NFL Week 5 Betting Trends

It's been a strange NFL season so far. There are only two undefeated teams through 4 weeks, the Cardinals and Bengals. The Patriots looks downright awful, the Cowboys look competent, the Packers went from looking terrible to looking pretty good in the matter of about a week, and the Saints are a huge question mark. All of this combines to make it rather difficult to have a great deal of confidence when it comes to putting money down on some games. But fear not, RJ Bell of Pregame.com has sent out his week 5 betting trends, and there are some good ones in there. 

• Bengals: the away team has covered only 4 of last 22 Cincinnati games
• Bills: the home team in Buffalo games 17-4 ATS
• Broncos: Peyton Manning off a bye has won 8 straight ATS
• Chiefs on road: lost only 1 of last 11 ATS
• Cowboys off a win, then favored the next game: 2-13 ATS
• Cowboys as home favorite: covered only 6 of last 25
• Eagles at home: covered only 7 of last 30
• Falcons off a loss by 6 or more points: 20-4 ATS
• Lions off a win: covered the next game only 5 of 19
• Patriots: home underdog for only second time since 2005
• Patriots: off a loss as a favorite, then an underdog the next week: 17-2 ATS
• Patriots: off a loss as a favorite, then playing a winning team the next week: 14-1 ATS
• Saints (with Payton coaching): have not lost a game at home against the spread since the 2010 
• season! (18-0-1 ATS)
• Saints (with Payton coaching) when favored by more than a touchdown: 14-2 ATS
• Saints off a road loss: 21-4 ATS the next game
• Steelers as a road favorite of 6 or more points: lost 10 straight ATS
• Titans have not covered a game at home in over one calendar year (0-7 ATS since 9/29/13)

There's a lot of good information in there, but some of it has to be taken with a grain of salt. The Patriots for example, would you put any money on them this week? Sure, teams bounce back after bad losses all the time. But those teams typically have an impressive offense who just ran into a better defense. Impressive is not a word you'll hear anyone use when describing the Pats offense. I do like the Saints this weekend. They're -10 at home against the Bucs and they need a big win after last week's dismantling in Dallas. I also really like the Steelers this weekend despite the trend. They're -6.5 on the road, but they're in Jacksonville. I'm fairly certain you could take the top 50 college players and they'd be able to give the Jaguars a decent game right now, the Jags are that bad. 

Once again, thanks to RJ Bell of Pregame.com for taking the time to put this information together. 

Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports

Super Bowl Picks And Predictions

I've put this off long enough, it's time to make my Super Bowl predictions. I've looked at all the "experts" picks, all the stats I can find, and talked to my friends. I'm picking the San Francisco 49ers to beat the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.

This boiled down to one thing really. The Ravens have trouble stopping the run. They haven't played a team in the playoffs that has an above average ground game. San Francisco clearly has an above average rushing attack. Everyone keeps talking about how Kaepernick can't throw from the pocket, so all the Ravens have to do is contain him. Did anyone watch the 49ers beat the Falcons? There was only one play called that was a designed QB run. Kaepernick threw for 233 yards. That's not a ton, but the thing about the SF offense is they are versatile. In that game against Atlanta, Kap threw for a TD, Gore rushed for two, and LaMichael James rushed for two. Oh, and that TD that Kap threw was to Vernon Davis. So now in addition to having Crabtree and Moss, Kap has finally found Davis. This isn't an offense that can be stopped by playing one scheme. You have to be ready for anything and everything.

Now I'm not saying the Ravens defense isn't good. Lewis, Suggs, and Reed are all great. But I don't think they're fast enough to keep up with the SF offense. They stack the box to stop Gore, Kap either uses his legs or hits one of his 3 more than capable receivers. I just don't think the Ravens have seen anything like the 49ers offense. In fact, the two games they played against "running" quarterbacks, I prefer the term mobile but whatever, they lost. In week 2 they lost to the Eagles, giving up 371 yards in the air to Michael Vick. They contained him on the ground, but didn't do squat down the field. Yes that game was ages ago, but it's important. Also, they lost to the Redskins. This was in week 14, so much more recent. RGIII hit them for 242 yards in the air and 34 yards on the ground. Clearly they were more prepared for a mobile quarterback. Problem is, they gave up 129 yards on the ground to Alfred Morris, a rookie. That 'Skins offense is fairly similar to San Fran's. Baltimore had trouble against Washington, I have no reason to believe they won't have trouble against San Francisco.

If I was a gambling man, which I am 100%, my money is/will be on San Francisco. I like San Fran at -3.5 and I definitely like the over at 47.5, in fact I'd probably take the over if it was 51 or lower. My final score prediction is 34-24 and my MVP pick is of course Kaepernick.

Follow me on Twitter- @TwittinSports