that you need two guys who are going to get a lot of carries. You need to consider the offense, the other weapons on the team, and who gets the goal-line carries.
1. Adrian Peterson- C'mon, who else would it be? The Vikings aren't a great team, they don't have many offensive weapons, and Adrian Peterson is an absolute beast. He's scored at least 10 touchdowns in each of his 7 seasons and finished with less than 1,400 yards only once. He's an absolute workhorse. Injuries are worrisome, but that goes with every single player on your roster. If you have the first overall pick in your draft you can take AP with confidence.
2. LeSean McCoy- I may be a Cowboys fan and hate the Eagles with a passion, but I'm not an idiot. The only running back with more fantasy points than McCoy over the past three years is AP. He won the rushing title last year by more than 260 yards and that was in his first year in Chip Kelly's new system. There is no reason to expect him to fall off this year. While you may take some crap if you draft McCoy first overall, it's certainly not a terrible idea. The Eagles do have more options than the Vikings, so you probably won't see McCoy getting as many opportunities as Peterson, but they're both going to be fantasy monsters.
3. Jamal Charles- His 19 touchdowns last year was tops for running backs last year and he did it on just 259 carries. For comparison McCoy had 314 carries and Peterson had 279 (in 15 games). However Charles did see more work in the passing game, he had 70 receptions. Charles will once again be a big part of the KC offense, and with Alex Smith at QB I don't expect a ton of deep balls. The West Coast offense is a bit concerning, but Charles is good enough to make taking him high in the draft totally reasonable. I wouldn't take him first overall, but at second or third you're getting a ton of value.
4. Marshawn Lynch- Beast mode. Lynch leads all running backs over the last three years with 35 touchdowns and carries since 2011. He's the definition of a workhorse on a team absolutely committed to the run. While the trend for running backs like Lynch is to break down, at 28 it's not likely to happen to him this year (hopefully I didn't just jinx him). You should have no concerns drafting him if he's available to you in the first round.
5. Matt Forte- I'm cautiously optimistic with Forte. He had the best year of his career last year, but he also played more snaps than any other RB in the league. However, "each of the past three rushers who've led the position in snaps has failed to register a top-nine fantasy campaign the following season," according to ESPN. That is concerning, but it's also something that Forte is certainly capable of putting to rest. He's incredibly fast, powerful, and has great hands. If you're going to take Forte with such a high pick you need to make sure you've got at least two other stars at other positions.
6. Montee Ball- With Knowshon Moreno now in Miami, there is no one standing in Ball's way other than himself. His blocking was what kept him off the field last year, which allowed Moreno to become the featured back. Ball will now reap the benefits of playing beside Peyton. He's likely to get a ton of looks in the passing game, at the goal line, and become a key piece in the Denver offense. He's a risky pick in the first round, but not so much in the second round if you've taken another star RB or QB. However, if you think you can grab him late in the first and still find exceptional talent in the second, don't hesitate.
7. Eddie Lacy- I'm honestly worried about ranking him this high. I know he was the offensive ROY in 2013, and I know the experts have him as high as 4th. But I also know how players fall off in their sophomore season. Lacy was great last year, there's no denying that. But does one season make him a legit fantasy star? I wouldn't take him in the first round, but I'd be fine taking him in the second. Another worry is how well he played without Aaron Rodgers. He had to carry the Packers last year when Rodgers was hurt, but will he be as needed this year if Rodgers is healthy?
8. Demarco Murray- I know, I know. He's a Dallas Cowboy. But he also averaged 5.2 yards per carry last year, 3rd best in the NFL, and got more than 21 touches per game down the stretch in 2013. The biggest concern is injuries though. Murray has had plenty of them, but when he's healthy he's exactly what you want in a running back. Not a guy I'd take in the first round, but definitely a second rounder.
9. Arian Foster- Another guy who has injury issues. Foster missed nine games last year, and isn't on a great offensive team. That may actually help him though. Outside of Andre Johnson there isn't another big name in the Houston offense other than Foster. When healthy he's one of the best in the league. Also, with the upgrades to the Houston defense, they may not be playing from behind (at least not as far as behind) as often this season so he could see a good amount of work. Also, with Ben Tate no longer in the picture, the talent drop-off between Foster and his backup is much larger.
10. Zac Stacy, Giovanni Bernard, Alfred Morris- All three of these guys are going to be solid running backs. None of them however are going to be fantasy superstars. They're all guys you can plug in week after week with confidence, but don't expect them to light up the scoreboard. They're all very safe second round picks, but aren't on great teams and/or aren't the featured offensive weapon on their team. Other names to put here are Reggie Bush, Le'Veon Bell, and Doug Martin.
As I said before, you need two starting running backs in your lineup every week. You're not going to have AP and McCoy, unless you're in a league that is nothing but embarrassing, so you need to plan on having a star and a starter you'll find later in your draft. Running backs are the lifeblood of a successful fantasy team, don't wait until the later rounds to take your starters, that's a death sentence. The drop-off between good fantasy RBs and decent ones is massive. Take a running back in the first or second round, then find your second starter a few rounds later.
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